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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediction: Labo is going to flop

 

Sales prediction of Labo (in millions)?

<1 17 13.49%
 
1 12 9.52%
 
2 22 17.46%
 
3 16 12.70%
 
4 5 3.97%
 
5 16 12.70%
 
6 2 1.59%
 
7 1 0.79%
 
8 1 0.79%
 
>8 34 26.98%
 
Total:126

It really depends on the games and how its marketed. The potential is there and now Nintendo "just" need to make it the next big hit.



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How is 2 million sales a flop?



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quickrick said:
Mnementh said:

OK, which games are a flop at 2-3 million? A new GTA selling 2-3 million would be certainlya flop, but that is the outlier. 2-3 million for something new, something that needs crafting skills (which isn't that common among gamers), something pretty expensive as it contains physical stuff - this is not  bad.

 I think nintendo invested a lot into this project and looking for a kinect like hit.

I doubt it. It probably had a small core team of about 10-20 people for one or two years, prototyping ideas and a big push with more personnel at the end to create a polished product. I think development was cheaper than for the new Kirby or Yoshi.

That's the point here: ideas are pretty cheap, if you have the right ideas. Development of assets like models and textures takes a lot of manual work.



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Now 2-3 millions is a flop.... especially for labo? People are getting ridiculous



I think it will be big.. and sell Switch to alot of people that dont normally buys videogame consoles.. a bit like wii-fit
So my prediction..
5 million 2018
20 million 2019
And more than 50 million lifetime
(I expect atleast 5 diffenrent sku's.. and the "garage" part to becomme bigger)



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Every time I think something from Nintendo will flop, it's ends up surprising me. Most recent example was Splatoon. So I'm going to say that this will be a success :P



quickrick said:
VGPolyglot said:

What do you consider to be a flop?

2-3 million.

2-3 million would be amazing, I'd say less than 1 million is a flop. 



think-man said:
quickrick said:

2-3 million.

2-3 million would be amazing, I'd say less than 1 million is a flop. 

seems like every game nintedo releases is a big hit, i really doubt nintedo would be happy with 2-3 million, they have been pushing it like crazy saying its there next big thing to attract new people to buy switch.



think-man said:
quickrick said:

2-3 million.

2-3 million would be amazing, I'd say less than 1 million is a flop. 

Yeah exactly. Nintendo will be putting a good amount of marketing to the Labo, so under 1 million would be a flop. But anything over 2 million for a peripheral type of thing like Labo would be great sales.

Nintendo's angle is probably to get Switch owners to buy it for their kids (probably mostly during the holidays), and then they kids get introduced to the Switch and they want their own Switch or at least get their parents to pick up a couple more kiddie games they wouldn't normally get like maybe Kirby and Yoshi. If Labo sells a couple million and by doing so expands Switch's child market and so generates a few hundred thousand extra Switch's sold, and a few million extra non-Labo games sold, I'd call that a huge success.



quickrick said:

seems like every game nintedo releases is a big hit, i really doubt nintedo would be happy with 2-3 million, they have been pushing it like crazy saying its there next big thing to attract new people to buy switch.

If its simple enough and fun, then it could be a huge hit. Marketing it the right way is also a key to success. Its strange that I can see it doing anywhere between 1 million and 234 million :O  Have they been really pushing it that hard? I think they could push it harder and maybe they will. Its still early.