Console wars is serious business! No joking allowed!

I dont think Sea of Theives is it, imo its gonna be a "No man's sky".
it ll do well enough at launch and be dead within a month or so.

Crackdown 3? still looks really crappy. Like a last gen game, and gameplay doesnt really wow anyone.

The Last Night wow'ed me with its 2.5D pixle art, but is it something that ll push hardware? I dont know.

Maybe State of Decay 2 does it? Imo it lacks ambition, its all been done a 100 times before.
Days Gone atleast has new gameplay that make its zombie game stand out.

Hopefully MS had something unannounced up their sleaves that ll do it.

This. People place way too much emphasis on Gens

Yeah idk, it just seems like MS has run out of things for YoY increases.

I think price cuts to $199 & $399 for the S & X models can help keep 2018 sales in the same ~8m baseline its had from 2014-2017 but after that i expect a moderate drop each following year.

End of 2017 ~36m

End of 2018 ~44m

End of 2019 ~50m

End of 2020 ~54m

Lifetime ~57m

Yeah it's pretty much just a matter of time. 

I say around mid-2019.

And so begins the 2018 battle! Will be interesting to see how the Switch sells after the holiday hype wears down since there's no guaranteed heavy hitter in it's first 6 months, whereas last year it had one every quarter. I think the 2018 line-up even if Kirby/Mario Tennis/Labo/DKCTF don't become huge sellers is still good enough to allow the momentum from the amazing 2017 line-up to persist, but we shall see!

Labo has the potential to be a killer app I reckon, though I think it's the only release confirmed for the first half of the year with any real system selling power.

Agreed, it doesnt have a mega hit like BotW or MK8D but it seems like it will have a handful of small-medium sized hits in Q1/Q2.

Dragon Quest Builders, Bayonetta 1+2, Payday 2, Kirby: Star Allies, Hyrule Warriors, DKC: Tropical Freeze, Dark Souls Remastered, Mario Tennis Aces

I think most of them have a decent shot of crossing 1 million and thats not including the dozens of quality indie titles that will release or the big potential X-factor, Labo which could be a huge casual/kid/family hit this year.

Im not worried at all about Switch losing momentum in the first half of 2018.

While none of the other games are individually big system sellers, i believe that combined they have the ability to prevent momentum from dropping.

Also need to consider that last years big titles will still likely be pushing hardware to an extent.