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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo End of Jan. Investor Discussion Prediction Thread

Nintendo earnings will be revealed at 07:00 GMT today, Source by Takashi Mochizuki tech reporter from WSJ



     


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Sure, I'll join in on the guessing game fun

Switch: Just over 14 million* (around 14.5)

Zelda: 8 million **
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe: 7.6 million **
Odyssey: 7 million **
Splatoon: 4.5 million**
ARMS: 2.25 million
1-2-Switch: 1.75
Xenoblade: Less than 1 million (though I expect that it will break 1 million by 3/31/17)

* Switch sales: As of 12/3/17, Nintendo sold 4.8 million units in the US. In December, they sold 1.5 million. Since there is some overlap with the 4.8 and the 1.5 by three days, it should be about 6.2 million in the US. According to Nintendo's Q2 numbers, the US makes up about 40 percent of all Switch sales. So 6.2 divided by 40% is 15.5. I think this number is a tad high. If you look at Japan, they have sold about 3.3 million. If you take their 27 percent, sales would be 12.2 million (if I use 25%, it comes out to 13.2 so you can see what I'm dealing with here). It wouldn't be that low since the US sold around 6 million and 40% of 12.2 is 4.8. Essentially I'm taking the difference between the two and applying some judgment. If I was to give a reasonable range, it would be as low as 13.5 million and as high as 15 million.

** Game sales - These are all based on the above
Zelda - 55%
Mario - 60%
MK8 - 55%
Splatoon - 20%

For Mario, I assumed the rest of the world was closer to 40% as 3D Mario mostly sells in the US. For Splatoon, I weighted the game to 50% in Japan (though Splatoon 2 came out lower than I expect) ARMS, 1-2-Switch and Xenoblade are all just educated guesses.

Here are the sources I used
https://mynintendonews.com/2018/01/04/us-over-60-of-nintendo-switch-owners-own-super-mario-odyssey/
https://www.polygon.com/2017/12/29/16829726/nintendo-switch-sales-numbers-japan-fastest-selling-console
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2017/171030e.pdf
https://mynintendonews.com/2018/01/04/us-nintendo-switch-becomes-the-fastest-selling-home-video-game-system-of-all-time/
http://www.ign.com/articles/2018/01/18/nintendo-switch-sold-15-million-units-in-the-us-last-month



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Shikamo said:
Nintendo earnings will be revealed at 07:00 GMT today, Source by Takashi Mochizuki tech reporter from WSJ

Which is in 5 hours I think right ? 

And interesting, he said we will hear a planning for the year so we might have a schedule for Metroid/Pokémon if they are releasing this year and the online service.



Right at Midnight for me. (Arizona is currently at Mountain Standard Time)



VideoGameAccountant said:

Sure, I'll join in on the guessing game fun

Switch: Just over 14 million* (around 14.5)

Zelda: 8 million **
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe: 7.6 million **
Odyssey: 7 million **
Splatoon: 4.5 million**
ARMS: 2.25 million
1-2-Switch: 1.75
Xenoblade: Less than 1 million (though I expect that it will break 1 million by 3/31/17)

* Switch sales: As of 12/3/17, Nintendo sold 4.8 million units in the US. In December, they sold 1.5 million. Since there is some overlap with the 4.8 and the 1.5 by three days, it should be about 6.2 million in the US. According to Nintendo's Q2 numbers, the US makes up about 40 percent of all Switch sales. So 6.2 divided by 40% is 15.5. I think this number is a tad high. If you look at Japan, they have sold about 3.3 million. If you take their 27 percent, sales would be 12.2 million (if I use 25%, it comes out to 13.2 so you can see what I'm dealing with here). It wouldn't be that low since the US sold around 6 million and 40% of 12.2 is 4.8. Essentially I'm taking the difference between the two and applying some judgment. If I was to give a reasonable range, it would be as low as 13.5 million and as high as 15 million.

** Game sales - These are all based on the above
Zelda - 55%
Mario - 60%
MK8 - 55%
Splatoon - 20%

For Mario, I assumed the rest of the world was closer to 40% as 3D Mario mostly sells in the US. For Splatoon, I weighted the game to 50% in Japan (though Splatoon 2 came out lower than I expect) ARMS, 1-2-Switch and Xenoblade are all just educated guesses.

Here are the sources I used
https://mynintendonews.com/2018/01/04/us-over-60-of-nintendo-switch-owners-own-super-mario-odyssey/
https://www.polygon.com/2017/12/29/16829726/nintendo-switch-sales-numbers-japan-fastest-selling-console
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2017/171030e.pdf
https://mynintendonews.com/2018/01/04/us-nintendo-switch-becomes-the-fastest-selling-home-video-game-system-of-all-time/
http://www.ign.com/articles/2018/01/18/nintendo-switch-sold-15-million-units-in-the-us-last-month

Switch passed 4.8 million in the US as of December 30th, not December 3rd. Although, judging from the NPD data, it's closer to 4.9 million than 4.8 million.



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tbone51 said:
Cloudman said:
Also, for my predictions: I hope this isn't the case, but I'm feeling Fire Emblem could be delayed to 2019, considering we've yet to see or hear anything about it. If we don't see anything about it by E3, I feel it's gonna be pushed back, which I don't want at all.

Switch: 14 mil about
BOTW: 6.5 mil
MK8D: 6 mil
Mario Odyssey: 6 mil
Splatoon 2: 4 mil

FYI for SMO

 

Japan 1.4mil (excludea digital)

US 3mil

France 500k+

UK 300k+

Germany minimum 200k

 

All sold (that right there is 5.4mil sold through), 6mil shouldnt be the floor so change that :P

I had a feeling some or most of my predictions sucked, so I think I'll change it to 6.5 or 7 mil at least?



 

              

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Hope we get confirmation that Xenoblade 2 has sold over 1 million copies tonight and tomorrow at least some details for the paid system.



animegaming said:

Hope we get confirmation that Xenoblade 2 has sold over 1 million copies tonight and tomorrow at least some details for the paid system.

I wouldn't hold out for a 1 million already but it should be on track for that in the not too distant future.



Will Mario and Rabbids sales be given out? Or is that for Ubisoft to disclose?



newwil7l said:
Will Mario and Rabbids sales be given out? Or is that for Ubisoft to disclose?

From what I can tell, it's Ubisoft's. Nintendo might reveal it if it sells a million in Japan as it publishes it there. However that isn't out yet.



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