Nintendo End of Jan. Investor Discussion Prediction Thread

[VideoGameAccountant]

Sure, I'll join in on the guessing game fun

Switch: Just over 14 million* (around 14.5)

Zelda: 8 million **
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe: 7.6 million **
Odyssey: 7 million **
Splatoon: 4.5 million**
ARMS: 2.25 million
1-2-Switch: 1.75
Xenoblade: Less than 1 million (though I expect that it will break 1 million by 3/31/17)

* Switch sales: As of 12/3/17, Nintendo sold 4.8 million units in the US. In December, they sold 1.5 million. Since there is some overlap with the 4.8 and the 1.5 by three days, it should be about 6.2 million in the US. According to Nintendo's Q2 numbers, the US makes up about 40 percent of all Switch sales. So 6.2 divided by 40% is 15.5. I think this number is a tad high. If you look at Japan, they have sold about 3.3 million. If you take their 27 percent, sales would be 12.2 million (if I use 25%, it comes out to 13.2 so you can see what I'm dealing with here). It wouldn't be that low since the US sold around 6 million and 40% of 12.2 is 4.8. Essentially I'm taking the difference between the two and applying some judgment. If I was to give a reasonable range, it would be as low as 13.5 million and as high as 15 million.

** Game sales - These are all based on the above
Zelda - 55%
Mario - 60%
MK8 - 55%
Splatoon - 20%

For Mario, I assumed the rest of the world was closer to 40% as 3D Mario mostly sells in the US. For Splatoon, I weighted the game to 50% in Japan (though Splatoon 2 came out lower than I expect) ARMS, 1-2-Switch and Xenoblade are all just educated guesses.

Here are the sources I used
https://mynintendonews.com/2018/01/04/us-over-60-of-nintendo-switch-owners-own-super-mario-odyssey/
https://www.polygon.com/2017/12/29/16829726/nintendo-switch-sales-numbers-japan-fastest-selling-console
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2017/171030e.pdf
https://mynintendonews.com/2018/01/04/us-nintendo-switch-becomes-the-fastest-selling-home-video-game-system-of-all-time/
http://www.ign.com/articles/2018/01/18/nintendo-switch-sold-15-million-units-in-the-us-last-month