Nintendo End of Jan. Investor Discussion Prediction Thread

newwil7l

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newwil7l on 30 January 2018

Teeqoz said:

No delays or new games will be announced, that's for sure.

As for my predictions:

Switch total shipments - 14.3 million

BOTW Switch total shipments - 6.3 million

MK8D total shipments - 6.7 million

Super Mario Oddysey total shipments - 5 million

Splatoon 2 total shipements - 4.7 million

I think my predictions are sorta reasonable, but I didn't dig for the data that could make them more accurate (NDP announcements, and I know Nintendo France has said some stuff, + BUI sales awards.

I think I'll be within a margin of +- 500k on all though

You are really low balling Odyssey

tbone51

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tbone51 on 30 January 2018

Cloudman said:
Also, for my predictions: I hope this isn't the case, but I'm feeling Fire Emblem could be delayed to 2019, considering we've yet to see or hear anything about it. If we don't see anything about it by E3, I feel it's gonna be pushed back, which I don't want at all.

Switch: 14 mil about
BOTW: 6.5 mil
MK8D: 6 mil
Mario Odyssey: 6 mil
Splatoon 2: 4 mil

FYI for SMO

Japan 1.4mil (excludea digital)

US 3mil

France 500k+

UK 300k+

Germany minimum 200k

All sold (that right there is 5.4mil sold through), 6mil shouldnt be the floor so change that :P

Asriel

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Asriel on 30 January 2018

Earnings release is tomorrow, yes?

Honestly, I wonder if a lot of people are low-balling the software numbers. Kart, Odyssey, Zelda and Splatoon 2 all have high attach rates (in that order).

Switch: 14.4 million shipped
3DS: 72 million shipped

Mario Kart 8 DX: 7.5 million (estimating ~45% of new users buying)
Super Mario Odyssey: 7 million (estimating ~50% attach-rate to Switch install base)
Zelda: Breath of the Wild: 6.8 million (estimating ~30% of new users have bought Zelda since September)
Splatoon 2: 5 million (estimating ~20% of new users bought it)
Arms: 1.6 million

I expect Xenoblade Chronicles 2 and Fire Emblem Warriors to join the million-sellers club at the end of the financial year.

I also wonder if Nintendo will take the opportunity to clarify some release windows - such as shifting "Pokemon RPG" from "2018 or later" to either "2018" or "TBA"; and whether or not Metroid Prime 4 and Bayonetta 3 are "TBA" or "2019". Finally, I'd hope for a full Direct sometime soon.

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fedfed on 30 January 2018

Switch: 14.3M
Odyssey: 7.1M
BOTW: 7.1M
MK8: 6.8M
Splatoon 2: 4.9M
Arms: 1.8M
1-2 Switch: 1.7M
Xeno2: 1.1M

3DS: 72.4M
Pokemon: 6.1M
Mario Luigi: 1M

Switch!!!

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LipeJJ on 30 January 2018

How many hours until it now?

Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

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alejollorente10 on 30 January 2018

Thanks :)

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Jumpin on 30 January 2018

Nintendo Switch will have sold over one MILLION units.
Zelda Breath of the Wild will have sold over one BILLION copies.

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Bofferbrauer2 on 30 January 2018

Ok, here's my prediction:

Switch Shipments: 15.4M

MK8D: 7.2M

SMO: 8.5M

Splatoon 2: 5.8M

BotW: 6.2M

Arms: 1.8M

Mario & Rabbit (dunno if they will show figures of it or not since it's technically an Ubisoft title): 1.6M

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 30 January 2018

The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

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takoyaki7 on 30 January 2018

Switch 15.61M

NS sales US+JP（NPD+Famitsu）
Q1 1.43million　Total
Q2 1.15million　2.58million
Q3 1.47million　4.05million
Q4 4.24million　8.29million

NS shipped
Q1　2.74million　Total
Q2　1.96million　4.70million
Q3　2.93million　7.63million

Calculate every quarter
170% to 199%　Q4　7.20 to 8.43million

Total 14.83 to 16.06 million units

Last edited by takoyaki7 - on 30 January 2018