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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediction: The Switch will become the best selling console yet!

I think this thread needs an update.

Also, all those who still thought in 2018 that the Switch wouldn't even outsell the Wii...

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 06 April 2022

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Bofferbrauer2 said:

I think this thread needs an update.

Also, all those who still thought in 2018 that the Switch wouldn't even outsell the Wii...

I was planning on updating when Nintendo releases their report which closes out their fiscal year.  



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Wman1996 said:

Up until 2019 or so (maybe even early 2020), I would've laughed at this notion. Now, it's not a bold prediction. I still don't think it will happen. To me, there are going to have to be some key factors in place to make Switch pass the PS2's total of 157.68 million units. All or several of these factors need to happen...
1. There needs to be an SKU of Switch that reaches $99.99 or less. It doesn't need to happen too soon. It could even wait until when the Switch's successor launches or after that.
2. Some massive unannounced titles like Mario Kart 9, Nintendogs, Super Mario Odyssey 2, or Pokemon Gen IX.
3. Switch's successor doesn't launch until at least Q1 2023, and later than that would be better for the Switch's sales.
4. Switch's successor doesn't explode in popularity right away (or Nintendo can't make enough to meet demand) and eat away a ton of the Switch's sales

Number 3 is pretty much guaranteed.

As for number 2, Nintendo hasn't announced much during the pandemic but instead said that many things were in the works, so I guess we'll get a nice load of game announcement at their E3 presentation this year.

And about Number 1, does it really? 3 Reasons why I think this doesn't have to be:

  1. If you include the inflation, $149.99 would be more comparable to the cheapest PS2 price, so let's set this as a more realistic bar. But even then,
  2. Did the PS2 and DS really sold that many consoles at that price tag to make much of a difference? I very much doubt it.
  3. The much cheaper Lite gets outsold 4:1 on a normal, non-supply limited day in Japan by the $100 more expensive base model, and I'm sure the rest of the world have similar ratios. So I think the value proposition is much more important than just the raw price.

Actually, one thing we can comment on is this topic that was discussed about a year ago.  If you look at the 4 points mentioned 1 and 4 are still too early to tell.  However 2 and 3 have very clearly happened.  Switch's successor is not coming early next year.  As for software, he specifically mentions MK9 and Pokemon Gen 9, and we have Pokemon Gen 9 coming this year and massive MK8 dlc.  We also have Splatoon 3 this year and BotW 2 next Spring.  Lastly we have Switch Sports which has the potential to move more hardware than any of these other heavy hitters, because it could reach a new customer base that the Switch hasn't reached yet.

Other than that, I want to say that Switch is in its 6th year, and it still seems too early for a price cut.  



The_Liquid_Laser said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Number 3 is pretty much guaranteed.

As for number 2, Nintendo hasn't announced much during the pandemic but instead said that many things were in the works, so I guess we'll get a nice load of game announcement at their E3 presentation this year.

And about Number 1, does it really? 3 Reasons why I think this doesn't have to be:

  1. If you include the inflation, $149.99 would be more comparable to the cheapest PS2 price, so let's set this as a more realistic bar. But even then,
  2. Did the PS2 and DS really sold that many consoles at that price tag to make much of a difference? I very much doubt it.
  3. The much cheaper Lite gets outsold 4:1 on a normal, non-supply limited day in Japan by the $100 more expensive base model, and I'm sure the rest of the world have similar ratios. So I think the value proposition is much more important than just the raw price.

Actually, one thing we can comment on is this topic that was discussed about a year ago.  If you look at the 4 points mentioned 1 and 4 are still too early to tell.  However 2 and 3 have very clearly happened.  Switch's successor is not coming early next year.  As for software, he specifically mentions MK9 and Pokemon Gen 9, and we have Pokemon Gen 9 coming this year and massive MK8 dlc.  We also have Splatoon 3 this year and BotW 2 next Spring.  Lastly we have Switch Sports which has the potential to move more hardware than any of these other heavy hitters, because it could reach a new customer base that the Switch hasn't reached yet.

Other than that, I want to say that Switch is in its 6th year, and it still seems too early for a price cut.  

With how the inflation is going, I'm not expecting any price cut coming anytime soon.

At a local store I could get the LCD Switch 30€ cheaper (270€ vs 300€ everywhere else), which is pretty much like a price cut for me already, and I don't expect the main Switch model (as in, non-lite or potential similar future model) to ever go under 250€/$. Electronic parts have become much more expensive in the last 2-3 years, which is why I don't expect any of the current gen consoles to get much in terms of price cuts during their lifetime at all, as instead of becoming cheaper to produce, most of them are actually more expensive for the producers than during their respective releases.



Now that Nintendo's latest annual report has been released, I figured I'd post some info on the Switch's overall performance.  Let me know if there is any other kind of data that you'd like to see from Nintendo's financial reports on Switch or from the past 6 years in general.

Switch annual sales performance (yen amounts in millions)

FY Operating Profit (yen) Net Sales (yen) R&D expenses (yen) Digital sales (yen) 1M+ sellers (1st) 1M+ sellers (3rd)
2017                                29,362                 489,095                              59,197  ?                                 1  ? 
2018                              177,577             1,055,682                              64,032  ?                                 9  ? 
2019                              249,701             1,200,560                              69,628                      118,800                              15  ? 
2020                              352,370             1,308,519                              84,100                      204,100                              18                                 9
2021                              640,634             1,758,910                              93,200                      344,100                              22                              14
2022                              592,760             1,695,344                           102,100                      359,600                              26                              13

Switch Regional Statistics (hardware and software in millions)

Japan hardware software New titles
2017 0.6 0.89 9
2018 3.78 12.26 74
2019 3.85 21.48 215
2020 5.21 32.56 260
2021 6.6 45.02 291
2022 5.19 42.14 327
total 25.23 154.35 1176

Americas hardware software New titles
2017 1.2 2.86 10
2018 5.94 27.52 95
2019 6.88 53.94 280
2020 8.11 74.28 313
2021 11.15 102.42 348
2022 8.76 108.27 361
total 42.04 369.29 1407

EU+ROW hardware software New titles
2017 0.94 1.71 9
2018 5.33 23.73 101
2019 6.23 43.13 269
2020 7.71 61.88 331
2021 11.08 83.44 325
2022 9.11 84.66 382
total 40.4 298.55 1417

EU & ROW Split by Region (last 3 FY only)

Europe hardware software New titles
2020 5.34 50.17 331
2021 7.15 66.24 325
2022 6.02 65.78 382
total 18.51 182.19 1038

ROW hardware software
2020 2.37 11.71
2021 3.93 17.2
2022 3.09 18.88
total 9.39 47.79
Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 10 May 2022

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Kakadu18 said:

Now I think the Switch will end up between 160 and 180mil. I'm convinced it will outsell the PS2.

I don't think it will actually come close to 180mil, but I'm still convinced it'll outsell the PS2.



If it does reach 128 million by end of this year and Nintendo keeps it alive for 2 more years and maintains 18 to 20 million units per year, then it will easily beat ps2 and get close to 170 million



Still looking like a crazy prediction, but much less so than it seemed at the time.



It is remarkable that the switch is doing all of this without a price cut thus far.



The chip and semiconductor shortages are why I now think this is likely. Nintendo statement this week that the issue is not expected to be resolved soon signals to me that whatever Nintendo's next console will be, it's a long way off. I don't think they'll release a successor to the Switch as long as this problem continues, and while Switch sales will also be affected by these shortages, it won't be to the extent a brand new console would be affected. So Switch will have more years as the only Nintendo console on the market and end up with a lifespan more like a Sony console than a normal Nintendo console. It needs 2 more years of 20 million sales to get in spitting distance of the DS and PS2, and it looks like it'll have enough time to do it now.