Prediction: The Switch will become the best selling console yet!

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Wman1996 said:

Up until 2019 or so (maybe even early 2020), I would've laughed at this notion. Now, it's not a bold prediction. I still don't think it will happen. To me, there are going to have to be some key factors in place to make Switch pass the PS2's total of 157.68 million units. All or several of these factors need to happen...
1. There needs to be an SKU of Switch that reaches $99.99 or less. It doesn't need to happen too soon. It could even wait until when the Switch's successor launches or after that.
2. Some massive unannounced titles like Mario Kart 9, Nintendogs, Super Mario Odyssey 2, or Pokemon Gen IX.
3. Switch's successor doesn't launch until at least Q1 2023, and later than that would be better for the Switch's sales.
4. Switch's successor doesn't explode in popularity right away (or Nintendo can't make enough to meet demand) and eat away a ton of the Switch's sales

Number 3 is pretty much guaranteed.

As for number 2, Nintendo hasn't announced much during the pandemic but instead said that many things were in the works, so I guess we'll get a nice load of game announcement at their E3 presentation this year.

And about Number 1, does it really? 3 Reasons why I think this doesn't have to be:

1. If you include the inflation, $149.99 would be more comparable to the cheapest PS2 price, so let's set this as a more realistic bar. But even then,
2. Did the PS2 and DS really sold that many consoles at that price tag to make much of a difference? I very much doubt it.
3. The much cheaper Lite gets outsold 4:1 on a normal, non-supply limited day in Japan by the $100 more expensive base model, and I'm sure the rest of the world have similar ratios. So I think the value proposition is much more important than just the raw price.

Actually, one thing we can comment on is this topic that was discussed about a year ago.  If you look at the 4 points mentioned 1 and 4 are still too early to tell.  However 2 and 3 have very clearly happened.  Switch's successor is not coming early next year.  As for software, he specifically mentions MK9 and Pokemon Gen 9, and we have Pokemon Gen 9 coming this year and massive MK8 dlc.  We also have Splatoon 3 this year and BotW 2 next Spring.  Lastly we have Switch Sports which has the potential to move more hardware than any of these other heavy hitters, because it could reach a new customer base that the Switch hasn't reached yet.

Other than that, I want to say that Switch is in its 6th year, and it still seems too early for a price cut.