The chip and semiconductor shortages are why I now think this is likely. Nintendo statement this week that the issue is not expected to be resolved soon signals to me that whatever Nintendo's next console will be, it's a long way off. I don't think they'll release a successor to the Switch as long as this problem continues, and while Switch sales will also be affected by these shortages, it won't be to the extent a brand new console would be affected. So Switch will have more years as the only Nintendo console on the market and end up with a lifespan more like a Sony console than a normal Nintendo console. It needs 2 more years of 20 million sales to get in spitting distance of the DS and PS2, and it looks like it'll have enough time to do it now.
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