Switch has no competition in the handheld market. So there is a monopoly there. Also the Switch seems to be doing better than the Wii U so sales numbers should be higher than 3DS + Wii U every year. My money is on 2021. Probably late 2021.

Just mind that your prediction depends on it tracking a bit ahead of the PS4 in order to do so. However, I admit that it isn't actually impossible (the Wii did it by a much bigger margin). Sony consoles seem to be less front loaded than some of Nintendo's last machines, so the Switch doesn't have to outsell PS4 lifetime numbers and could just outpace it.

I am assuming that competition may have an impact on the Switch because PS5/X2 would come with new and shiny features that could make Switch seem outdated. If we look at what the current gen did: better multitasking, video recording, social media integration, I would say that the new console made PS360 seem quite dated not only in visuals, but also in functionality.

But, once more, Nintendo may found a different market segment that would allow the Switch to basically ignore what is happening on the rest of the market. It's similar to the Wii on that aspect. I would say that the Wii seems to have suffered more with the rise of smart devices than with whatever Sony and MS were doing at the time. So, you may be right here, but we will have to wait a few years to discover.

100% agree with that, we can't be even sure if it will actually do it. But that's what makes this thread more fun, it's a much harder prediction since we don't have a lot of data for the Switch. After 2018, I think it will be way too easy to get this prediction right with a error margin of less than 1 or 1.5 years.

I think that the Switch will sell 60-80M lifetime, and the 3DS will probably end a little bit below 80M too.

It's slightly more likely that the Switch won't outsell the 3DS, but it's impossible to tell right now.

I doubt it will be that easy. A lot will depend on when the 3DS and the Switch get discontinued.

Its nearly impossiblr to tell.
they could sell 60 milion (which is still a step up cause ninty then sold essentially 60 mil consoles in terms of earned money- 1 milion consoles earn more than 1 million handhelds) in the worst possible scenario, a mid ball estimate would be 80 million, and highballing it would mean literall wii level sales.

Well yeah, we won't really have CONCRETE evidence for a few years of what the deciding factors were among Switch owners. We're projecting here, though, so we mostly have past experiences to base our assumptions on.

I think the importance of 3rd party support will vary by region. In my mind, Nintendo can provide enough for Japan on their own with just some support from franchises like Monster Hunter to keep them interested. In NA and Europe, though, third party has always been more important.

Many, if not most console players in the west spend the majority of their time playing multiplats. It's a rare day that I see anyone on my PS4 friend list playing a platform exclusive and, thinking back to the previous gen, there again we saw people primarily playing 3rd party games with a mix of exclusives. It's the CoDs, BFs, ACs, FIFA/madden/nba2ks, GTAs and so forth that the more casual gamers, who make up most of the community, spend most of their time playing.

Dating back to the failure of the Turbografx in NA from a lack of 3rd party support (whereas with such support it was hugely successful in Japan), we have seen time after time in the console market that access to the big AAA multiplats is generally very important as far as selling beyond those initial enthusiasts is concerned. There have been exceptions, mainly the Wii which appealed to non-gamers and still had (often crappy) third party support, but that does not seem to be the norm. The excitement Switch owners are showing towards getting some support is rather revealing, and at the very least continued support raises the ceiling for the Switch in the long run.

The portability factor seems like the key feature that has finally allowed Nintendo to provide a console which is not as expensive but still worth purchasing multiplats for. I know I personally am excited about buying multiplats on a Nintendo system for the first time since the Gamecube, and have seen on YouTube and even among a few friends that the notion of carrying FIFA or NBA2K around with them is very attractive. 

So basically, third party support raises the ceiling and helps appeal to gamers who haven't played a Nintendo title in years. If this first wave sells well I suspect the support will be here to stay, so hopefully they do wind up selling.

I'm not sure it will, the 3DS is only showing mild signs of slowing down so it could still stick around for a long time. I'd say it'll beat 75m one day, and may even be around long enough for it to approach 80, both of which could be a tall order for Switch. I do probably have to up the 40m prediction I made way back though.

2021, 3DS ended up doing under 10 million a year in it's 4th year, I don't see the same for Switch, I also see a much higher peak year for Switch with it reaching 18 million

It won't. Unless Nintendo decides to kill of the 3DS. But a 300 dollar console is a much tougher sell than a 150 dollar portable.