| RolStoppable said: Will have to target ~75m (probably a bit lower), so Switch for calendar years with rough estimates: 2017 - 10m 2018 - 15m/Total: 25m 2019 - 20m/45m 2020 - 20m/65m 2021 - 20m/85m So 2020 will be hard to do, but 2021 looks conservative enough. I'll go with the quarter July-September 2021, so roughly 4.5 years. By the way, increased competition from upcoming other current gen consoles is a misguided assumption. Before Switch launched, it was supposed to struggle because a PS4 and XB1 could be bought for a lower price with a game included. That didn't happen at all and that's because Switch's hybrid nature creates a very distinct value proposition. Unless someone predicts Sony and/or Microsoft to go hybrid, there's no reason to believe in increased competition, especially when one can project $200 for Switch and $400 for the other consoles. Twice as expensive with no portable functionality isn't going to cut into Switch sales. |
Just mind that your prediction depends on it tracking a bit ahead of the PS4 in order to do so. However, I admit that it isn't actually impossible (the Wii did it by a much bigger margin). Sony consoles seem to be less front loaded than some of Nintendo's last machines, so the Switch doesn't have to outsell PS4 lifetime numbers and could just outpace it.
I am assuming that competition may have an impact on the Switch because PS5/X2 would come with new and shiny features that could make Switch seem outdated. If we look at what the current gen did: better multitasking, video recording, social media integration, I would say that the new console made PS360 seem quite dated not only in visuals, but also in functionality.
But, once more, Nintendo may found a different market segment that would allow the Switch to basically ignore what is happening on the rest of the market. It's similar to the Wii on that aspect. I would say that the Wii seems to have suffered more with the rise of smart devices than with whatever Sony and MS were doing at the time. So, you may be right here, but we will have to wait a few years to discover.
