I see the Switch doing between 25-40 million lifetime. No way will it catch the 3DS. The Switch still has not gotten past the 10ish million hardcore Nintendo fans that will buy anything Nintendo puts out. Once it does it sells are going to taper off quite a bit I believe.

6 months before the Switch 2 comes out.

After selling 11 million in 2017 alone, you think Switch will go on to sell between 14 and 29 million over the next six years, or an average of 2 to 5 million per year? How can one browse VGChartz and still know so little about the sales patterns of consoles?

I'm suposing that 3DS won't have a big impact on how well Switch sells. Consoles seem to not suffer with competition from older hardware. Early adopters have more money or simply are more eager to expend it on games, so they buy consoles earlier. Then you take a few years to reach a more conscious public, either due to their budget issues or simply because they want to buy platforms after the library seems good enough. Towards the end of the gen and after, you get late adopters. Basically, people who wait until a device is dirty cheap, either because they are highly budget constraint or because they are cheap parents that don't see a point in expending tons of cash on consoles for their kids.

Right now, the last ones are people buying a 3DS. Any real gamer already had a 3DS and probably is (or at least thinking about) getting a Switch.

However, the date of Switch discontinuation can be a real factor. Consoles don't get discontinuated unless their sales hit a low where it isn't profitable anymore or profits are too low. So, if Switch gets a sucessor too quick, it would stop it almost dead on its tracks and maybe destroy its chances of surpassing 3DS.

Anyway, when I said it would be too easy to do a prediction in 2018, it really was a bit of an exaggeration. But it would be far easier than now since we would have a full year of sales so people could try to fit it on the sales curve of any other console to reach a more solid estimation.

Probably before end of 2022 ?

You seriously think it will be 300 quid for the next 6-7 years?

It´s too hard to tell because I still don´t know what to expect for the Switch yet. But if my dream comes true and Nintendo release a Switch "only handeld" then i say early 2022 :)

End of 2022, after getting at least two revisions and the same number of price cuts.

2021 Q4.

Switch lite.
Switch XL.
New Switch.

I don't think it will.