When will the Switch outsell 3DS (lifetime)?

[torok]

Flilix said:

torok said:

100% agree with that, we can't be even sure if it will actually do it. But that's what makes this thread more fun, it's a much harder prediction since we don't have a lot of data for the Switch. After 2018, I think it will be way too easy to get this prediction right with a error margin of less than 1 or 1.5 years.

I doubt it will be that easy. A lot will depend on when the 3DS and the Switch get discontinued.

I'm suposing that 3DS won't have a big impact on how well Switch sells. Consoles seem to not suffer with competition from older hardware. Early adopters have more money or simply are more eager to expend it on games, so they buy consoles earlier. Then you take a few years to reach a more conscious public, either due to their budget issues or simply because they want to buy platforms after the library seems good enough. Towards the end of the gen and after, you get late adopters. Basically, people who wait until a device is dirty cheap, either because they are highly budget constraint or because they are cheap parents that don't see a point in expending tons of cash on consoles for their kids.

Right now, the last ones are people buying a 3DS. Any real gamer already had a 3DS and probably is (or at least thinking about) getting a Switch.

However, the date of Switch discontinuation can be a real factor. Consoles don't get discontinuated unless their sales hit a low where it isn't profitable anymore or profits are too low. So, if Switch gets a sucessor too quick, it would stop it almost dead on its tracks and maybe destroy its chances of surpassing 3DS.

Anyway, when I said it would be too easy to do a prediction in 2018, it really was a bit of an exaggeration. But it would be far easier than now since we would have a full year of sales so people could try to fit it on the sales curve of any other console to reach a more solid estimation.