Ask me again when it's close to 50m. Before reaching that number it will certainly be a complete failure in my eyes.

You will always hear people say something is a failure if its not number 1 on the charts. Probably same people who still say the X1 is a failure after selling 30m units etc. Its the internet.

If it doesn't then it's pretty much signals a decline of Nintendo's customer base ... 

The Switch reaching near 3DS numbers (like say 85+%) would be a relatively good result in itself but that still translates to a negative outlook on Nintendo's future since their reaching within the limits of being a sustainable business ... 

Can Nintendo keep dealing with a declining customer base especially when in a time where AAA games are getting more and more expensive to make ?

So... if the Switch sold 40 million in it's 1st year, you'd still see it as a complete failure? 10 million off 50 million is still a pretty big gap to be considered close, although you never know, even then maybe the lawsuit will take place and ban Switch sales.

I mean I get your point, and yes my example was overexaggerated to point out it's flaw, but I think if it's selling at fast pace comparable to 3DS or even PS4 at times, it's safe to also look at that too, instead of waiting potentially 3-4 years.

That would be dissapointing but not a "fail" IMO since Nintendo has streamlined their production. Their profits could surpass that of Wii U+ 3DS without meeti g their actual units, the later required 30% price cut in its first summer... 

On the other hand Switch is on track to sell 10m in its first year 9months, without a price cut, no redesign, no pocket version, no Pokemon, yokai, original Monster Hunter or much software in general.... Why would you expect it to fall short of 40m? Theres so much more to come.

I don't know, the console could be heavily frontloaded or something, and obviously it won't sit at sub-15 million units like Wii U, but I'm "feeling" that it will have a hard time reaching even 50 million units, I just don't see it selling 10M or more per year, particularly in 2018. And what's exactly the plan for that year, anyway? Assuming Pokémon doesn't come out. Can Breath of the Wild, Splatoon 2 and Odyssey keep driving sales? Hmm...Smash is on the way supposedly, but there's not much for the rest of the year.

My statement was more about that I do not consider it anything until it reaches that number. I never trust early numbers. I always knew Switch will sell very well in its first 12 months. But the market is not the same as it was 5 years ago, at least I hope so.

Nintendo consoles have a history of fizzling out fast. While the 3DS is still selling well it hasn't even reached 70m and even that it only reached thanks to multiple iterations in its life and lots and lots of double dipping. From Logic alone, if Nintendo's market hasn't shrunk, 50m should be the absolut minimum and 70m should be their lowest goal.

It has a good chance of reaching 50m LT if it has multiple iterations but 70m is a tall order.

It should also be noted that my thoughts on this are fueled by a lot of hope and optimism on my side so they are highly biased.

Honestly, with how the thing is selling, I can't even see Nintendo Nintendo-ing it up.

It's a hit, no doubt about it. When the holidays show up there's Mario and bundles. Between that time and Pokemon I don't know what Nintendo has planned but I expect Smash for Swich by summer 2018. If they can keep sales going till then, it's going to be very hard to argue it failing.

Haters?

I hope the system will succeed, so we never say goodbye to handhelds.

Switch doesn't need to sell more than that to be considered that is success. Despite fact that Switch is hybrid, its still one product, and has home console price point and also have price point of home console not of handheld. Also Switch from start is selling with profit, Wii U was selling at loss at launch, and 3DS had very early huge price drop (at that point it was selling at solid loss) in order to start selling, also there is point that with Switch Nintendo will have expenses (hardware and software R&D, game development expenses, marketing expenses...) of just one platform compared to expenses for two different platforms, in other words, Switch can easily be more profitable for Nintendo than 3DS and Wii U were combined even if it sell less than 3DS.

At this point Switch will be 60m+ seller, how much exactly (60m+, 70m+, 80m+, 90m+, 100m+) we still don't know, but will be succes in any case.