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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Anyone still seriously saying the Switch is going to fail?

Let's say that Switch only sells 40 million lifetime units, over a five year life cycle. There are no hardware revisions. But the attach rate is 12, meaning Nintendo manages to sell 480 million pieces of software. It it still a failure? Keep in mind that the GBA and 3DS only sold 4 pieces of software per system. The Wii and NES have an attach rate of 8.



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They got the hardware part right. Now it's all about games and I think Switch will do fine.



It is doing fine, much better than the WiiU.



My grammar errors are justified by the fact that I am a brazilian living in Brazil. I am also very stupid.

Switch + small Switch + Switch pro + Switch xl < 100 millions 



I think it will fail...to sale badly! Heyyyoooooo



"Trick shot? The trick is NOT to get shot." - Lucian

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fatslob-:O said:

If it doesn't then it's pretty much signals a decline of Nintendo's customer base ... 

The Switch reaching near 3DS numbers (like say 85+%) would be a relatively good result in itself but that still translates to a negative outlook on Nintendo's future since their reaching within the limits of being a sustainable business ... 

Can Nintendo keep dealing with a declining customer base especially when in a time where AAA games are getting more and more expensive to make ?

I mean, it depends on how you look at it I guess. As a few already pointed out, the same people had both a Wii U and 3DS. I know some people (including myself) who bought 2+ 3DS due to new models. We won't ever have official numbers but the Nintendo user base could only be 65 Million rather than 75 Million already. 

If it's about being sustainable, I think a user base of 30 Million would already be enough considering they make a ton of money on games. Their developed software sells so well, I don't think they have to reach a huge user base number to be profitable to the point of being worth it. 3DS & Wii U made little money (if any) on hardware at the beginning, Switch should already be making profit without considering software.

For the sake of argument though, I think anything under 50 Million will look bad on the surface. (if 3DS truly gets no successor) Looking bad and being an actual failure are different things however. 



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No one thinks it's gonna sell like the wii u.



I cannot imagine thinking that. Japan alone can help it avoid fail status. At this point I think 70+ million is very possible, especially once Pokemon comes out in 2019.



I honestly believe if Switch does not manage to sell over 80 million that it did not reach its true potential. This console, on its own merits, should be worthy of a very healthy market share. It will get revisions and price drops and a lot more software. There is no reason it should not outsell 3DS.

However, my true colors have been that it would sell Wii type numbers. I do not see DS numbers even though it will have those types of games. I think it is still too expensive at this point (the console itself but more importantly, the games) for people to have more than one in their house like they could afford to do with DS.



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the switch is going to outsell the ps4, so unless the ps4 fails the switch definitely will not fail.