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Forums - Sales Discussion - When Will The Switch Outsell the Xbox One?

 

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Never 147 21.68%
 
1st half 2018 31 4.57%
 
2nd half 2018 58 8.55%
 
1st half 2019 90 13.27%
 
2nd half 2019 140 20.65%
 
1st half 2020 64 9.44%
 
2nd half 2020 70 10.32%
 
1st half 2021 18 2.65%
 
2nd half 2021 21 3.10%
 
2022 and beyond 39 5.75%
 
Total:678
konnichiwa on 16 July 2017
curl-6 said:
Does anyone seriously think it won't outsell it in the end? Even with supply issues, Switch's first year is on track to be bigger than any year of Xbone by a significant margin. And this is just the beginning; once supply constraints are solved, and hardware revisions, price cuts, and Pokemon start to hit, the Switch will be a monster.

For me it is the same as saying (does anyone think it seriously will outsell it).  We simply can't know yet what the holiday sales will be for Xone/Switch Great sure but who wins what will the gap be? So how can we know what 18-20 will be?






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StarDoor on 16 July 2017
konnichiwa said:
curl-6 said:
Does anyone seriously think it won't outsell it in the end? Even with supply issues, Switch's first year is on track to be bigger than any year of Xbone by a significant margin. And this is just the beginning; once supply constraints are solved, and hardware revisions, price cuts, and Pokemon start to hit, the Switch will be a monster.

For me it is the same as saying (does anyone think it seriously will outsell it).  We simply can't know yet what the holiday sales will be for Xone/Switch Great sure but who wins what will the gap be? So how can we know what 18-20 will be?

Do you really expect the Switch to go from outselling the XOne 2-1 in the middle of the year to being behind in the holidays?



PotentHerbs on 16 July 2017

XOne is looking like it'll finish with 50 - 60 Million lifetime sales, Switch might not be able to outsell it lifetime. 



Kemono on 16 July 2017

Late 2020.



konnichiwa on 16 July 2017
StarDoor said:
konnichiwa said:

For me it is the same as saying (does anyone think it seriously will outsell it).  We simply can't know yet what the holiday sales will be for Xone/Switch Great sure but who wins what will the gap be? So how can we know what 18-20 will be?

Do you really expect the Switch to go from outselling the XOne 2-1 in the middle of the year to being behind in the holidays?

I am here 10 years and I saw threads as 'PS3/Xbox30 will not sell 50 million, Wii will outsell PS2 and Wiiu can outsell xone..(where wiiU was outselling xone for weeks etc) Considering the x + black friday is always good for xbox  I don't see why it is sure that during the holidays Switch will outsell the Xone. 






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StarDoor on 16 July 2017
konnichiwa said:
StarDoor said:

Do you really expect the Switch to go from outselling the XOne 2-1 in the middle of the year to being behind in the holidays?

I am here 10 years and I saw threads as 'PS3/Xbox30 will not sell 50 million, Wii will outsell PS2 and Wiiu can outsell xone..(where wiiU was outselling xone for weeks etc) Considering the x + black friday is always good for xbox  I don't see why it is sure that during the holidays Switch will outsell the Xone. 

Cool. We've also seen threads like "PS4 will outsell PS2" and "Switch will sell less than Wii U." It doesn't override reality just because some people make crazy predictions.

The XOne has sold 2.04 million so far in 2017. The Switch has sold 2.2 million more than that in 2017, despite being on the market for two fewer months. All Nintendo has to do is ship enough units. If the Switch is selling 600k per month even at its most supply constrained, then there's no reason for it to be behind during the holidays. At worst, it'll match XOne sales.



LethalP on 16 July 2017
caffeinade said:

14m this year, 20m next year.
The flash shortage will end in 2018, Nintendo will be able to cut the price then.
So I think the Switch will outsell Xbox One as of now in 2nd half 2018.
It will outpace Xbox One by end of 1st half 2019.

20 million next year? So you're expecting Wii, DS, PS2 numbers for Switch.. that isn't going to happen.



Jigsawx1 on 16 July 2017

Because is has no 3rd party support and it cant be the casual Mainstream console because the Ps4 is that. So it has the same fanbase then the wiiu had and no mariokart or splatoon can change that it would be same if someone want to tell you that the Xbox One (X) could outsell the ps4 because of a good halo 6 or GoW 5......

I think it will selll better then the WIIu perhaps it doubles or triples the sales but it wont outsell the Xone when the switch will reach 30 Million the Xone will be at 50 i think we will reach this point at the mid of 2020



Jigsawx1 on 16 July 2017
CGI-Quality said:
Jigsawx1 said:
40m lifetime is max

Why?

sorry for 2 posting.i forgot to quote.....

Because is has no 3rd party support and it cant be the casual Mainstream console because the Ps4 is that. So it has the same fanbase then the wiiu had and no mariokart or splatoon can change that it would be same if someone want to tell you that the Xbox One (X) could outsell the ps4 because of a good halo 6 or GoW 5......

I think it will selll better then the WIIu perhaps it doubles or triples the sales but it wont outsell the Xone when the switch will reach 30 Million the Xone will be at 50 i think we will reach this point at the mid of 2020



LethalP on 16 July 2017

The Xbox One will end up at around 50-60 million all said and done. The Switch will do 70-80 million in the end. I don't see it sustaining sales beyond that due to it being aimed at core gamers unlike the Wii and DS. But if I were to guess when Switch will surpass Xbox One I'd say some time in 2021, when both have sold 50 million or so.