Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Predict the Switch hardware sales for July and August !

LipeJJ said:
jason1637 said:

Yea but for July this is how I see Switch selling

Week 1- 120k

Week 2- 130k

Week 3-  230k

Week 4-  170k

This is pretty reasonable considering that the PS4 usually sells around 120-140k on a weekly basis in July and Switch will still have low shipments.

Let's take a deep breath for a moment and remember Switch sold 360k when MK8D launched. 

Mario Kart came out in April and July is slower than April in terms of sales.

Mario Kart was the Switchs second big game after Zelda.

Mario Kart is bigger then Splatoon. Splatoon is big but its not as big WW as people make it out to be. Its a huge deal in Japan but everywhere else its not a huge deal while Mario Kart is a huge game worldwide.



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jason1637 said:
LipeJJ said:

Let's take a deep breath for a moment and remember Switch sold 360k when MK8D launched. 

Mario Kart came out in April and July is slower than April in terms of sales.

Mario Kart was the Switchs second big game after Zelda.

Mario Kart is bigger then Splatoon. Splatoon is big but its not as big WW as people make it out to be. Its a huge deal in Japan but everywhere else its not a huge deal while Mario Kart is a huge game worldwide.

Are you telling me MK's port is going to to be bigger than Splatoon 2? If so, prepare for a big surprise.

Also, how did you come to the conclusion that Splatoon is not big worldwide, but only in Japan? Sales breakdown according to VGChartz:

North America: 1.58m 33.7%
+ Europe: 1.29m 27.7%
+ Japan: 1.54m 32.9%
+ Rest of the World: 0.27m 5.7%


Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

That's really hard to predict beacuse depends from stocks, but higher than May and June in any case.



915k July
1.4 million August.



Mbolibombo said:
Mnementh said:
Hmm, that prediction is more difficult, because Nintendo said that in July and August the production is finally increased: http://www.vgchartz.com/article/268531/nintendo-to-increase-switch-shipments-in-july-and-august/

Without that announcement I would have said the same as June for both months. As I assume production increase happens slowly, I think August will see more sales than July, just because of better shipments. September will probably the first months where demand is met by supply, until holidays where it will be again to less supply. So I say +10% above June in July and +20% in August.

As we have no hardware numbers yet, I have to guess there too. Let's say baseline is 150K a week. That makes it roughly 700K a month in June, 770K in July and 850K in August.

I dont think the baseline has ever been as low as 150k (according to vgc) so I think that's lowballing it a bit. I cant seem to find the thread anymore but there was a thread with all the weekly hardware sales and there was not a single one below 200k. Last week revealed had it at 170k though.

OK, now we have the 150K week. This worries me a little, because the following week should see even lower Switch-sales, if Zelda-numbers are any indication. After that the numbers in Japan recovered a bit I think. My baseline projection of 150K should be OK if it is only one week the sales dip below that line. Let's wait and see.



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July: 1.3 million
August: 900k



     


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July 1.2M
August 0.8M



Looking at the graph on this thread http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=228581&page=1 , you can see that pretty much every console has settled their baseline after their 10th week.

Now, I know the Switch suposedly has been having low stocking issues so I will take that into consideration and go with a baseline of around 190K with a relatively big bump for Splatoon week so...

July: 900K,  

August: 800K