Wii didnt manage to make 100m just because one single game (Wii Sports), there was Wii Fit, Mario Kart and NSMB, so people that saying that Switch want make Wii numbers just beacuse there is no Wii Sports like game on Switch are wrong (for the record I dont say it will make 100m but of course it has some chances).

Well that's easier to predict because PS4 is 3.5 years on market, while Switch is only one month on market and still all options are open.

shhh....let them do it...the youngins need to learn someday...

Well it very hard to outsell 155m, but otseling 100m is of course easier task.

It will be hard for Switch to outsold Wii, but definitely is too early to know for sure, but initial signs about sales and demand are all very positive.

I find the articles talking about Switch outselling the Wii lifetime sales to be just silly. We're one month in! Sure it was a great first month and there is obvious huge demand for the Switch but saying it might outsell the Wii is just ridiculous at this point. I think it has a good shot at outselling the Wii, but it could also only sell like 50 million, who knows.
After like 3 years on the market when the Wii was still selling record breaking numbers it looked like it could sell 150 million, but then the sales suddenly dried up and it limped it's way to just over 100 million as the falling prices of the 360 and PS3 kept them going long enough to actually both have really good lifetime sales even though the Wii had been destroying them in sales for the first few years.

Anyway, given that the Switch should combine their handheld and console markets, and it isn't a confusing and kinda awkward concept like the Wii U, I think it'll bring it the majority of 3DS players eventually and the console-side of its market will be a lot bigger than the Wii U. Not to mention I think it'll bring in a lot of new people like the Wii did, though far less than the Wii. For example, the last two consoles I bought were the Wii and then 360. I had no interest in buying any of the current consoles. I kinda assumed I'd never buy a system again, but after Nintendo announced the Switch that ignited my desire to buy a console for the first time in like 8 years, and I'll definitely get a Switch in the next year after Mario comes out.

Predicting it to outsell the Wii after its first month is dumb. But I could definitely see it selling over 100 million if they get consistent third party support, don't have game droughts, and in a couple years lower the price down to low 200's to a handheld-like price tag that will get the 3DS owners to switch (pun intended!)

thats exactly my point, "casual" is way too broad of a term and encompasses multiple demographics.

I never said Wii would have sold 100 million without Wii Sports/Fit so i have no idea why you brought that up.

terrible analogy that makes no sense, i said a console doesnt have to have a single game as big as Wii Sports in order to have Wii level success. PS1, PS2, GB, DS all sold better than Wii and none of them had an 80+ million seller like Wii Sports.

the rest of your post really has nothing to do with what i said.

Actually if you look historically at every 100+ million selling console, they generally do have a new type of breakout success that drives hardware sales to ridiculous heights. 

Game Boy - Tetris and Pokemon

Playstation - More conceptual, but the idea of marketing a game console to young adults driven by new IP like Resident Evil, Tomb Raider, Gran Turismo, and Final Fantasy VII for the West (most people had not played the FF series before in the West).

Playstation 2 - Grand Theft Auto 3 ... while not a new IP exactly, most people hadn't played a GTA game before and moving the IP into 3D made the violence shock factor more tanigable and caused a sales explosion. 

Wii - Wii Sports and Wii Fit. 

Nintendo DS - Nintendogs, Brain Training. 

PS4 I think may be the first system in gaming history to sell 100 million without anything really new that redefined the industry, but Sony's execution day to day is very strong, Nintendo never has had that kind of discipline. 

100 million doesn't happen just by having a "pretty good" system that has some decent accessibility. You generally need a new software craze to drive such levels of adoption. Usually two actually. 

Okay nice data but what is the correlation of stock price to console sales? You could statistically derive a coefficient with much more metadata but real world situations and economic climate can turn sentiment in no time. Given the sales estimates at the end of the post we see truly what this thought process is; speculation.

The 100M+ sold are very rare. 3 consoles and 2 handhelds have ever crossed that milestone. I don't think that will happen again anytime soon.

Playstation 4 will do it easily. Everything else I agree, it's a tough hurdle, you generally need something huge to break out ... a Pokemon, a Wii Sports, a Grand Theft Auto 3 (with exclusivity).