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zorg1000 said:
Soundwave said:

"The 12 year old girl who plays Just Dance and Style Savvy" - OK well that crowd has diminished significantly. Also why can't we have dilenations, I'm sorry but the 19 year old playing Call of Duty sure as hell is fucking different from the soccer mom that plays Mario Kart once a month for 15 minutes. These are not the same audience. 

You need to have a Wii Sports driver to have Wii type success I'm sorry but accessibility + marketing alone does not do it, every platform has "casual" games by your definition and smartphones are much easier and cheaper to play/use than Switch is (more accessible). 

There's no way the Wii would've sold 100 million without Wii Sports/Fit. 

It's like saying you can be a supermodel without being good looking ... yeah maybe I guess, I would say maybe look into a different profession. 

Switch is finding success appealling to core gamers and that's fine. Doesn't mean it has to sell like the Wii either, the Wii overall IMO was not a success that people make it out to be because Nintendo was not able to iterate on such an unreliable audience base. So they had short term success but long term basically have nothing to show for it as that audience abandoned them when they could get their hands on free games on their phones/tablets. If you're only going to have an audience for 4 years and then they ditch you, that's not a sustainable business model in this industry. 

If Switch sells "only" 70 million but has a more reliable fan base that doesn't bail out like the Wii Sports/Fit crowd did for Switch future iterations, then an arguement can be made in the long run really which approach was more successful. I'd rather have 70 million that I know will be back for my next system than 100 million where 85 million of them bail out because they got tired of mini-games for $50. 

thats exactly my point, "casual" is way too broad of a term and encompasses multiple demographics.

I never said Wii would have sold 100 million without Wii Sports/Fit so i have no idea why you brought that up.

terrible analogy that makes no sense, i said a console doesnt have to have a single game as big as Wii Sports in order to have Wii level success. PS1, PS2, GB, DS all sold better than Wii and none of them had an 80+ million seller like Wii Sports.

the rest of your post really has nothing to do with what i said.

Actually if you look historically at every 100+ million selling console, they generally do have a new type of breakout success that drives hardware sales to ridiculous heights. 

Game Boy - Tetris and Pokemon

Playstation - More conceptual, but the idea of marketing a game console to young adults driven by new IP like Resident Evil, Tomb Raider, Gran Turismo, and Final Fantasy VII for the West (most people had not played the FF series before in the West).

Playstation 2 - Grand Theft Auto 3 ... while not a new IP exactly, most people hadn't played a GTA game before and moving the IP into 3D made the violence shock factor more tanigable and caused a sales explosion. 

Wii - Wii Sports and Wii Fit. 

Nintendo DS - Nintendogs, Brain Training. 

PS4 I think may be the first system in gaming history to sell 100 million without anything really new that redefined the industry, but Sony's execution day to day is very strong, Nintendo never has had that kind of discipline. 

100 million doesn't happen just by having a "pretty good" system that has some decent accessibility. You generally need a new software craze to drive such levels of adoption. Usually two actually.