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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Unconfirmed: Nintendo Raises Switch Forecast To 16 Mill From 8 Mill For Next Fiscal Year

Intrinsic on 17 March 2017
wombat123 said:

If they can hit that number in the Switch's first year, western 3rd parties would have no choice but to support the Switch.  At that point, even the ones that were laughing at Nintendo or said the Switch couldn't handle their games would try to find a way to make it work.

Yeah, like they did with the Wii.......

If the demand is there... I don't think 16M is too big a number t sell. They could sell 10M during the holiday season alone. But I think its really bold of them to make such an adjsutment coming of a successful launch. Very silly too, then again, maybe they know something we don't.



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Soundwave on 17 March 2017

Probably should be noted though, Nintendo has by now a fairly established history of projecting shipment forecasts which they fail to reach.

I think virtually every year of both 3DS and Wii U, they ended up selling less than what they forecast, in many cases their projections are hilarious to look back at now -- ie: Wii U was supposed to sell 10 million in it's first full fiscal year. 3DS was far off some of Nintendo's ambitious targets as well.



Oneeee-Chan!!! on 17 March 2017

http://jp.wsj.com/articles/SB10990999303708163871104583027692259260644

Kaneman! on 17 March 2017

Well, they haven't got stock problems here in Slovenia, I've seen tens of switches on the shelves. Not really surprising given the 340€ price.

10, maybe 12 million could be done. 16 million is just way too much.



Otter on 17 March 2017

Would love for this to be true.  

I know they want to spread things out but I really think they should go for blood this holiday with Mario Odyssey, Pokemon Stars and Smash Bros 5.



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Miyamotoo on 17 March 2017
Soundwave said:

Probably should be noted though, Nintendo has by now a fairly established history of projecting shipment forecasts which they fail to reach.

I think virtually every year of both 3DS and Wii U, they ended up selling less than what they forecast, in many cases their projections are hilarious to look back at now -- ie: Wii U was supposed to sell 10 million in it's first full fiscal year. 3DS was far off some of Nintendo's ambitious targets as well.

Difference is that they decided to double production after Switch launch and after they saw market demand for Switch, while initial plan was to produce 8m Switch in its 1st year. Nintendo itself said they will raise production numbers if demand is strong.

Also production plan and sales forecast are two different things, you better add that ("to produce" not "forecast") in hadline.



Otter on 17 March 2017
Miyamotoo said:
Soundwave said:

I think the release schedule to hit this would have to be something along the lines of

May - ARMS
June - Nada
July - Splatoon 2
August - Super Smash Bros. Deluxe
September - Nada
October - Retro Game?
November - Super Mario Odyessy + price cut to $249.99
December - Pokemon Stars
January - Nada
February - Xenoblade 2
(early) March - Animal Crossing + New Switch Model

With Monster Hunter Switch and Dragon Quest XI also factoring in there somewhere.

Retro game is almost certain 2018. game. March is too early for new Switch model, only one year.

Possibly a Vo.2 as oppose to an actual rebranded model. The same way we got the PS4 with less power consumption and slightly modified internals in summer 2015



Vor on 17 March 2017

ppl seems to forget that Switch is supposed to replace both the 3ds and the wii u so I think its not that unrealistic. 16m is a bit below both the 3ds and the wii u's peak year (13.95 and 3.6 mil. respectively), CMIIW.



A handheld gamer only (for now).

AnmolRed on 17 March 2017

If this is true, they're really confident with mario odyessy, but the more likely reason is Pokemon Stars confirmed.



maxleresistant on 17 March 2017

I remember how it took 3 years for Nintendo to go through those 10 millions of WiiU produced at the beginning.

What could go wrong with 16 millions Switch?