I mean lets operate from a basic assumption that because it's a Nintendo portable it will sell enough eventually to be profitable and sell at least 40-50 million or so and that's enough for Nintendo to make a Switch 2 or whatever it is they want to do. 

Beyond that though it doesn't really matter that much how much further it goes really. PS4 and XB1 already have almost 100 million shipped already and nothing is going to stop them from shipping 160-180 million, factor in Steam/PC on top of that, that's over 200 million users, third parties are obviously going to have no choice but to focus on this base of players before the Switch base. It's just how it's going to be. 

Switch will get 3DS type support which is OK, but that's unlikely to change much regardless of if the system sells 40-50 million or even 70-90 million IMO. It'll be mostly the same types of games. 

So at the end of the day I just don't see much difference here, Switch kinda has its place in the market, but its unlikely to upend the market, it's not like it's going to magically start pulling third party games away from the PS4/XB1 no matter what it does and portable centric Japanese franchises like Monster Hunter and Yokai Watch were going to be on Switch no matter what, so nothing really changes much there. 

Our end user experience with Switch from a gaming perspective is not likely to be altered much by sales IMO unless something incredibly dramatic happens (bad or good). 

It did matter really importantly if we were in the past, but I think Nintendo has diversified lately, and will continue to do so. I think 40-50 Million is fair assessment of them being very healthy.

It only matters if it is your only gaming option. So no, it doesn't matter.

Even in that case though it doesn't matter really. 

Developers are not some how going to go "well you know we're going to make GTAVI Switch exclusive because it's selling like the Wii" ... even if it sold like the Wii, which is unlikely, it still likely will never overtake the PS4/XB1 combined base, so developers have no choice but to focus on those platforms first. 

It'll get Japanese games like Monster Hunter, Shin Megami Tensei, Yokai Watch, Dragon Quest, etc. sure ... but like it would get these games pretty much no matter what. It would have to flop full on to not get these games, 2/4 of these IP are already announced anyway for Switch and I'd say there's no chance in hell it doesn't get a Yokai Wach and Monster Hunter game. 

So no, even if Switch is the only system you have, likely there isn't going to be a whole lot of difference for you if it sells 45 million versus 85 million or something. You're going to basically get the same games. 

As long as it does enough to keep them healthy (like the N64), then it really doesn't matter.

The 3DS will sell around 70 million, less than half of what the DS did. Does anyone care? Nope. It did good enough to keep people satisfied.

On the other hand, the Wii U...oh boy. A bigger mistake than my only football thread. Won't ever live either one down.


Thankfully Switch is basically the Wii U people like (including a name which doesn't suck). Don't see it flopping.

Yes it does matter!

You cannot seriously tell anyone otherwise since even Nintendo themselves benefit from a higher install base. A game can only reach as much audience as it can have access to ...

Then we have the fact that Nintendo rarely ever takes losses on hardware either so having a higher install base leads to higher profit for them ...

No matter how you slice it, you get a much higher revenue stream and a higher profit in Nintendo's case ...

What does it matter to any of us though? It's not as if Nintendo is going to share profits with any of us, so long as they make enough profit to make another system that doesn't really alter much. 

The game library is largely going to be the same regardless of it sells 45 million vs. 95 million. Developers can't abandon the PS4/XB1/PC as their lead platforms and the Japanese franchises that were going to come to Switch, would likely be there at 45 mill or 95 mill, it doesn't make a ton of difference. 

Nintendo's gonna make the same Nintendo games, if anything it seems like they work harder when the userbase is a bit lower for 1st party output. 

It really does make a difference to end user experience! 

If the switch sells worse than the WII U then 3rd party japanese game developers don't have a reason to make Switch games anymore since the Install base is too small. If the Switch sells just as good as the WII then not only are other japanese game developers on board but even 3rd party developers from all over the world would be interested enough to make a specialized versions of the game for the Switch and if not they can at least consider porting last gen games to it ... 

Sales do translate to user experience and it affects how Nintendo will also support it's system as well! (You can see this with Nintendo giving the 3DS a higher priority than the WII U.) 

I said operating under the assumption that it doesn't sell *that* low, no Nintendo portable (truly portable) has sold that low, if Switch goes too low, Nintendo will just drop the price and redesign it in a smaller form factor in a year or so and just go from there. 

Nintendo's support for Wii U vs. 3DS is not that far off, I'd take Splatoon, Mario Kart 8, Mario 3D World, Pikmin 3, DKC: Tropical Freeze, and Bayonetta 2 over their 3DS output this gen, in any case this is a non-issue now that Nintendo has effectively unified both sides. So again it doesn't matter from this POV. 

"Specialized" versions of games don't sell very well. Lets be honest too, what "big" games did the Wii really land that it wouldn't have gotten otherwise had it sold 40-50 million instead of 100 million? Maybe Monster Hunter Tri? There's probably only a handful of really notable games that it got because it sold way above what anyone expected, but it's not like it magically got Resident Evil 5 or GTA3 or something. 

Does it matter on a profit level: not too much. It sells at a profit, so to make money back to Nintendo it doesn't need to sell like a 360 with dozens of software sales.

On a rep level it does matter, but given how console warriors go they won't mention it for 10 reasons, 8 of which have no merit or are just them being selective with their terminology.