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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Does It Really Matter How Much Switch Sells?

I think the only real difference to be honest is if Switch is super successful then Sony/Microsoft maybe even Samsung or Apple will release similar products. Which might be a scenario that isn't so desirable for Nintendo anyway.

Having a solid success but nothing mind blowing might actually be better in the long run actually.

Developers are going to focus on PS4-XB1-PC for the next 3-4 years regardless of what happens so not much changes there.

Nintendo makes a lot of money these days even from just the aging 3DS + dead Wii U + mobile they made a ton of money last quarter, so as long as Switch is not losing them money, they should be fine for the next five years.



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RolStoppable said:
Of course it matters. If it sells really well, it's going to be prioritized by most Japanese game developers while hardly any indie game developer would ignore Switch.

A sales level of ~15m units per year would also guarantee top level Nintendo support for many years. If Switch treads water and can't sell more than 10m units in any year like in your assumption, then Nintendo will shift resources sooner to their next platform.

Japanese and indie developers will support the Switch if it does decent no matter what. The only big Japanese games the 3DS doesn't get is Final Fantasy mainline because the majority of that fan base is on the Playstation and Metal Gear Solid which is probably a dead franchise now anyway. 

So two whole whopping franchises, one of which is now likely dead. The rest of the notable Japanese IP will be on Switch. 

Nintendo support is a given, I don't really sweat it too much. Hell might be better if Switch has a traditional 4-5 year cycle so we can get Switch 2 with better hardware sooner, but the same Nintendo games will come, I'll just be enjoying them on a better chip, which doesn't seem like any kind of downside for a real Nintendo fan since you're going to eventually have to buy the Switch successor anyway. 



RolStoppable said:
Soundwave said:

Japanese and indie developers will support the Switch if it does decent no matter what. The only big Japanese games the 3DS doesn't get is Final Fantasy mainline because the majority of that fan base is on the Playstation and Metal Gear Solid which is probably a dead franchise now anyway. 

So two whole whopping franchises, one of which is now likely dead. The rest of the notable Japanese IP will be on Switch. 

Nintendo support is a given, I don't really sweat it too much. Hell might be better if Switch has a traditional 4-5 year cycle so we can get Switch 2 with better hardware sooner, but the same Nintendo games will come, I'll just be enjoying them on a better chip, which doesn't seem like any kind of downside for a real Nintendo fan since you're going to eventually have to buy the Switch successor anyway. 

Mhm. The words I used in my post, they mean something. They aren't just there to hit a higher word count.

Priority from Japanese developers and virtually no indie game developer who will ignore the platform.

The traditional 4-5 year cycle you talk about is the one of the N64, GC and Wii U. Three systems that had dreadful years 4 and 5.

So lets just cut out the bullshit console cycle excess, which is a shitty year 5 usually and usually half of the first year is shit too because there's the usual 6-7 months worth of drought. 

I'd be perfectly happy with a Switch that is just 4 years of solid releases wall to wall and then on the better hardware. Cut out all that bullshit period. 

As much as people bemoan the Wii U and all that, the fact is they're going to be able to play Zelda BoTW in 900p with the option of playing on the road anywhere they want in a month's time. That doesn't happen if the Wii U doesn't fail, other games like Mario Odyessy would likely be on the Wii U too and likely would be worse off for being so due to lesser hardware. 

At the end of the day this worked out better for consumers. Maybe not the result Nintendo wanted, but we are getting to play these games on better hardware than we would have otherwise and Nintendo still has plenty of money in the bank, so really who cares. 



Soundwave said:
Mr Puggsly said:
Absolutely, how much it sells does impact support and some developers could make it their focus.

It could sell 100 million even, and I don't think developers would make it their focus. 

PS4/XB1 would be nearing 170-180 million between them and then you also factor in PC/Steam players ... the x86 consoles + PC are going to be the default platforms no matter what. 

Nintendo will get Monster Hunter, Yokai Watch, Shin Megami Tensei, and the like ... but they are basically gaurunteed these games unless they fucked up so miserably this gen. 

Again, SOME DEVELOPERS.

Switch could appeal to audiences PS4/X1 don't do as well.



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Mr Puggsly said:
Soundwave said:

It could sell 100 million even, and I don't think developers would make it their focus. 

PS4/XB1 would be nearing 170-180 million between them and then you also factor in PC/Steam players ... the x86 consoles + PC are going to be the default platforms no matter what. 

Nintendo will get Monster Hunter, Yokai Watch, Shin Megami Tensei, and the like ... but they are basically gaurunteed these games unless they fucked up so miserably this gen. 

Again, SOME DEVELOPERS.

Switch could appeal to audiences PS4/X1 don't do as well.

Those developers like LEGO, Just Dance, casual/party game devs, indie devs, Japanese devs will support the Switch if its reasonably successful no matter what. So again, nothing really changes here. 

Even look at the Wii, you tell me which major games it really "took away" or got from other platforms even with record breaking sales. Likely probably not a whole lot ... maybe Monster Hunter and uh .... crickets. Those other nichey types of games like No More Heroes and the like would've been on the Wii anyway had it sold 40-50 million. 



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You're right imo. The only difference we will see is the amount of shovelware and the length of the console's life(seeing that the flop Wii u got replaced in a mere 4.5 years)



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The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

flashfire926 said:
You're right imo. The only difference we will see is the amount of shovelware and the length of the console's life(seeing that the flop Wii u got replaced in a mere 4.5 years)

Shorter hardware cycles aren't even a bad thing. Like I said because Wii U wasn't a success means I get to play Zelda: BotW with better graphics next month and get to take that game on a 9 hour airplane trip I have scheduled. 

This wouldn't be available to me or anyone else if Wii U was successful and had a full 5-6 year cycle ... so again, why as a consumer is this supposed to be "bad"? If you really love Nintendo games you were going to have to buy the successor hardware eventually anyway. You're just getting access to your favorite Nintendo IP with better hardware sooner rather than later, which improves the play experience. Nintendo's always used better hardware to improve their games.

In fact I might suggest that maybe we have been looking at the whole life cycle thing all wrong. 4 year cycles are good, especially if Nintendo is going to cut the crap and just start delivering the big games right from the get go. Since Nintendo doesn't really embrace the highest end hardware, shorter life cycles but with more condensed game releases may be better anyway. Lets be honest, once Nintendo "blows their load" of their main IP on any console (usually by year 3 or 4) they kinda go into "vacation mode", Wii's year 5 and 6 were shit. For a company like Sony 5-6-7 year cycles make sense because they have every developer making games for them, but for Nintendo shorter cycles may well make more sense.

As long as Nintendo is bringing in enough money to keep their small-ish company going at a healthy clip ... and they seem very adept at making good profits (see their last quarter), this is not really something to worry about either. Nintendo is very efficient at making more than enough profit to get by and they keep their company foot print small so it's easy to rack up profit, especially with extra profit now coming in from mobile. They made billions during the GameCube era, they'll be just fine financially with Switch + Mobile + Theme Parks + Movies as long as they don't something stupid like take hardware losses. 



Soundwave said:

I said operating under the assumption that it doesn't sell *that* low, no Nintendo portable (truly portable) has sold that low, if Switch goes too low, Nintendo will just drop the price and redesign it in a smaller form factor in a year or so and just go from there. 

Nintendo's support for Wii U vs. 3DS is not that far off, I'd take Splatoon, Mario Kart 8, Mario 3D World, Pikmin 3, DKC: Tropical Freeze, and Bayonetta 2 over their 3DS output this gen, in any case this is a non-issue now that Nintendo has effectively unified both sides. So again it doesn't matter from this POV. 

"Specialized" versions of games don't sell very well. Lets be honest too, what "big" games did the Wii really land that it wouldn't have gotten otherwise had it sold 40-50 million instead of 100 million? Maybe Monster Hunter Tri? There's probably only a handful of really notable games that it got because it sold way above what anyone expected, but it's not like it magically got Resident Evil 5 or GTA3 or something. 

@Bold Well I can already see that you've debased your own original premise so let's grant you that exception for the sake of continuing this bout ... 

You thought support for the WII U was satisfactory compared to the 3DS but sales speak of a different story from both hardware to software and unification of platforms isn't proof that Nintendo is obligated to put full software support behind it ...

If the WII sold 50 instead of 100 million would it have gotten the Just Dance series, Sonic Colors, Mario & Sonic Olympic games, RE Umbrella Chronicles, Guitar Hero, Epic Mickey, Rayman, and the COD games as well ? But let's go past 3rd party and collaborated games for a moment and see if Nintendo would've willingly put their own smaller franchises at the time on the WII if it sold lower such as Kirby, Animal Crossing or even Metroid ?



RolStoppable said:
fatslob-:O said:

@Bold Well I can already see that you've debased your own original premise so let's grant you that exception for the sake of continuing this bout ... 

You thought support for the WII U was satisfactory compared to the 3DS but sales speak of a different story from both hardware to software and unification of platforms isn't proof that Nintendo is obligated to put full software support behind it ...

If the WII sold 50 instead of 100 million would it have gotten the Just Dance series, Sonic Colors, Mario & Sonic Olympic games, RE Umbrella Chronicles, Guitar Hero, Epic Mickey, Rayman, and the COD games as well ? But let's go past 3rd party and collaborated games for a moment and see if Nintendo would've willingly put their own smaller franchises at the time on the WII if it sold lower such as Kirby, Animal Crossing or even Metroid ?

I think the key point to take away from this thread is that Soundwave wants AAA third party support on a Nintendo console, so a short lifecycle for Switch is preferable as that would speed up the possibility to fulfill the wishful thinking. A failure of Switch (which sales of 40-50m would be) would also strengthen the argument that Nintendo should go after AAA third party support with their next system.

In that sense, a successful Switch is really the worst thing that could happen. For Soundwave, that is.

No basically this thread is saying AAA support is never coming to Nintendo consoles ever anyway, so who cares about what the sales are. 

As long as they're good enough for Nintendo to make a decent profit, what benefit is there really from the POV of a Nintendo fan to "market success". 

The whole song and dance we were sold here was that more sales = better support = better software library. Well that's never going to happen likely ever, as you yourself are so keen to point out. 

In that case, why the fuck should I give a shit really? 

I get to play Zelda in 900p and portably this March instead of it being suck on the Wii U in 720p and confined only to my living room. That's a win for me and most Nintendo fans really. 

The arguement then becomes "well you should feel bad because Nintendo isn't making enough money", well looking at their recent financials, they seem to have no problem making plenty of money anyway, and now with mobile here they'll make a lot. So really I don't see why we as Nintendo fans should care so much about this. It's not as if Nintendo shares any of that money with us anyway. As long as they're making a healthy amount of money, I really could care less if it's the "maximum" amount. 

It doesn't change my enjoyment of the games. 



Soundwave said:
flashfire926 said:
You're right imo. The only difference we will see is the amount of shovelware and the length of the console's life(seeing that the flop Wii u got replaced in a mere 4.5 years)

Shorter hardware cycles aren't even a bad thing. Like I said because Wii U wasn't a success means I get to play Zelda: BotW with better graphics next month and get to take that game on a 9 hour airplane trip I have scheduled. 

This wouldn't be available to me or anyone else if Wii U was successful and had a full 5-6 year cycle ... so again, why as a consumer is this supposed to be "bad"? If you really love Nintendo games you were going to have to buy the successor hardware eventually anyway. You're just getting access to your favorite Nintendo IP with better hardware sooner rather than later, which improves the play experience. Nintendo's always used better hardware to improve their games.

In fact I might suggest that maybe we have been looking at the whole life cycle thing all wrong. 4 year cycles are good, especially if Nintendo is going to cut the crap and just start delivering the big games right from the get go. Since Nintendo doesn't really embrace the highest end hardware, shorter life cycles but with more condensed game releases may be better anyway. Lets be honest, once Nintendo "blows their load" of their main IP on any console (usually by year 3 or 4) they kinda go into "vacation mode", Wii's year 5 and 6 were shit. For a company like Sony 5-6-7 year cycles make sense because they have every developer making games for them, but for Nintendo shorter cycles may well make more sense.

As long as Nintendo is bringing in enough money to keep their small-ish company going at a healthy clip ... and they seem very adept at making good profits (see their last quarter), this is not really something to worry about either. Nintendo is very efficient at making more than enough profit to get by and they keep their company foot print small so it's easy to rack up profit, especially with extra profit now coming in from mobile. They made billions during the GameCube era, they'll be just fine financially with Switch + Mobile + Theme Parks + Movies as long as they don't something stupid like take hardware losses. 

True. It's the same thing with me: I wouldn't be able to get BOTW if it was only Wii u, which I'm happy it wasn't. However Switch only came so early because of Wii u's failure. The consumers who got a Wii u and expected more out of it. However "vacation mode" took place too early in 2016. Zelda is now on the Switch, too, and that version is clearly going to overshadow the Wii u version. Wii u has been dead since 2016 started.

So yeah, the shorter lifecycle for Wii u is great four you and me, but bad for anyone who bought a Wii u.

Dreamcast was a failure (not because it was bad) and lasted two years

Xbox 360 was the breakthrough success for Microsoft, and lasted eight years (look at the difference between GTA 4 and GTA 5) and consisted of many awesome games throughout it's years.



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.