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RolStoppable said:
Of course it matters. If it sells really well, it's going to be prioritized by most Japanese game developers while hardly any indie game developer would ignore Switch.

A sales level of ~15m units per year would also guarantee top level Nintendo support for many years. If Switch treads water and can't sell more than 10m units in any year like in your assumption, then Nintendo will shift resources sooner to their next platform.

Japanese and indie developers will support the Switch if it does decent no matter what. The only big Japanese games the 3DS doesn't get is Final Fantasy mainline because the majority of that fan base is on the Playstation and Metal Gear Solid which is probably a dead franchise now anyway. 

So two whole whopping franchises, one of which is now likely dead. The rest of the notable Japanese IP will be on Switch. 

Nintendo support is a given, I don't really sweat it too much. Hell might be better if Switch has a traditional 4-5 year cycle so we can get Switch 2 with better hardware sooner, but the same Nintendo games will come, I'll just be enjoying them on a better chip, which doesn't seem like any kind of downside for a real Nintendo fan since you're going to eventually have to buy the Switch successor anyway.