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Forums - Sales Discussion - Wii and Ps3 kicking it up or 360 just dying?

stranne on 03 April 2008
superchunk said:

1st 52 weeks,
360 pushed out about 6m

2nd 52 weeks,
360 pushed out about 7.5m (13.5m total)

3rd 52 weeks,
360 will probably get around another 8m (21m total)

4th 52 weeks,
360 will also peak in 3rd year and push out about 6m (27m total)

5th 52 weeks,
360 will also be dead here as nextBox is coming/out. 2m sales (29m total).

So, given this, yes I am probably wrong. 25m should be hit in this calendar year, i.e. 360's 4th 52 week period due to holidays of 2008. But, it will die off quickly after that and definitely not hit 35m.

 

(edited out some parts)

I think you're wrong about the lifespan of X360. IMO games and price cuts will keep it selling good numbers. My numbers would be 6 / 7.5 / 10.5 /12 / 9 / 5 = 50M.

 



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phil on 03 April 2008
superchunk said:
stranne said:
superchunk said:

I'm am betting the 360 won't sell 25m now. It's gonna really come down to GTAIV and other high profile mutliplats. If thier remaining userbase doesn't massively jump 360 from PS2, 360 is sub-25m.

Sub 25M LTD? What?!? It might be close this year, but there is no way it will be under 25M LTD.


1st 52 weeks,
xbox pushed out about 5m
360 pushed out about 6m

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=XB&reg1=All&cons2=XB&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&weeks=52

2nd 52 weeks,
xbox pushed out about 5.5m (10.5m total)
360 pushed out about 7.5m (13.5m total)

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=XB&reg1=All&cons2=XB&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&weeks=104

3rd 52 weeks,
xbox pushed out about 6.5m (17m total)
360 will probably get around another 8m (21m total)

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=XB&reg1=All&cons2=XB&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&weeks=156

4th 52 weeks,
xbox pushed out about 5.5m (22.5m total) ... peaked in 3rd year.
360 will also peak in 3rd year and push out about 6m (27m total)

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=XB&reg1=All&cons2=XB&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&weeks=208

5th 52 weeks,
xbox pushed out about 1.6m (24.1m total) ... dead.
360 will also be dead here as nextBox is coming/out. 2m sales (29m total).

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=XB&reg1=All&cons2=XB&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&weeks=260

 

So, given this, yes I am probably wrong. 25m should be hit in this calendar year, i.e. 360's 4th 52 week period due to holidays of 2008. But, it will die off quickly after that and definitely not hit 35m.


Okay, that seems to make some sense. But your guess of 80mil for the PS3 seems way the hell out of line.  Three times the lifetime sales of the 360?  No way.



makingmusic476 on 03 April 2008
superchunk said:
360 is getting the 3rd place treatment.

Sega bowed out after two 10m or so years of unit sales for its consoles. It was last place both times.

Last gen xbox and gc were really close. This gen Wii is untouchable and PS3 is finally starting to get the hype and games that should have been here last year.

MS will never do well in Japan and Sony has always done fantastic in EU. Now that Nintendo is back to its prime and all three territories can't get enough, there is only room for two real competitors.

Originally, 2006, I had LTD pegged around 60m or so for PS360 each and 90+m for wii. Now it seems that Wii is trending much higher around 130m and PS3 is back in for a good 80m. That leaves very little room for a 3rd competitor.

I'm am betting the 360 won't sell 25m now. It's gonna really come down to GTAIV and other high profile mutliplats. If thier remaining userbase doesn't massively jump 360 from PS2, 360 is sub-25m.

I agree with this, except I think the 360 will die out at around 35-40 mil.  All consoles will sell much better than those from last gen.



rukusa on 03 April 2008
daactualfact said:
In all honesty, it seems like the 360's final saviour for 2k8 is Gta4. (While the Wii has Wiifit which will be MASSIVE, Brawl which still has a EU launch coming, MkWii speaks for itself, Wiiware has a new experience, and more. Ps3 getting the monster Gt5 if Sony allows it to come this year, Mgs4 which will be a Galaxy type experience.)

360 has Ninja Gaiden 2, Gears2 which may be Halo hyped at release, and Too Human. (Gears 2 seems to be the only one with a huge impact though.)

I really wouldn't count gta4 for any of them since they share it.

Well in Europe yes. I believe Microsoft expects GTA4 to give them a high boost in Europe. Dont know if it will work though.



Nintendo & Sony supporter:

 Consoles: Wii & PS3.

EaglesEye379 on 03 April 2008

The upturn (though not as great as most people here seem to think) in the PS3 sales is due to Blu-ray and the PS3 finally getting the exclusive franchises in the horizon that people expect - GT5P and MGS4 and that is not coming out on the PS2. The next interesting battle is GTA4. Yes, there might be more PS2 faithful moving to PS3, but I think any percentage above 30% moving to 360 is still a battle won by the 360.

There are so many good exclusive games (yes and they are non-shooter as well) announced this year(when everyone thought, oh look at 2007, 2008 seems bare), MS already saying it has plans to keep 360 longer than the 4-year XB, I cant comprehend why people think 360 is on the way out. I think MS will double its development cycle for consoles given the current Vista disaster, so I predict XB720 to come in 2012 at the earliest.

In regards to current sales, as been posted, its better YOY and if you read current trends and even the mods comments on this site its currently a tie now, with a slight edge to PS3. Frankly, if the PS3 does not match 360 by now in its 2nd year, I would be pretty worried about the console.



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stranne on 03 April 2008

makingmusic476 said:

I agree with this, except I think the 360 will die out at around 35-40 mil. All consoles will sell much better than those from last gen.


Will PS3 really sell much better than PS2?



daactualfact on 03 April 2008

ps3 won't sell better than the ps2.



Damn things have changed since 2009 began. Here are my new visions for the end of the generation.

 

Wii: 135 mil

Ps3: 85 mil

360: 60 mil

True Genius
hunter_alien on 03 April 2008
stranne said:
superchunk said:

1st 52 weeks,
360 pushed out about 6m

2nd 52 weeks,
360 pushed out about 7.5m (13.5m total)

3rd 52 weeks,
360 will probably get around another 8m (21m total)

4th 52 weeks,
360 will also peak in 3rd year and push out about 6m (27m total)

5th 52 weeks,
360 will also be dead here as nextBox is coming/out. 2m sales (29m total).

So, given this, yes I am probably wrong. 25m should be hit in this calendar year, i.e. 360's 4th 52 week period due to holidays of 2008. But, it will die off quickly after that and definitely not hit 35m.

(edited out some parts)

I think you're wrong about the lifespan of X360. IMO games and price cuts will keep it selling good numbers. My numbers would be 6 / 7.5 / 10.5 /12 / 9 / 5 = 50M.

 


 lol ... keep kidding yourself . The 360 will strugle to reach 10 milion in others , it will probably never reach the 1 million in Japan , and it would need PS2 numbers in the US to reach 50 million ... 39 million in the US alone , when its at 11 afther more than 2 years ... what are the chances ?



Vote the Mayor for Mayor!

stranne on 03 April 2008
hunter_alien said:
stranne said:
superchunk said:

1st 52 weeks,
360 pushed out about 6m

2nd 52 weeks,
360 pushed out about 7.5m (13.5m total)

3rd 52 weeks,
360 will probably get around another 8m (21m total)

4th 52 weeks,
360 will also peak in 3rd year and push out about 6m (27m total)

5th 52 weeks,
360 will also be dead here as nextBox is coming/out. 2m sales (29m total).

So, given this, yes I am probably wrong. 25m should be hit in this calendar year, i.e. 360's 4th 52 week period due to holidays of 2008. But, it will die off quickly after that and definitely not hit 35m.

(edited out some parts)

I think you're wrong about the lifespan of X360. IMO games and price cuts will keep it selling good numbers. My numbers would be 6 / 7.5 / 10.5 /12 / 9 / 5 = 50M.

 


lol ... keep kidding yourself . The 360 will strugle to reach 10 milion in others , it will probably never reach the 1 million in Japan , and it would need PS2 numbers in the US to reach 50 million ... 39 million in the US alone , when its at 11 afther more than 2 years ... what are the chances ?


 Others will be higher than that. And I think 360 will have a life of 6 years and that gives it a pretty good chance to reach 50M.



Lord N on 03 April 2008

There's no way in hell that the 360 will reach 50 million.

Even 40 million would be a miracle.

 

Consoles owned: Saturn, Dreamcast, PS1, PS2, PSP, DS, PS3