Wii and Ps3 kicking it up or 360 just dying?

[phil]

superchunk said:

stranne said:

superchunk said:

I'm am betting the 360 won't sell 25m now. It's gonna really come down to GTAIV and other high profile mutliplats. If thier remaining userbase doesn't massively jump 360 from PS2, 360 is sub-25m.

Sub 25M LTD? What?!? It might be close this year, but there is no way it will be under 25M LTD.

1st 52 weeks,
xbox pushed out about 5m
360 pushed out about 6m

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=XB&reg1=All&cons2=XB&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&weeks=52

2nd 52 weeks,
xbox pushed out about 5.5m (10.5m total)
360 pushed out about 7.5m (13.5m total)

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=XB&reg1=All&cons2=XB&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&weeks=104

3rd 52 weeks,
xbox pushed out about 6.5m (17m total)
360 will probably get around another 8m (21m total)

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=XB&reg1=All&cons2=XB&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&weeks=156

4th 52 weeks,
xbox pushed out about 5.5m (22.5m total) ... peaked in 3rd year.
360 will also peak in 3rd year and push out about 6m (27m total)

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=XB&reg1=All&cons2=XB&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&weeks=208

5th 52 weeks,
xbox pushed out about 1.6m (24.1m total) ... dead.
360 will also be dead here as nextBox is coming/out. 2m sales (29m total).

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=XB&reg1=All&cons2=XB&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&weeks=260

 

So, given this, yes I am probably wrong. 25m should be hit in this calendar year, i.e. 360's 4th 52 week period due to holidays of 2008. But, it will die off quickly after that and definitely not hit 35m.

Okay, that seems to make some sense. But your guess of 80mil for the PS3 seems way the hell out of line.  Three times the lifetime sales of the 360?  No way.