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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: Switch will sell less than 15 million if home console, less than 35 million if 3DS replacement/hybrid.

 

What do you think about this prediction?

Please dude, you're just... 58 60.42%
 
Pretty spot on in my opinion. 30 31.25%
 
Its going to sell less th... 8 8.33%
 
Total:96
Insidb on 14 January 2017

Seems fair: handheld sales are down 33% this generation, and mobile gaming sales are now ~50% of the market. If that happens again, even a standalone DS system, at the sweet spot of $200, would be expected to sell ~40M units.



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L_ on 14 January 2017
malistix1985 said:
I read and saw all the news and I am still not sure what they really want, selling it as a home console but everything I see it looks like a portable, then I saw a video of just dance and it looked more like a wii 2 I dont know if there is motion control holy crap its confusing.

I actually wish they just made 2 consoles like the PSVita and the PSTV with the switch to make it easy and cheaper and give people either the portable or the home console version.

Also there is a mess of questions I still have, do updates download to the cardridge? Will there be a handheld only version later? Will the load times be decent on the cardridges or instant? what is the Mb/s of the cardridges? can they even keep up with a HDD, which is traditionally much faster in gaming cases then a micro SD slot

and so many more questions, its a mess, I think it will sell more then 15 milion because its less then a mess then the WiiU but it is also priced SIGNIFICANTLY worse and released in the prime of the ps4 and it will prob. be close to the price of the scorpio for power users.

I don't think this will be the nintendo comeback I and many others hoped for, so, I think you are wrong but I don't think you are far from what will happen, I project 40-50m myself and a huge success in Japan getting them to these numbers

Yes because that ended up working great for Sony...



malistix1985 on 14 January 2017
L_ said:
malistix1985 said:
I read and saw all the news and I am still not sure what they really want, selling it as a home console but everything I see it looks like a portable, then I saw a video of just dance and it looked more like a wii 2 I dont know if there is motion control holy crap its confusing.

I actually wish they just made 2 consoles like the PSVita and the PSTV with the switch to make it easy and cheaper and give people either the portable or the home console version.

Also there is a mess of questions I still have, do updates download to the cardridge? Will there be a handheld only version later? Will the load times be decent on the cardridges or instant? what is the Mb/s of the cardridges? can they even keep up with a HDD, which is traditionally much faster in gaming cases then a micro SD slot

and so many more questions, its a mess, I think it will sell more then 15 milion because its less then a mess then the WiiU but it is also priced SIGNIFICANTLY worse and released in the prime of the ps4 and it will prob. be close to the price of the scorpio for power users.

I don't think this will be the nintendo comeback I and many others hoped for, so, I think you are wrong but I don't think you are far from what will happen, I project 40-50m myself and a huge success in Japan getting them to these numbers

Yes because that ended up working great for Sony...

sony didnt support their device, nintendo clearly will




Twitter @CyberMalistix

Mummelmann on 14 January 2017
Insidb said:
Seems fair: handheld sales are down 33% this generation, and mobile gaming sales are now ~50% of the market. If that happens again, even a standalone DS system, at the sweet spot of $200, would be expected to sell ~40M units.

Handheld sales are down 33%? I think 65% is more likely, it's a massive drop. Combined user base of PSP and DS is about 240 million while the Vita and 3DS are set to sell perhaps 85 million or so, that's a huge difference.



the_dark_lewd on 14 January 2017
Bandorr said:
The launch lineup is subjective. 

Lol, of all the words for it....



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Kagerow on 14 January 2017

Actually, it depends on perspective.

If, Nintendo is planning Swtich based on prediction made based on Vita's performance, they are doing perfectly spot-on marketing. They need to convince many people as possible (Even if it would damage console's early cycle) that NSwitch is console until certain, and very specific point.

As such, Nintendo is doing what I think they are doing, they are doing marvelous and perfect job. That said, do not misunderstand me for supporting what Nintendo might do (If they are really planning what I think they are doing.) Since it honestly doesn't benefit consumer at all...



Insidb on 14 January 2017
Mummelmann said:
Insidb said:
Seems fair: handheld sales are down 33% this generation, and mobile gaming sales are now ~50% of the market. If that happens again, even a standalone DS system, at the sweet spot of $200, would be expected to sell ~40M units.

Handheld sales are down 33%? I think 65% is more likely, it's a massive drop. Combined user base of PSP and DS is about 240 million while the Vita and 3DS are set to sell perhaps 85 million or so, that's a huge difference.

I checked my math and I also compared 3DS/PSV (75M) to DS/PSP (235M).

It's definitely closer to 67%, and I definitely pulled the 33% from a different thread: citing how much cheaper the 3DS is than the NS. 

Putting the price differential aside (a significant issue), we're looking at 25M units at the same price point AKA yikes.

PS: thanks for the note.



Mummelmann on 14 January 2017
Insidb said:
Mummelmann said:

Handheld sales are down 33%? I think 65% is more likely, it's a massive drop. Combined user base of PSP and DS is about 240 million while the Vita and 3DS are set to sell perhaps 85 million or so, that's a huge difference.

I checked my math and I also compared 3DS/PSV (75M) to DS/PSP (235M).

It's definitely closer to 67%, and I definitely pulled the 33% from a different thread: citing how much cheaper the 3DS is than the NS. 

Putting the price differential aside (a significant issue), we're looking at 25M units at the same price point AKA yikes.

PS: thanks for the note.

Ah, no problem. It happens to me as well, I always have 8-10 tabs open with different threads and things can get mixed up...



Mnementh on 14 January 2017
RolStoppable said:
barney, what did I tell you about making Nintendo threads?

I don't believe it is actually Barney. It is Count Olaf acting as Barney!

 

 



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Insidb on 14 January 2017
Mummelmann said:
Insidb said:

I checked my math and I also compared 3DS/PSV (75M) to DS/PSP (235M).

It's definitely closer to 67%, and I definitely pulled the 33% from a different thread: citing how much cheaper the 3DS is than the NS. 

Putting the price differential aside (a significant issue), we're looking at 25M units at the same price point AKA yikes.

PS: thanks for the note.

Ah, no problem. It happens to me as well, I always have 8-10 tabs open with different threads and things can get mixed up...

I restarted my computer the other day (updates...) and lost all my tabs, on Safari and Chrome.

I.

Lost.

All.

My.

Tabs.