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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: Switch will sell less than 15 million if home console, less than 35 million if 3DS replacement/hybrid.

 

What do you think about this prediction?

Please dude, you're just... 57 60.00%
 
Pretty spot on in my opinion. 30 31.58%
 
Its going to sell less th... 8 8.42%
 
Total:95

dont think it will pass 20 mill. but sell a bit better then wii U. seems like an upgraded wii U with more functionality. so it will have the same fate. this will be my first time not buying a ninty console at launch. i might get it on its final year tho. 3-5 years from now to catch up on must play aaa ninty games like mario ody.



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I think y'all are under estimating the selling power of just Zelda, Splatoon 2 and Odyssey. On top of that, which is just first year, we are getting Pokémon as well, as already confirmed by Gamefreak. Now, Pokémon, Splatoon, 3D Mario that has the selling potential of Galaxy and Pokémon. That right there already screams over 20m. Not to mention the inevitable smash bros, hopefully it gets Monster Hunter... plus, Nintendo still can pump out Animal Crossing as well as a bunch of other IPs that will help the console.

I really don't think you should be judging lifetime sales based off of the launch lineup. Whereas yes it's pretty weak, the first year is pretty strong.



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I would think by now the Battery life gives it away. Switch is a console that can be played on the go. If it was meant to be a handheld, Nintendo would have prioritize he handheld first, but with low Battery life, obviously not the case. Switch is redesigned Wii U at the end of it all.



I read and saw all the news and I am still not sure what they really want, selling it as a home console but everything I see it looks like a portable, then I saw a video of just dance and it looked more like a wii 2 I dont know if there is motion control holy crap its confusing.

I actually wish they just made 2 consoles like the PSVita and the PSTV with the switch to make it easy and cheaper and give people either the portable or the home console version.

Also there is a mess of questions I still have, do updates download to the cardridge? Will there be a handheld only version later? Will the load times be decent on the cardridges or instant? what is the Mb/s of the cardridges? can they even keep up with a HDD, which is traditionally much faster in gaming cases then a micro SD slot

and so many more questions, its a mess, I think it will sell more then 15 milion because its less then a mess then the WiiU but it is also priced SIGNIFICANTLY worse and released in the prime of the ps4 and it will prob. be close to the price of the scorpio for power users.

I don't think this will be the nintendo comeback I and many others hoped for, so, I think you are wrong but I don't think you are far from what will happen, I project 40-50m myself and a huge success in Japan getting them to these numbers




Twitter @CyberMalistix

Seems fair: handheld sales are down 33% this generation, and mobile gaming sales are now ~50% of the market. If that happens again, even a standalone DS system, at the sweet spot of $200, would be expected to sell ~40M units.



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malistix1985 said:
I read and saw all the news and I am still not sure what they really want, selling it as a home console but everything I see it looks like a portable, then I saw a video of just dance and it looked more like a wii 2 I dont know if there is motion control holy crap its confusing.

I actually wish they just made 2 consoles like the PSVita and the PSTV with the switch to make it easy and cheaper and give people either the portable or the home console version.


Also there is a mess of questions I still have, do updates download to the cardridge? Will there be a handheld only version later? Will the load times be decent on the cardridges or instant? what is the Mb/s of the cardridges? can they even keep up with a HDD, which is traditionally much faster in gaming cases then a micro SD slot

and so many more questions, its a mess, I think it will sell more then 15 milion because its less then a mess then the WiiU but it is also priced SIGNIFICANTLY worse and released in the prime of the ps4 and it will prob. be close to the price of the scorpio for power users.

I don't think this will be the nintendo comeback I and many others hoped for, so, I think you are wrong but I don't think you are far from what will happen, I project 40-50m myself and a huge success in Japan getting them to these numbers

Yes because that ended up working great for Sony...



L_ said:
malistix1985 said:
I read and saw all the news and I am still not sure what they really want, selling it as a home console but everything I see it looks like a portable, then I saw a video of just dance and it looked more like a wii 2 I dont know if there is motion control holy crap its confusing.

I actually wish they just made 2 consoles like the PSVita and the PSTV with the switch to make it easy and cheaper and give people either the portable or the home console version.


Also there is a mess of questions I still have, do updates download to the cardridge? Will there be a handheld only version later? Will the load times be decent on the cardridges or instant? what is the Mb/s of the cardridges? can they even keep up with a HDD, which is traditionally much faster in gaming cases then a micro SD slot

and so many more questions, its a mess, I think it will sell more then 15 milion because its less then a mess then the WiiU but it is also priced SIGNIFICANTLY worse and released in the prime of the ps4 and it will prob. be close to the price of the scorpio for power users.

I don't think this will be the nintendo comeback I and many others hoped for, so, I think you are wrong but I don't think you are far from what will happen, I project 40-50m myself and a huge success in Japan getting them to these numbers

Yes because that ended up working great for Sony...

sony didnt support their device, nintendo clearly will




Twitter @CyberMalistix

Insidb said:
Seems fair: handheld sales are down 33% this generation, and mobile gaming sales are now ~50% of the market. If that happens again, even a standalone DS system, at the sweet spot of $200, would be expected to sell ~40M units.

Handheld sales are down 33%? I think 65% is more likely, it's a massive drop. Combined user base of PSP and DS is about 240 million while the Vita and 3DS are set to sell perhaps 85 million or so, that's a huge difference.



Bandorr said:
The launch lineup is subjective. 

Lol, of all the words for it....



Actually, it depends on perspective.

If, Nintendo is planning Swtich based on prediction made based on Vita's performance, they are doing perfectly spot-on marketing. They need to convince many people as possible (Even if it would damage console's early cycle) that NSwitch is console until certain, and very specific point.

As such, Nintendo is doing what I think they are doing, they are doing marvelous and perfect job. That said, do not misunderstand me for supporting what Nintendo might do (If they are really planning what I think they are doing.) Since it honestly doesn't benefit consumer at all...