Prediction: Switch will sell less than 15 million if home console, less than 35 million if 3DS replacement/hybrid.

[Insidb]

Mummelmann said:

Insidb said:
Seems fair: handheld sales are down 33% this generation, and mobile gaming sales are now ~50% of the market. If that happens again, even a standalone DS system, at the sweet spot of $200, would be expected to sell ~40M units.

Handheld sales are down 33%? I think 65% is more likely, it's a massive drop. Combined user base of PSP and DS is about 240 million while the Vita and 3DS are set to sell perhaps 85 million or so, that's a huge difference.

I checked my math and I also compared 3DS/PSV (75M) to DS/PSP (235M).

It's definitely closer to 67%, and I definitely pulled the 33% from a different thread: citing how much cheaper the 3DS is than the NS. 

Putting the price differential aside (a significant issue), we're looking at 25M units at the same price point AKA yikes.

PS: thanks for the note.