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Insidb said:
Seems fair: handheld sales are down 33% this generation, and mobile gaming sales are now ~50% of the market. If that happens again, even a standalone DS system, at the sweet spot of $200, would be expected to sell ~40M units.

Handheld sales are down 33%? I think 65% is more likely, it's a massive drop. Combined user base of PSP and DS is about 240 million while the Vita and 3DS are set to sell perhaps 85 million or so, that's a huge difference.