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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - I flew too close to the 1TF sun and my Switch wings melted.

maxleresistant said:
Soundwave said:

The problem with that is a portable has to be a central component and as such, it's not so easy to scale games as people think. 

Windows plays well with other Windows platforms, but most laptops will die in like an hour or two if you try playing a hardcore 3D game on them (provided they can even run them in the first place). 

Having the same game play on a 5 watt device and a 50 watt device and actually utilizing both platforms well is a tough task. 

The iPad, iPhone, iPod Touch have a shared ecosystem sure, and they're different devices, but it's also true that it's not like you can play Uncharted 4 on the iPad while the iPhone is running that game at half res. No, those devices are all fairly close in power. 

And I think Nintendo probably will have different versions of Switch like that, but if you're saying "well why can't I have a Switch console that's 2.5 TFLOP, and the people who want the portable can just have the portable".

No. 

It doesn't work like that, games can only scale so far, as matter of fact I think this is why the docked version of the Switch is even underclocked. There isn't really any big reason why the docked Switch shouldn't run at full clock (1 GHz = 500 GFLOPS), but I think they had to down clock it to 768 MHz (384 GFLOPS approx) because the gap would be too hard to have the same game for the docked and undocked mode if the gap in performance was any larger than the 2.5:1 ratio Nintendo apparently settled on. 

Of course it's work, but it's a lot less work than porting a WiiU game on 3DS.  You don't have to start from scratch to rebuild the game.

I will always think that the extra costs is nothing in comparison to having two devices instead of one. They could have easily used the full capacity of the tegra, even push it to ore than 1 Tflops and 8 GB of ram, so that they could have the same architecture but something on par with the Xbox One.

They could have sold more devices, the Switch handheld would have been a handheld instead of a hybrid, making it a real successor to the 3DS and having only the mobile market as a competitor.

And the switch home would have been a cost effective solution to compete in the home console market, it would have live off the back f the handheld, and could have easily received ports of third parties AAA

That's a way better solution if Nintendo's strategy is to actually increase their market shares.

 

Mark my words, the Switch will sell less than the 3DS, and it will not be the only device Nintendo releases during the next 2-3 years

There will be Switch revisions and maybe TV only model like the PS TV sure. 

If you think there will be an entirely different Nintendo platform on top of the Switch in 2-3 years ... I gotta say I think hell no is that happening. 

Nintendo wouldn't be able to able to support said platforms, and what would that system even be? An 8 TFLOP hardcore console? C'mon. That'll happen right after Nintendo takes 10 years making a Zelda game that actually utilizes its power. 

Switch is it for Nintendo. If it goes, then IMO so goes Nintendo hardware for the most part. You might get like a cheap Game Boy type platform, but largely I think they would move on to other platforms, or maybe even just make a Nintendo controller for smartphones/tablets and let that be that. 



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Soundwave said:
maxleresistant said:

Of course it's work, but it's a lot less work than porting a WiiU game on 3DS.  You don't have to start from scratch to rebuild the game.

I will always think that the extra costs is nothing in comparison to having two devices instead of one. They could have easily used the full capacity of the tegra, even push it to ore than 1 Tflops and 8 GB of ram, so that they could have the same architecture but something on par with the Xbox One.

They could have sold more devices, the Switch handheld would have been a handheld instead of a hybrid, making it a real successor to the 3DS and having only the mobile market as a competitor.

And the switch home would have been a cost effective solution to compete in the home console market, it would have live off the back f the handheld, and could have easily received ports of third parties AAA

That's a way better solution if Nintendo's strategy is to actually increase their market shares.

 

Mark my words, the Switch will sell less than the 3DS, and it will not be the only device Nintendo releases during the next 2-3 years

There will be Switch revisions and maybe TV only model like the PS TV sure. 

If you think there will be an entirely different Nintendo platform on top of the Switch in 2-3 years ... I gotta say I think hell no is that happening. 

Nintendo wouldn't be able to able to support said platforms, and what would that system even be? An 8 TFLOP hardcore console? C'mon. That'll happen right after Nintendo takes 10 years making a Zelda game that actually utilizes its power. 

Switch is it for Nintendo. If it goes, then IMO so goes Nintendo hardware for the most part. You might get like a cheap Game Boy type platform, but largely I think they would move on to other platforms, or maybe even just make a Nintendo controller for smartphones/tablets and let that be that. 

Never said anything about an entirely different platform, that wouldn't make any sense. You keep saying stuff I didn't say, stay on point dude.

 



maxleresistant said:
Soundwave said:

There will be Switch revisions and maybe TV only model like the PS TV sure. 

If you think there will be an entirely different Nintendo platform on top of the Switch in 2-3 years ... I gotta say I think hell no is that happening. 

Nintendo wouldn't be able to able to support said platforms, and what would that system even be? An 8 TFLOP hardcore console? C'mon. That'll happen right after Nintendo takes 10 years making a Zelda game that actually utilizes its power. 

Switch is it for Nintendo. If it goes, then IMO so goes Nintendo hardware for the most part. You might get like a cheap Game Boy type platform, but largely I think they would move on to other platforms, or maybe even just make a Nintendo controller for smartphones/tablets and let that be that. 

Never said anything about an entirely different platform, that wouldn't make any sense. You keep saying stuff I didn't say, stay on point dude.

 

I don't really think we're disagreeing then if what you're saying is Nintendo is going to make other iterations of the Switch. 

Do I think you're getting a 2.5 TFLOP Switch though? Nope. 

The problem with that reasoning is the game is going to have to run on that undocked spec (160 GFLOPS @300 MHz). I don't think Nintendo will allow Switch games that don't work on the main Switch unit. That's the problem is you're hamstrung by that lower spec. 

I mean like how is this going to work? Imagine a Switch owner buys The Witcher IV or whatever on Switch which runs at super-duper 1080p whatever on the new Switch Pro. 

But if that person doesn't have Switch Pro, and just a regular Switch, does that mean the screen just goes black when they undock their Switch? I dunno if Nintendo will allow that. It breaks the entire "Switch" concept if you're going to have games that only run on the higher specced versions of the Switch and don't allow you to "Switch" if you have the original Switch model. 



Soundwave said:
maxleresistant said:

Never said anything about an entirely different platform, that wouldn't make any sense. You keep saying stuff I didn't say, stay on point dude.

 

I don't really think we're disagreeing then if what you're saying is Nintendo is going to make other iterations of the Switch. 

Do I think you're getting a 2.5 TFLOP Switch though? Nope. 

The problem with that reasoning is the game is going to have to run on that undocked spec (160 GFLOPS @300 MHz). I don't think Nintendo will allow Switch games that don't work on the main Switch unit. That's the problem is you're hamstrung by that lower spec. 

I mean like how is this going to work? Imagine a Switch owner buys The Witcher IV or whatever on Switch which runs at super-duper 1080p whatever on the new Switch Pro. 

But if that person doesn't have Switch Pro, and just a regular Switch, does that mean the screen just goes black when they undock their Switch? I dunno if Nintendo will allow that. It breaks the entire "Switch" concept if you're going to have games that only run on the higher specced versions of the Switch and don't allow you to "Switch" if you have the original Switch model. 

again, never talked about 2.5Tflops, you said that.

I said that they could make different devices that appeals to different demographic but that would stay under the same OS and use the same library of games.

I don't believe Nintendo will ever make something that will be more powerful than a Xbox or a Playstation, but I do believe they could make something a little less powerful but stilll powerful enough to get third party support. If they start with the switch, that paves the way for a slew of different devices, again, if the OS, architecture and game library is the same, it will not cost them a lot of money to release those devices.

But that's more of what I want, what I strongly believe is that their next device will target the casual market more aggressively. The switch, even if it's underpowered in comparison with other dedicated gaming device, is still very much made for gamers, and I don't see anything in the switch appealing to the casual market.

Now Nintendo is already trying to make money off the casual market by making mobile games and apps, but I don't think that this is their whole strategy.

 

In short, I don't think the whole gaming strategy of nintendo is "a portable you plug into a TV, and making mobile games", that just can't be it. It would be very stupid if it was only that.

But by the end of the year, when will see that the Switch doesn't sell as well as hoped, maybe people will start believing what I say.



maxleresistant said:
Soundwave said:

I don't really think we're disagreeing then if what you're saying is Nintendo is going to make other iterations of the Switch. 

Do I think you're getting a 2.5 TFLOP Switch though? Nope. 

The problem with that reasoning is the game is going to have to run on that undocked spec (160 GFLOPS @300 MHz). I don't think Nintendo will allow Switch games that don't work on the main Switch unit. That's the problem is you're hamstrung by that lower spec. 

I mean like how is this going to work? Imagine a Switch owner buys The Witcher IV or whatever on Switch which runs at super-duper 1080p whatever on the new Switch Pro. 

But if that person doesn't have Switch Pro, and just a regular Switch, does that mean the screen just goes black when they undock their Switch? I dunno if Nintendo will allow that. It breaks the entire "Switch" concept if you're going to have games that only run on the higher specced versions of the Switch and don't allow you to "Switch" if you have the original Switch model. 

again, never talked about 2.5Tflops, you said that.

I said that they could make different devices that appeals to different demographic but that would stay under the same OS and use the same library of games.

I don't believe Nintendo will ever make something that will be more powerful than a Xbox or a Playstation, but I do believe they could make something a little less powerful but stilll powerful enough to get third party support. If they start with the switch, that paves the way for a slew of different devices, again, if the OS, architecture and game library is the same, it will not cost them a lot of money to release those devices.

But that's more of what I want, what I strongly believe is that their next device will target the casual market more aggressively. The switch, even if it's underpowered in comparison with other dedicated gaming device, is still very much made for gamers, and I don't see anything in the switch appealing to the casual market.

Now Nintendo is already trying to make money off the casual market by making mobile games and apps, but I don't think that this is their whole strategy.

 

In short, I don't think the whole gaming strategy of nintendo is "a portable you plug into a TV, and making mobile games", that just can't be it. It would be very stupid if it was only that.

But by the end of the year, when will see that the Switch doesn't sell as well as hoped, maybe people will start believing what I say.

I'm not arguing with your main supposition there. 

I'm just saying what you want may very well not be technically possible. 

Even "just a little below the XBox One" ... that still I think presents huge problems, just "below" an XBox One is lets say 1 TFLOP. 

The Switch undocked because of it has to run in a 5-6 watt envelope is only 160 GFLOPS ... that's just too far of a gap, what you would effectively have to do is force developers to make basically two different versions of the same game. 

That is not a unified platform. The iPad and iPhone are a unified platform, but an iPad is not a Macbook Pro that is like 10x+ more powerful than the iPhone.

A 3:1 to 4:1 gap? OK maybe that's doable even at 4:1, I think you are getting to a point that's pushing it. But what you're talking about is more like a 8-9:1 gap and that's seriously getting kinda improbable. 



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zorg1000 said:
potato_hamster said:


See, you just take an interpretation of what I say, make a nice little straw man out of it, and then try your best to light it on fire. Adorable.

I was making a point that the sales of the Xbox and Playstation home consoles is substantantially higher than the likes of Sega, Atari, etc. Aka, the sales of their competition has increased while Nintendo's sales have decreased over the years, aka, Nintendo has much more susbtantial competition now than they ever have, and the sales show it The home console market has grown in the last couple decades overall, yet Nintendo's piece of that pie just keeps getting smaller and smaller. As you've stated many many many times, this has been somewhat buoyed by Nintendo's handheld performance, but even that train appears to be running out of track.

Hilariously though, if you want to look at a stable platform over the past 20+ years, that title easily goes to Sony's home consoles. With few exceptions, they have consistently sold at least 18 million. In fact, between FY97 and FY07, the only year they sold less than 18 million home consoles was FY05 at 16.2M. Sure FY08 to FY11 they only averaged between 12 and 16 million, but since FY12 they've been back to 18+ million. If you're not keeping track, that means that in 20 years, Sony's home consoles have sold at least 18 million 75% of the time. That's actual consistency. now before you try and make a mountain out of that 4 year period of less than stellar sales, let me remind you for a little perspective - Nintendo would be delighted if the Switch sold a 12 million average over the next 4 years.  That alone should tell you all you need to know about the decline of Nintendo over the years.

Thats not a straw man, you said Nintendo being down 20-25% is a massive decline, that means that the Xbox & Playstation ecosystems are very likely to be suffering massive declines as well. Either the Nintendo decline isnt as significant as you are making it out to be or the entire dedicated gaming market is in massive decline. Its one or the other, it cant be both.

Yep Playstation home consoles have been pretty stable with the exception of PS3, not gonna deny that.

3DS averaged over 12 million per year in its first 4 years on the market, its not some unfathomable idea that Switch could do the same.

Of course it can be both, The PS4 is currently selling very close to the rate the PS2 (the most successful video game console ever). Now, no one expects the PS4 to do PS2 levels mainly because of how cheap Sony managed to sell the PS2 for and how long they sold it for, however, all signs indicate that whatever momentum Sony lost with the PS3 it's surely regained. Yes, it's given up on the handheld market, as that userbase has appeared to have moved on to phones and tablets for the most part. As for Microsoft? I don't personally think they ever had long term plans in the console space. I believe they always treated their Xbox division as a means of getting people invested in the ecosystem they've created, and then leverage that to supply their PC investments. It appears we're now seeing that come to fruition, as I now believe they're pivoting away from the Xbox being a home video game console, and will be treating the Xbox label as a brand of "gaming ready" PCs in the future that will allow developers to see some of the gains of optimizing for a console while supporting a few different specifications to ensure engines don't have to be as bloated as they would be for PC (Similar to what I believe Nintendo is doing with the Switch's operating modes). MS is releasing few, if any Xbox One exclusives now that they've seen many of their Xbox 360 fanbase either go back to Playstation or simply moving on to the PC where they can play the vast majority of the games they used to enjoy on their Xbox 360.

But Nintendo? In all seriousness, if your assumptions are right and the Switch will cover both the handheld and home markets, and truly is a hybrid device, and you're optimistic for 12 million a year in sales, then that is a massive gap from the 20-23 million combined they were selling annually in the 90's. It appears that a large portion of Nintendo's fans that were playing their consoles 15-20 years ago are no longer doing so. It appears that they've lost people to Playstation and Xbox, and even more people to mobile phones and tablets when looking at where GBA, NDS and even PSP owners are now playing. In my opinion, both Sony and Nintendo have both seen the end for dedicated handheld consoles, the main difference here is that Nintendo's handheld userbase is still significant enough to make it worth the effort to try and entice those users to remain on the Nintendo platform by offering them a compromise.



potato_hamster said:
zorg1000 said:

Thats not a straw man, you said Nintendo being down 20-25% is a massive decline, that means that the Xbox & Playstation ecosystems are very likely to be suffering massive declines as well. Either the Nintendo decline isnt as significant as you are making it out to be or the entire dedicated gaming market is in massive decline. Its one or the other, it cant be both.

Yep Playstation home consoles have been pretty stable with the exception of PS3, not gonna deny that.

3DS averaged over 12 million per year in its first 4 years on the market, its not some unfathomable idea that Switch could do the same.

Of course it can be both, The PS4 is currently selling very close to the rate the PS2 (the most successful video game console ever). Now, no one expects the PS4 to do PS2 levels mainly because of how cheap Sony managed to sell the PS2 for and how long they sold it for, however, all signs indicate that whatever momentum Sony lost with the PS3 it's surely regained. Yes, it's given up on the handheld market, as that userbase has appeared to have moved on to phones and tablets for the most part. As for Microsoft? I don't personally think they ever had long term plans in the console space. I believe they always treated their Xbox division as a means of getting people invested in the ecosystem they've created, and then leverage that to supply their PC investments. It appears we're now seeing that come to fruition, as I now believe they're pivoting away from the Xbox being a home video game console, and will be treating the Xbox label as a brand of "gaming ready" PCs in the future that will allow developers to see some of the gains of optimizing for a console while supporting a few different specifications to ensure engines don't have to be as bloated as they would be for PC (Similar to what I believe Nintendo is doing with the Switch's operating modes). MS is releasing few, if any Xbox One exclusives now that they've seen many of their Xbox 360 fanbase either go back to Playstation or simply moving on to the PC where they can play the vast majority of the games they used to enjoy on their Xbox 360.

But Nintendo? In all seriousness, if your assumptions are right and the Switch will cover both the handheld and home markets, and truly is a hybrid device, and you're optimistic for 12 million a year in sales, then that is a massive gap from the 20-23 million combined they were selling annually in the 90's. It appears that a large portion of Nintendo's fans that were playing their consoles 15-20 years ago are no longer doing so. It appears that they've lost people to Playstation and Xbox, and even more people to mobile phones and tablets when looking at where GBA, NDS and even PSP owners are now playing. In my opinion, both Sony and Nintendo have both seen the end for dedicated handheld consoles, the main difference here is that Nintendo's handheld userbase is still significant enough to make it worth the effort to try and entice those users to remain on the Nintendo platform by offering them a compromise.

 

As a Nintendo fan, I do feel compromised. Good call.

   

Hey! They got SONY on my amiibo! Wait a minute. Two great gaming tastes that game great together!

Switch FC: SW-0398-8858-1969

potato_hamster said:
zorg1000 said:

Thats not a straw man, you said Nintendo being down 20-25% is a massive decline, that means that the Xbox & Playstation ecosystems are very likely to be suffering massive declines as well. Either the Nintendo decline isnt as significant as you are making it out to be or the entire dedicated gaming market is in massive decline. Its one or the other, it cant be both.

Yep Playstation home consoles have been pretty stable with the exception of PS3, not gonna deny that.

3DS averaged over 12 million per year in its first 4 years on the market, its not some unfathomable idea that Switch could do the same.

Of course it can be both, The PS4 is currently selling very close to the rate the PS2 (the most successful video game console ever). Now, no one expects the PS4 to do PS2 levels mainly because of how cheap Sony managed to sell the PS2 for and how long they sold it for, however, all signs indicate that whatever momentum Sony lost with the PS3 it's surely regained. Yes, it's given up on the handheld market, as that userbase has appeared to have moved on to phones and tablets for the most part. As for Microsoft? I don't personally think they ever had long term plans in the console space. I believe they always treated their Xbox division as a means of getting people invested in the ecosystem they've created, and then leverage that to supply their PC investments. It appears we're now seeing that come to fruition, as I now believe they're pivoting away from the Xbox being a home video game console, and will be treating the Xbox label as a brand of "gaming ready" PCs in the future that will allow developers to see some of the gains of optimizing for a console while supporting a few different specifications to ensure engines don't have to be as bloated as they would be for PC (Similar to what I believe Nintendo is doing with the Switch's operating modes). MS is releasing few, if any Xbox One exclusives now that they've seen many of their Xbox 360 fanbase either go back to Playstation or simply moving on to the PC where they can play the vast majority of the games they used to enjoy on their Xbox 360.

But Nintendo? In all seriousness, if your assumptions are right and the Switch will cover both the handheld and home markets, and truly is a hybrid device, and you're optimistic for 12 million a year in sales, then that is a massive gap from the 20-23 million combined they were selling annually in the 90's. It appears that a large portion of Nintendo's fans that were playing their consoles 15-20 years ago are no longer doing so. It appears that they've lost people to Playstation and Xbox, and even more people to mobile phones and tablets when looking at where GBA, NDS and even PSP owners are now playing. In my opinion, both Sony and Nintendo have both seen the end for dedicated handheld consoles, the main difference here is that Nintendo's handheld userbase is still significant enough to make it worth the effort to try and entice those users to remain on the Nintendo platform by offering them a compromise.

Your first paragraph seems to be nothing more than deflection.

You are the one who said Nintendo would be lucky to sell 12 million in a year, not me.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
potato_hamster said:

Of course it can be both, The PS4 is currently selling very close to the rate the PS2 (the most successful video game console ever). Now, no one expects the PS4 to do PS2 levels mainly because of how cheap Sony managed to sell the PS2 for and how long they sold it for, however, all signs indicate that whatever momentum Sony lost with the PS3 it's surely regained. Yes, it's given up on the handheld market, as that userbase has appeared to have moved on to phones and tablets for the most part. As for Microsoft? I don't personally think they ever had long term plans in the console space. I believe they always treated their Xbox division as a means of getting people invested in the ecosystem they've created, and then leverage that to supply their PC investments. It appears we're now seeing that come to fruition, as I now believe they're pivoting away from the Xbox being a home video game console, and will be treating the Xbox label as a brand of "gaming ready" PCs in the future that will allow developers to see some of the gains of optimizing for a console while supporting a few different specifications to ensure engines don't have to be as bloated as they would be for PC (Similar to what I believe Nintendo is doing with the Switch's operating modes). MS is releasing few, if any Xbox One exclusives now that they've seen many of their Xbox 360 fanbase either go back to Playstation or simply moving on to the PC where they can play the vast majority of the games they used to enjoy on their Xbox 360.

But Nintendo? In all seriousness, if your assumptions are right and the Switch will cover both the handheld and home markets, and truly is a hybrid device, and you're optimistic for 12 million a year in sales, then that is a massive gap from the 20-23 million combined they were selling annually in the 90's. It appears that a large portion of Nintendo's fans that were playing their consoles 15-20 years ago are no longer doing so. It appears that they've lost people to Playstation and Xbox, and even more people to mobile phones and tablets when looking at where GBA, NDS and even PSP owners are now playing. In my opinion, both Sony and Nintendo have both seen the end for dedicated handheld consoles, the main difference here is that Nintendo's handheld userbase is still significant enough to make it worth the effort to try and entice those users to remain on the Nintendo platform by offering them a compromise.

Your first paragraph seems to be nothing more than deflection.

You are the one who said Nintendo would be lucky to sell 12 million in a year, not me.


No, I never said that Nintendo would be lucky to sell 12 million a year, I said they'd be happy if the Switch averages 12 million a year. Answer me this, do you honestly think Nintendo expects the Switch to sell more than 15 million a year average for the life of the Switch? Or better yet, how many Switches do you believe Nintendo will sell?



WE don't have any numbers. It could still be quite a shock to us. Everyone is going off of older development kits hardware. Nintendo alongside Nvidia are planning something very big. I expect the system to be below Xbox One power but as a handheld hybrid that has console quality games (easily) that's the major selling point.

I expect a upgrade dock in the near future adding additional horse power to the device on top of simply having a continuous power source.