Every single one of those has to be correct or shes the clown.

That's not even a fraction of a fraction of "more games in its first year than the Wii U had in 4." I knew she was grossly exaggerating, even if this isn't the full list.

At launch. Yes, that's impressive and counts. I have explained several times that the launch of the Wii was gamers buying it for Zelda. Only the launch. Mainstream then entered. If they have sold Wii Sports as a standalone game I can bet you and anyone TP would have outsold.

And by launch I mean launch. Not first month or lifetime. Only launch.

Zelda, a game that must have been released a year ago and a bunch of ports does not make an impressive launch. But the rest sounds good. Pikmin 4, 3D Mario and new IP. Retro has a lot to prove after the 2D DK to be considered as an exciting game.

Personally, I don't think the quality of software at launch is particularly important for Switch in terms of it's chances at success. Of course there will be something decent at launch, but there is a couple million die-hard Nintendo fans who will get Switch day one anyway. Wii U sold 3.06m between it's launch in November 2012 and the end of December the same year. That's pretty good, PS4 got around 4.2m in the same timeframe I believe, and is rightfully considered a very successful launch.

The problem came after, when 2013 came around. Lego City Undercover in March, Super Luigi U and Game & Wario in June, Pikmin 3 and Pokemon Rumble U in August, Wonderful 101 in September, Wii Party U and Windwaker HD in October and Wii Fit U and Super Mario 3D World in November. That lineup, in terms of selling systems, is shit (decent though in terms of quality, Pikmin 3 and W101 were great alongside Zelda and Mario). A mixture of niche to middling games that would always struggle and Nintendo trying to recapture casuals from the Wii that were simply no longer interested. Only Zelda and Mario to move systems, and the impact of Zelda lessened considerably due to it being a remake.

The Switch needs momentum after launch more than anything. So having Mario and an upgraded Splatoon and Mario Kart at launch is good enough (still only talking about sales). Then you could have Pikmin 4, say in May, Smash Upgraded Edition in the summer, and perhaps Zelda around September, with unannounced releases for October and November. I fancy a Luigi's Mansion 3 is being made, but whatever it is, those Holiday games need to be big. A Pokemon port of Sun/Moon would probably do the job.

I've simplified things because I don't want to write anymore, but I think momentum of software after launch is key to Switch, and something the Wii U didn't have.

Wii U was overshipped. Actual sales were lower.

Do we know what actual sales wer eby the end of 2012?

I honestly don't know how to find it. But we knew because Dec 2012 NPD for Wii U was awful and never recovered.

Fact that Zelda was an schedule to release year ago really doesn't change anything, it will be must have game and reason to own Switch in any case.

Wanting to play more but receiving just one game at launch day proves how lackuster it is. It's not that you'll go month without games, it's that the launch lineup is incredibly lame by having only one. You kinda defeat your hypotetical argument wanting to play something that the one specific game, which then again means 50 games + 1 is just better than 1, in both mine and yours case. Told you already, your hypotetical scenario doesn't serve us for naught, because no one wants to play just one game through months.

Just because you don't plant to get more than one, which you're already, inadvertedly, including a second one (and thus defeating the original hypotetical scenario regardless), doesn't mean the lineup becomes amazing because you have one game to choose. Because that's the point, you only have one, just one new game to choose. You don't get the benefit of choosing when it comes to new games.

Look at this from this angle. If both Zelda and Mario were releasing Day One, you'll choose Mario again? Or you'd think about it?

Yes, she was grossly exaggerating, now she is just saying Switch 1st year linep will blown away Wii Us 1st year lineup, and this list proves that.