Rumour: Splatoon packed with Switch, new 3D Mario and Skyrim on launch, Mario Kart 8 remaster..

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celador said:
Personally, I don't think the quality of software at launch is particularly important for Switch in terms of it's chances at success. Of course there will be something decent at launch, but there is a couple million die-hard Nintendo fans who will get Switch day one anyway. Wii U sold 3.06m between it's launch in November 2012 and the end of December the same year. That's pretty good, PS4 got around 4.2m in the same timeframe I believe, and is rightfully considered a very successful launch.

The problem came after, when 2013 came around. Lego City Undercover in March, Super Luigi U and Game & Wario in June, Pikmin 3 and Pokemon Rumble U in August, Wonderful 101 in September, Wii Party U and Windwaker HD in October and Wii Fit U and Super Mario 3D World in November. That lineup, in terms of selling systems, is shit (decent though in terms of quality, Pikmin 3 and W101 were great alongside Zelda and Mario). A mixture of niche to middling games that would always struggle and Nintendo trying to recapture casuals from the Wii that were simply no longer interested. Only Zelda and Mario to move systems, and the impact of Zelda lessened considerably due to it being a remake.

The Switch needs momentum after launch more than anything. So having Mario and an upgraded Splatoon and Mario Kart at launch is good enough (still only talking about sales). Then you could have Pikmin 4, say in May, Smash Upgraded Edition in the summer, and perhaps Zelda around September, with unannounced releases for October and November. I fancy a Luigi's Mansion 3 is being made, but whatever it is, those Holiday games need to be big. A Pokemon port of Sun/Moon would probably do the job.

I've simplified things because I don't want to write anymore, but I think momentum of software after launch is key to Switch, and something the Wii U didn't have.

Wii U was overshipped. Actual sales were lower.