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Forums - Sales Discussion - Amazon U.S. November bestsellers and general Amazon-based discussion

Welfare said:
CGI-Quality said:

 Okay, and? Why are you boiling all of this down to one day , while leaving out that there was no Pro last year?

The Pro equivalent last year were the CoD and Battlefront bundles. Those did a combined 626k of the PS4's 1.539m. PS4 isn't doing 1.5m this year in addition to whatever the Pro will sell.

Eh, i really don't know. In the end, those were just bundles with a new game. PRO is literally a new model.
But is true, last year bundles for PS4 were way better. Not only this, but this year literally all November release for XBO and PS4 are underperforming massively, like seriusly, the only game which is doing great is BF1 but i released on October. Only Pokémon gonna do insane this holidays.

 

Black Ops III, Fallout 4, and Star Wars were WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY bigger than Infinite Warfare, Watch_Dogs 2 and Dishonored 2.
And another important point, the PS4 is already down YOY before November. And no, can't be only because the PRO, because PS4 is literally down YOY since June, so nope.

 

We'll see i guess. But i honestly believe this can be said for XBO as well. this years deals are very great, but not as last year, and the line up theory for PS4 is the same forr XBO, it just has nothing which can compete with Black Ops, Fallout and Star Wars.

There is a important difference though, XBO since Slim released is up YOY. Even in the Halo month. Who know.

 

I'll wait for the Black Friday PR if there will be one. Won't be surprised if both XBO and PS4 are down YOY...



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Teeqoz said:

 

Now of course, there is a possibility that they sold fewer, despite shipping more

Then no offense but the rest of the comment make no sense.



thismeintiel said:

 


And I can't believe people actually think its going to be close, as in less than 100K. We have great pre-order results for the Pro, confirmed by insiders on Gaf and Amazon results.

But what are the numbers? Great pre orders and all, but withouth numbers?

I have only UK numbers, which are just UK ok, but at least i have something more than "great pre orders" :

PS4 = 85k ; XBO = 69k

This for the first 2 weeks of November, so this include the launch of the PRO. What i see is a close situation, and if you are saying that Black Friday will be close, then this gap is only going to decrease in term of %. 

 

PRO sold 42,000 first week in UK, which is only less than 1/5 of the original PS4 launch (250k). If that's the same for the US, then PS4 PRO first week sales should be close to 200k or so.

For the lord of god don't get me wrong, i'm not saying is a bad results, it's pretty good for a mid generation version of a console, but this just doesn't seem that crazy. And no, i don't trusth Amazon so much again, not after the last two NPD who showed a clear victory for Xbox one.

 

EDIT: And as well we can see Japan numbers... PS4 PRO is doing pretty "meh" in Japan, like is already selling half of the original PS4. But i didn't mentioned Japan numbers for the simple fact that many people believe "it's not going to be accurate for a west comparation", while in my opinion, honestly, will be closer than what many people believe...



Ryng_Tolu said:
Teeqoz said:

 

Now of course, there is a possibility that they sold fewer, despite shipping more

Then no offense but the rest of the comment make no sense.

What about it makes no sense?



Ryng_Tolu said:
thismeintiel said:

 


And I can't believe people actually think its going to be close, as in less than 100K. We have great pre-order results for the Pro, confirmed by insiders on Gaf and Amazon results.

 

EDIT: And as well we can see Japan numbers... PS4 PRO is doing pretty "meh" in Japan, like is already selling half of the original PS4. But i didn't mentioned Japan numbers for the simple fact that many people believe "it's not going to be accurate for a west comparation", while in my opinion, honestly, will be closer than what many people believe...

PS4 Pro has supply issues in Japan, they sell out quickly at online retailers as soon as there is stock. Using those numbers right now is pointless



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Teeqoz said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

Then no offense but the rest of the comment make no sense.

What about it makes no sense?

Literally what you said.

"Now of course, there is a possibility that they sold fewer, despite shipping more"

This is true. You are way wrong here though:

"it seems more likely that they also sold more when they shipped more."

No, is not. Do you really think is likely they sold more only because they shipped more? There are a lot of reasons why shipments can looks higher. Let me tell you an example.

 

PS4 was up YOY in USA, Japan, and UK for the first 3 months of 2016. Is likely that PS4 was up YOY Worldwide with all those 3 countries be up. What shipped Sony in Q1 2016 and 2015?

 

2015 = 2.4 million
2016 = 2.3 million

Does this mean PS4 is most likely down YOY because they shipped more last year? no. They were down YOY because by end of 2015 they overshipped MASSIVELY the PS4, like there were 1.8 million units in store. That's why they didn't shipped much in the firsts 3 months of 2016, the stock was already high.

But, we only have data for USA, Japan, and UK, and in those 3 countries which are also the most importants, we know PS4 was up. So no, in this case, shipments really doesn't mean much.

 

 

Same now. Only because Sony shipped what? 400k more than last year? this doesn't mean they sold more. Look at official sales from Sony: PS4 was at 40 million sold by the 3 week of May 2016.

Then, they shipped 43.5 million by end of June 2016. 3.5 million difference? Ok, let's say PS4 sold an (optimist) 200k the last week of May WW. that's +40.2m.

We know it sold 235k in USA, and 120k in Japan in June. Let's be WAY generus, and let's say they sold 1 million in June 2016 (which looks way high considering USA and Japan numbers)... that's 41.2m units sold... in any case, there are MINIMUM 2 million units PS4 in stock by end of June. This mean PS4 was overshipped back in June.

Then, they shipped 3.9 million units the others 3 months. This mean that, if before PS4 was overshipped, they should AT LEAST have sold more than what they have shipped from July to September 2016. But, doesn't look even possible.

Official numbers, 600k in USA in July+Aug+Sep.
Japan is 330k Jul + Aug + Sep

USA+Jap is under 1 million. Do you really believe PS4 has sold 2.9 million outside USA and Japan in ONLY those 3 months? Doesn't looks likely, so this mean Sony has overshipped PS4 again. Right now PS4 is severely overshipped.

 

You see the point? If PS4 is overshipped so much, doesn't make sense talk about shipments saying "it's most likely selling more because shipments are better".

 

To be fair i'm not saying PS4 is down YOY... it can be, but in anycase, shipments is the worst thing you may look at.

 

EDIT: Ok i noted that i used a lot of math in my comment. Have you understand or should i express myself better?

 

celador said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

 

EDIT: And as well we can see Japan numbers... PS4 PRO is doing pretty "meh" in Japan, like is already selling half of the original PS4. But i didn't mentioned Japan numbers for the simple fact that many people believe "it's not going to be accurate for a west comparation", while in my opinion, honestly, will be closer than what many people believe...

PS4 Pro has supply issues in Japan, they sell out quickly at online retailers as soon as there is stock. Using those numbers right now is pointless

Then use UK numbers.



3 hours since last update:

HARDWARE
#01 PS4s UC4 Bundle (same)
#16 XB1s-500gb Battlefield Bundle (down 2)
#17 XB1s-500gb Minecraft Bundle (down 6)
#29 N3DSXL Lime (down 2)
#35 XB1s-1tb Battflield Bundle (down 2)
#51 N3DS Mario Black (up 48)
#57 N3DS Mario White (re-entry)
#62 PS4 Pro (down 3)
#74 XB1s-1tb Gears Bundle (same)
#81 N3DSXL Black (up 4)
#93 WiiU Mario Kart Bundle (up 5)

SOFTWARE (pre-orders only)

Nothing at the moment


PS4:
2 in the top 100 / 1 in the top 50 / 1 in the top 20 / 1 in the top 10 / 1 in the top 5
XB1:
4 in the top 100 / 3 in the top 50 / 2 in the top 20 / 0 in the top 10 / 0 in the top 5



 

The PS5 Exists. 


jason1637 said:

On Amazon last year during black Friday the ranking were

#01 PS4 Nathan Drake Bundle (same)
#05 XB1 Gears Bundle (same)
#06 3DS Mario Land Bundle (same)
#12 PS4 Nathan Drake Digital Bundle (down 1)
#20 XB1 Three Games Bundle (up 6)
#21 PS4 Star Wars Standard Bundle (up 4)
#31 XB1 Fallout Bundle (down 11)
#36 PS4 Black Ops Bundle (down 1)
#43 XB1 Lego Bundle (same)
#64 XB1 FIFA Bundle (up 6)

 http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=7634357

Right now its

#1 PS4 UC4

#11 XB1S Minecraft

#14 XB1S BF1

#27 3DS Lime

#33 XB1S BF1 SE

#59 PS4Pro

#74 XB1S Gears 4

#85 3DS XL

#95 Wii U

#99 3DS

 

But you're missing some important pieces of information. Firstly the PS4 Slim only has one bundle so not sure why you expect there to be around the same bundles in the top 100 as last year.

You dismiss the momentum of the Pro which seems to have huge preorders and held a good rank constantly on the hourly. Your reasons being that it's not doing well right now which common sense will tell you the PS4 sku with the deal will get all the sales on Black Friday. Sony, predictably, is pushing the Slim for the bargains over the holidays so it's not surprising for the PS4 sales swing over to the Slim.

Then you seem to proclaim XB1 is winning when you have no idea how to gauge how good PS4 Slim sales are doing right now on Amazon. It's number one so sales could be well north of the item at no.2. If it was second or lower then we could maybe get a better idea.

Of course you could be right about it being close but I think you're being ignorant of a few factors. 



celador said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

 

EDIT: And as well we can see Japan numbers... PS4 PRO is doing pretty "meh" in Japan, like is already selling half of the original PS4. But i didn't mentioned Japan numbers for the simple fact that many people believe "it's not going to be accurate for a west comparation", while in my opinion, honestly, will be closer than what many people believe...

PS4 Pro has supply issues in Japan, they sell out quickly at online retailers as soon as there is stock. Using those numbers right now is pointless

Exactly.  Also, Amazon represents a much larger portion of the market in the US than it does in many other countries.  WE also have had the Pro ahead for awhile on Gamestop, and 2 PS4 Slim models are #1 and #2 currently, which is the largest retailer for video games.



SWORDF1SH said:

But you're missing some important pieces of information. Firstly the PS4 Slim only has one bundle so not sure why you expect there to be around the same bundles in the top 100 as last year.

You dismiss the momentum of the Pro which seems to have huge preorders and held a good rank constantly on the hourly. Your reasons being that it's not doing well right now which common sense will tell you the PS4 sku with the deal will get all the sales on Black Friday. Sony, predictably, is pushing the Slim for the bargains over the holidays so it's not surprising for the PS4 sales swing over to the Slim.

Then you seem to proclaim XB1 is winning when you have no idea how to gauge how good PS4 Slim sales are doing right now on Amazon. It's number one so sales could be well north of the item at no.2. If it was second or lower then we could maybe get a better idea.

Of course you could be right about it being close but I think you're being ignorant of a few factors. 

Yep. You don't hold #01 for that long by just selling 'enough', you would have to sell 'more than enough' to hold #01. The sales between #01 and #16 are likely to be huge.



 

The PS5 Exists.