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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - The next Nintendo Handheld needs to be more powerful

zorg1000 said:
Soundwave said:

 

If they're making a dedicated video game console .... I'm sorry but the reality that they're going to have to accept is they ARE competing with Sony/MS whether they want to or not. Wii could alter that because the controller brought in tons of casuals, but that doesn't happen without that controller. 

Kids know the XBox and Playstation brand, they're not going to buy a "Nintendo" that's 1/2 the power of the other two and has 10 games versus 2000 for the PS4 by that time just to save $50-$100 on a five year hardware investment. 

Third parties won't support an underpowered Nintendo console ever again either. After Wii U, EA, Activision, and many others are out for sure for that type of proposition. 

There would HAVE to be a mind blowing, industry altering controller for your equation to work. 

I don't think they could even get to GameCube level sales. Just being "cheap" isn't good enough.

Like I don't mean to sound rude about it, but I'm just being real here and not looking at it from "Nintendo fan" rose tinted glasses. This is a system no one but Nintendo hardcore fanatics would buy realistically. NX needs to be much more bold and change many more aspects of Nintendo's (flawed) hardware equation that exists today. 

The Wii did not sell because it was "cheap". At $250 it wasn't even that cheap (about $300 today after inflation, so the Wii U today is the same price and actually comes with 2 free games instead of 1). You could get an XBox 360 for $50 more from day 1 back then too. The reason it sold was because the controller absolutely offered an industry shaking revolution that attracted a completely new audience that was having basically 0 games made for it. 

If Nintendo has *that* idea just waiting in the wings, great, try that again, but my guess is they don't, and if they don't, that's not the end of the world but they have to start thinking outside of the box. 

 

Yes, they will compete in the general sense that every consumer product competes with one another in some form but that does not mean they are in DIRECT competition. Are $300 laptops direct competitors to $1000 Macbooks? What about cheap $100 android tablets, are they competing directly with the $800+ Surface Pro or iPad Pro? Does the $200, 32", 720p TV compete directly with the $1000, 50"+, 4k TV? Do cheap sub-$100 off contract phones compete directly with the flagship Galaxy or iPhone? The answer to all these questions is no, they are similar products but clearly aimed at different demographics just like NX will be to PS/XB.

Casual is not a demographic, it's a stupid term that "hardcore" gamers came up with to discredit sales of devices and games that dont cater specifically to them. And again, controller was not the only selling point of Wii, the combination of software+marketing+price+aiming at a demographic that the others were neglecting were huge factors as well, without those things a controller is useless. So yes the Wii Remote was a major factor in the success of Wii but it was not even close to the only major factor. And once again, why does the console need to replicate the sales of Wii to be a success?

Japanese & indie developers will be on board, Nintendo has strong relations with these types of developers. As far as Western 3rd parties, there are basically 6 major western publishers, EA, Activision, Ubisoft, Warner, Bethesda, Take Two. Bethesda & Take Two have never supported Nintendo in a meaningful way so not having them doesn't really affect Nintendo. As far as the other 4, they will surely give at least minimal support at the beginning and further support will rely on whether or not their games sell well and are profitable, at the bare minimum it just gets the kid/family friendly titles from them that Nintendo currently gets. So worst case scenario is that Nintendo has a strong software output of Nintendo games+Japanese games+indie games+kid/family friendly games.

The problem is there aren't these massive different areas of console demographics. Consoles by their nature are a fairly cheap, easy to use product. That's the entire *point* a home video game console from the onset that they are a cheap, dummy-proof alternative to PCs. 

Yes, that means Sony and MS too. $299-$349 for an XBox One is not a "luxury" item, Sony/MS are not selling Rolls Royce and Lamborghinis here while Nintendo is some mass market savior offering Honda Civics to people who can't possibly afford such luxury items. Or to your analogy, Nintendo sure as hell is not offering $300 laptops to $1000+ Playstation laptops. At best this will be a $100 difference, as PS4/XB1 will be even cheaper a year from now, let alone two.

This is why a $99 GameCube got beat by both the more expensive PS2 and XBox. Game consoles are *all* cheap relatively, what it comes down then it who is offering the best value, and this is painful for some Nintendo fans to hear, but a PS4 with 10x more games offers far more value than Wii U does even if the PS4 costs a little more upfront. Here's a newsflash ... it ain't just rich folkes buying a PS4 ... it's "broke" college kids, it's households making $40k a year in a run down neighborhood, etc. etc. too. 

It's time Nintendo gets its head out of the clouds and realize they're not only in a boxing fight, they're getting their head punched in, and if they don't start swinging back and fighting smart, they are going to get their ass knocked out.

Also I think Nintendo is going to have to accept a painful truth ... the "family console" market doesn't exist in 2015 the way it did in 1985 or 1995. The console market of today is 95% based in North America and Europe (not 50% in Japan) and they are largely purchased either by A) Grown adults or B) Kids who don't want to play Mario Kart but desperately want GTAV for social acceptance in their peer group. 

That's just the reality of it. If Nintendo had some firm lock on the kids console market, they would not be in the situation they are in right now. Indie developers aren't going to save Nintendo either because they basically put their games on every console, so that's not a savior for them. 

It's time also that more sane people within Nintendo's leadership structure *stepped up* and started making sane decisions in touch with the reality of the market today. Stop living in the 80s/90s. Miyamoto is a brilliant game designer, but he needs to be kept the fuck away from making hardware decisions. You don't let Willy Wonka run the accounting and business side of the chocolate factory. 



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Jumpin said:
Nintendo's not going to make any more traditional handhelds.

 Obviously, because Nintendo is making profit with the home console business (including games) but a lot of losses with the handheld business (including games)...





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Soundwave said:
garretslarrity said:
hershel_layton said:

The 3DS is a disappointment when it comes to specs. 240p screen, mediocre battery life, ridiculously low RAM amount, and so on.

It is now 2016, and I think the wide range of options for a handheld device is very beneficial for Nintendo...that is, if they pay attention.

Now, without a do, here are the specs I think Nintendo's next handheld should be.

 

1) a 720/1080p screen(and a lower resolution screen for the bottom[if they make the handheld like the 3DS])

2) No less than 1 GB of ram. 2 or 3 is recommended

3) A processor along the lines of Qualcomm's Snapdragon 400/600 series(slightly less wouldn't hurt).

4) No 3D. The gimmick isn't needed. Even the "improved stable 3D'' is still flawed. Besides, 3D isn't that much of an attraction point for people nowadays.

5) Improved OS. The 3DS(and Wii U) really need a better OS for their future replacements. Getting a friendcode and needing the other person to add you is extremely frustrating. An ID and message board would be much better( and if people care so much, they can put restrictions for the kiddies).

6) Reasonable price tag- Nintendo screwed up when they made the 3DS $250 in the beginning. If they're making a regular sized handheld and a larger version, they should make the prices at the most 200. 

 

 

Now, some of you may think the specs I am recommending will make the NX handheld too much. However, many gadgets nowadays can easily have said specs(and better) for a low price. Demanding top-tier specs is out of the question. However, after seeing many budget tablets and phones be much more powerful than the 3DS and only cost along the lines of $50-200 is ridiculous. 

 

Hopefully Nintendo doesn't stick with weak hardware.

I disagree with your design philosophy.  What makes handhelds, specifically Nintendo handhelds, successful is that they are cheap.  You could say the same about consoles, but to a lesser extent than handhelds.

 

1.  Way too high.  Even with their handheld screens getting larger, that kind of resolution is not necessary.  It would look nice, but come at the cost of 1. more powerful components to run the system at that resolution 2. a more expensive screen and 3. lower battery life due to #1.  They could include a larger battery, but this just further increases the costs on top of what #1  and #2 already have.  Low resolutions are the way to go with handhelds.

 

2. This I agree with.  We saw with the 3DS how it was limited by the amount of RAM (with games such as Smash and Monster Hunter 4 having to disable the web browser and Miiverse to play the game), and unlike with having a more powerful CPU, having more RAM does not consume more power and lead to decreases in battery life.

 

3. I don't know exactly how powerful those CPUs are, but just keep in mind what I mentioned earlier, how adding a more powerful CPU not only increases costs due to the CPU itself, but by the additional power it requires. 

 

4. This I agree with you on 100%.  It increases the costs, requires more resources (which therefore increases costs again) and consumes battery for both the aforementioned reasons.  

 

5.  Of course.

 

6.  Absolutely.  Just realize you can't have this if you want an HD screen (or two of them for that matter) and a powerful CPU.  It's one or the other, and I think the reasonable price tag is by far the better option for Nintendo and its customers.



Nintendo handhelds are losing popularity, they're really only "massively" successful in Japan, the erosion of their marketshare in the US and Europe is bordering on a full-on collapse if you study their actual hardware shipments in these regions and look at what even the GBA and GBC sold here (if you want to discount the DS). 

What's happened is the smartphone/tablet thing wasn't a "one time" thing. Imagine being kicked in the balls. Now imagine being kicked in the balls like four times in a row. That's more like what's happening to Nintendo with portables, smartphones was the first kick in the balls, then came the iPad (tablet), and then the huge kick in the balls .... cheap Android tablets. Kids can now get tablets for $99 that play tons of games (if it had just stayed at the iPad for $500 a pop, Nintendo might have been OK). 

This is also why the first half of the 3DS' life cycle was relatively OK, they were still insulated from phones and tablets. No 10 year old was going to have their own iPad, it was a luxury item at first only for a select audience when it first came out. The iOS shop really didn't even gain traction until 2010, there were no cheapo tablets until about 2012/2013. But we've seen since about 2013 that 3DS sales have nose-dived like crazy even despite the introduction of big games like Pokemon X/Y and the 2DS. 

Ask yourself if "cheap" is the be-all, end-all for Nintendo portables why is the most expensive 3DS model, by far the best selling one? 

The actual market for 3DS these days are actually adults, not kids (outside of Japan). If it was kids, the 2DS should be the best selling model as its basically Nintendo painfully marketed "for kids 3DS model" right down to the cheap Fisher Price plastic design. Nintendo's adult fans are the ones saving their ass right now, not kids. Those 30-year-old grown men buying Princess Peach Amiibos? Those guys are the ones saving Nintendo's ass right now, not little Johnny, little Johnny is more impressed with the PS4 and trying to trick his mom into buying him GTA4. 

 

My response to the OP was based solely on hardware design, specifically about where to make cuts in order to find the ideal balance between price and power.  Never once did I mention games, marketing, or demographics.  

 

I agree that the issues you layed out in your post are present.  However, you do not explain how making the system more expensive fixes any of those issues.

 

P.S.  If you're wondering why the 2DS is the least selling model, it's not because it's the cheapest.  It's because the damn thing doesn't fold.



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Soundwave said:
zorg1000 said:
Soundwave said:

 

If they're making a dedicated video game console .... I'm sorry but the reality that they're going to have to accept is they ARE competing with Sony/MS whether they want to or not. Wii could alter that because the controller brought in tons of casuals, but that doesn't happen without that controller. 

Kids know the XBox and Playstation brand, they're not going to buy a "Nintendo" that's 1/2 the power of the other two and has 10 games versus 2000 for the PS4 by that time just to save $50-$100 on a five year hardware investment. 

Third parties won't support an underpowered Nintendo console ever again either. After Wii U, EA, Activision, and many others are out for sure for that type of proposition. 

There would HAVE to be a mind blowing, industry altering controller for your equation to work. 

I don't think they could even get to GameCube level sales. Just being "cheap" isn't good enough.

Like I don't mean to sound rude about it, but I'm just being real here and not looking at it from "Nintendo fan" rose tinted glasses. This is a system no one but Nintendo hardcore fanatics would buy realistically. NX needs to be much more bold and change many more aspects of Nintendo's (flawed) hardware equation that exists today. 

The Wii did not sell because it was "cheap". At $250 it wasn't even that cheap (about $300 today after inflation, so the Wii U today is the same price and actually comes with 2 free games instead of 1). You could get an XBox 360 for $50 more from day 1 back then too. The reason it sold was because the controller absolutely offered an industry shaking revolution that attracted a completely new audience that was having basically 0 games made for it. 

If Nintendo has *that* idea just waiting in the wings, great, try that again, but my guess is they don't, and if they don't, that's not the end of the world but they have to start thinking outside of the box. 

 

Yes, they will compete in the general sense that every consumer product competes with one another in some form but that does not mean they are in DIRECT competition. Are $300 laptops direct competitors to $1000 Macbooks? What about cheap $100 android tablets, are they competing directly with the $800+ Surface Pro or iPad Pro? Does the $200, 32", 720p TV compete directly with the $1000, 50"+, 4k TV? Do cheap sub-$100 off contract phones compete directly with the flagship Galaxy or iPhone? The answer to all these questions is no, they are similar products but clearly aimed at different demographics just like NX will be to PS/XB.

Casual is not a demographic, it's a stupid term that "hardcore" gamers came up with to discredit sales of devices and games that dont cater specifically to them. And again, controller was not the only selling point of Wii, the combination of software+marketing+price+aiming at a demographic that the others were neglecting were huge factors as well, without those things a controller is useless. So yes the Wii Remote was a major factor in the success of Wii but it was not even close to the only major factor. And once again, why does the console need to replicate the sales of Wii to be a success?

Japanese & indie developers will be on board, Nintendo has strong relations with these types of developers. As far as Western 3rd parties, there are basically 6 major western publishers, EA, Activision, Ubisoft, Warner, Bethesda, Take Two. Bethesda & Take Two have never supported Nintendo in a meaningful way so not having them doesn't really affect Nintendo. As far as the other 4, they will surely give at least minimal support at the beginning and further support will rely on whether or not their games sell well and are profitable, at the bare minimum it just gets the kid/family friendly titles from them that Nintendo currently gets. So worst case scenario is that Nintendo has a strong software output of Nintendo games+Japanese games+indie games+kid/family friendly games.

The problem is there aren't these massive different areas of console demographics. Consoles by their nature are a fairly cheap, easy to use product. That's the entire *point* a home video game console from the onset that they are a cheap, dummy-proof alternative to PCs. 

Yes, that means Sony and MS too. $299-$349 for an XBox One is not a "luxury" item, Sony/MS are not selling Rolls Royce and Lamborghinis here while Nintendo is some mass market savior offering Honda Civics to people who can't possibly afford such luxury items. Or to your analogy, Nintendo sure as hell is not offering $300 laptops to $1000+ Playstation laptops. At best this will be a $100 difference, as PS4/XB1 will be even cheaper a year from now, let alone two.

This is why a $99 GameCube got beat by both the more expensive PS2 and XBox. Game consoles are *all* cheap relatively, what it comes down then it who is offering the best value, and this is painful for some Nintendo fans to hear, but a PS4 with 10x more games offers far more value than Wii U does even if the PS4 costs a little more upfront. 

It's time Nintendo gets its head out of the clouds and realize they're not only in a boxing fight, they're getting their head punched in, and if they don't start swinging back and fighting smart, they are going to get their ass knocked out.

Also I think Nintendo is going to have to accept a painful truth ... the "family console" market doesn't exist in 2015 the way it did in 1985. The console market of today is 95% based in North America and Europe (not 50% in Japan) and they are largely purchased either by A) Grown adults or B) Kids who don't want to play Mario Kart but desperately want GTAV for social acceptance in their peer group. 

That's just the reality of it. If Nintendo had some firm lock on the kids console market, they would not be in the situation they are in right now. Indie developers aren't going to save Nintendo either because they basically put their games on every console, so that's not a savior for them. 

It's time also that more sane people within Nintendo's leadership structure *stepped up* and started making sane decisions in touch with the reality of the market today. Stop living in the 80s/90s. Miyamoto is a brilliant game designer, but he needs to be kept the fuck away from making hardware decisions. You don't let Willy Wonka run the accounting and business side of the chocolate factory. 

 

90% of games on PS/XB are aimed directly at teenage/adult males. There are a number of demographics not being catered to on consoles and that's something Nintendo should try tapping into again. And don't give the bullshit excuse that kids, females & families are forever trapped on mobile because that's not how it works, if a product is appealing to these demographics than they will purchase it.

You have said it multiple times that the "casual" market is fickle and purchases whatever is the hot, new hyped up product. If that's true than there is nothing stopping these people from also playing games on non-mobile devices if such a device is appealing to them.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

garretslarrity said:
Soundwave said:
garretslarrity said:
hershel_layton said:

The 3DS is a disappointment when it comes to specs. 240p screen, mediocre battery life, ridiculously low RAM amount, and so on.

It is now 2016, and I think the wide range of options for a handheld device is very beneficial for Nintendo...that is, if they pay attention.

Now, without a do, here are the specs I think Nintendo's next handheld should be.

 

1) a 720/1080p screen(and a lower resolution screen for the bottom[if they make the handheld like the 3DS])

2) No less than 1 GB of ram. 2 or 3 is recommended

3) A processor along the lines of Qualcomm's Snapdragon 400/600 series(slightly less wouldn't hurt).

4) No 3D. The gimmick isn't needed. Even the "improved stable 3D'' is still flawed. Besides, 3D isn't that much of an attraction point for people nowadays.

5) Improved OS. The 3DS(and Wii U) really need a better OS for their future replacements. Getting a friendcode and needing the other person to add you is extremely frustrating. An ID and message board would be much better( and if people care so much, they can put restrictions for the kiddies).

6) Reasonable price tag- Nintendo screwed up when they made the 3DS $250 in the beginning. If they're making a regular sized handheld and a larger version, they should make the prices at the most 200. 

 

 

Now, some of you may think the specs I am recommending will make the NX handheld too much. However, many gadgets nowadays can easily have said specs(and better) for a low price. Demanding top-tier specs is out of the question. However, after seeing many budget tablets and phones be much more powerful than the 3DS and only cost along the lines of $50-200 is ridiculous. 

 

Hopefully Nintendo doesn't stick with weak hardware.

I disagree with your design philosophy.  What makes handhelds, specifically Nintendo handhelds, successful is that they are cheap.  You could say the same about consoles, but to a lesser extent than handhelds.

 

1.  Way too high.  Even with their handheld screens getting larger, that kind of resolution is not necessary.  It would look nice, but come at the cost of 1. more powerful components to run the system at that resolution 2. a more expensive screen and 3. lower battery life due to #1.  They could include a larger battery, but this just further increases the costs on top of what #1  and #2 already have.  Low resolutions are the way to go with handhelds.

 

2. This I agree with.  We saw with the 3DS how it was limited by the amount of RAM (with games such as Smash and Monster Hunter 4 having to disable the web browser and Miiverse to play the game), and unlike with having a more powerful CPU, having more RAM does not consume more power and lead to decreases in battery life.

 

3. I don't know exactly how powerful those CPUs are, but just keep in mind what I mentioned earlier, how adding a more powerful CPU not only increases costs due to the CPU itself, but by the additional power it requires. 

 

4. This I agree with you on 100%.  It increases the costs, requires more resources (which therefore increases costs again) and consumes battery for both the aforementioned reasons.  

 

5.  Of course.

 

6.  Absolutely.  Just realize you can't have this if you want an HD screen (or two of them for that matter) and a powerful CPU.  It's one or the other, and I think the reasonable price tag is by far the better option for Nintendo and its customers.



Nintendo handhelds are losing popularity, they're really only "massively" successful in Japan, the erosion of their marketshare in the US and Europe is bordering on a full-on collapse if you study their actual hardware shipments in these regions and look at what even the GBA and GBC sold here (if you want to discount the DS). 

What's happened is the smartphone/tablet thing wasn't a "one time" thing. Imagine being kicked in the balls. Now imagine being kicked in the balls like four times in a row. That's more like what's happening to Nintendo with portables, smartphones was the first kick in the balls, then came the iPad (tablet), and then the huge kick in the balls .... cheap Android tablets. Kids can now get tablets for $99 that play tons of games (if it had just stayed at the iPad for $500 a pop, Nintendo might have been OK). 

This is also why the first half of the 3DS' life cycle was relatively OK, they were still insulated from phones and tablets. No 10 year old was going to have their own iPad, it was a luxury item at first only for a select audience when it first came out. The iOS shop really didn't even gain traction until 2010, there were no cheapo tablets until about 2012/2013. But we've seen since about 2013 that 3DS sales have nose-dived like crazy even despite the introduction of big games like Pokemon X/Y and the 2DS. 

Ask yourself if "cheap" is the be-all, end-all for Nintendo portables why is the most expensive 3DS model, by far the best selling one? 

The actual market for 3DS these days are actually adults, not kids (outside of Japan). If it was kids, the 2DS should be the best selling model as its basically Nintendo painfully marketed "for kids 3DS model" right down to the cheap Fisher Price plastic design. Nintendo's adult fans are the ones saving their ass right now, not kids. Those 30-year-old grown men buying Princess Peach Amiibos? Those guys are the ones saving Nintendo's ass right now, not little Johnny, little Johnny is more impressed with the PS4 and trying to trick his mom into buying him GTA4. 

 

My response to the OP was based solely on hardware design, specifically about where to make cuts in order to find the ideal balance between price and power.  Never once did I mention games, marketing, or demographics.  

 

I agree that the issues you layed out in your post are present.  However, you do not explain how making the system more expensive fixes any of those issues.

 

P.S.  If you're wondering why the 2DS is the least selling model, it's not because it's the cheapest.  It's because the damn thing doesn't fold.

The reason why I'd advocate for a *slightly* more expensive portable, is I think Nintendo desperately needs to add value to their product and differniate from cheap tablets. Also with the advent of Nintendo IP on cheap tablets and smartphones themselves, you do run that risk of a lot of people saying "well I already got a Mario game on my smartphone, I don't need to pay even $170 + $40 for that on Nintendo portable". 

Nintendo apps on phones/tablets already serves the need for the low-end/casual part of the market. So the dedicated Nintendo portable in this environment must adapt to go higher end IMO. 

You need whatever hook you can to say "well can that cheap tablet do this?". I would advocate then for a fairly high end chip *with* the express clause here though that Nintendo chooses a smart chipset design that will scale down in cost quickly (similar to what Sony did with the PS4). So now wacky/weird propitary design. 

With a high end chip, what that will open the door for are games that are "console quality", in fact the portable may even be able to function as a secondary mini-console type of thing (the graphics are so good you can stream them to your TV lets say). I think that wouldn't be a bad idea either. Then the "full" NX console has permission to be something really high-end, which is exactly what Nintendo needs to be competetive in today's console market which is largely adult driven and based in NA + Europe. 

The regular 3DS still folds though too, and the full size 3DS outsells that model by a good margin too (even that cute N3DS with the candy color SFC retro buttons). So something has to be up there. 

I would say a price point of $219.99-$229.99 would allow Nintendo to get an unreal cheap if they are willing to accept a good quality but cheaper end screen (which would still be a huge upgrade on the 3DS) and sell the thing at cost to begin with. I'd push for that direction. I'm not saying make something crazy like a $300-$400 portable. 

$220 for something you can use as a home console, a portable, has pretty good graphics (not PS4 quality, but equal to or maybe even slightly better than a Wii U), has all the main Nintendo IP (3D Zelda too), and can run Android apps ... I mean for $220-$230, that's a pretty good freaking value, way more than a 3DS at $200, I just think that has a better chance even if some things seem initially counter-intuitive to how Nintendo has made portables in the past. 

Just make damn sure you have some great games upfront, like that new Zelda game and Splatoon 2 not too far afterwards. 



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Soundwave said:

It's time Nintendo gets its head out of the clouds and realize they're not only in a boxing fight, they're getting their head punched in, and if they don't start swinging back and fighting smart, they are going to get their ass knocked out.

Also I think Nintendo is going to have to accept a painful truth ... the "family console" market doesn't exist in 2015 the way it did in 1985 or 1995. The console market of today is 95% based in North America and Europe (not 50% in Japan) and they are largely purchased either by A) Grown adults or B) Kids who don't want to play Mario Kart but desperately want GTAV for social acceptance in their peer group. 

That's just the reality of it. If Nintendo had some firm lock on the kids console market, they would not be in the situation they are in right now. Indie developers aren't going to save Nintendo either because they basically put their games on every console, so that's not a savior for them. 

It's time also that more sane people within Nintendo's leadership structure *stepped up* and started making sane decisions in touch with the reality of the market today. Stop living in the 80s/90s. Miyamoto is a brilliant game designer, but he needs to be kept the fuck away from making hardware decisions. You don't let Willy Wonka run the accounting and business side of the chocolate factory. 

This, a million times this.

The longer Nintendo insists on chasing this extinct dream of a late 80s/early 90s market in 2016, the more they will suffer.  

Whether they like it or not, they are in competition with Playstation and Xbox, and they are getting slaughtered. There is nowhere left for them to retreat to, they either take a stand, or they keep running and die tired.

"Unique" hardware and a lineup consisting primarily of E-rated cartoon games just don't cut it in today's market. Nintendo must adapt.

I know fans don't want to hear this, but it's the truth.



zorg1000 said:
Soundwave said:
zorg1000 said:
Soundwave said:

 

If they're making a dedicated video game console .... I'm sorry but the reality that they're going to have to accept is they ARE competing with Sony/MS whether they want to or not. Wii could alter that because the controller brought in tons of casuals, but that doesn't happen without that controller. 

Kids know the XBox and Playstation brand, they're not going to buy a "Nintendo" that's 1/2 the power of the other two and has 10 games versus 2000 for the PS4 by that time just to save $50-$100 on a five year hardware investment. 

Third parties won't support an underpowered Nintendo console ever again either. After Wii U, EA, Activision, and many others are out for sure for that type of proposition. 

There would HAVE to be a mind blowing, industry altering controller for your equation to work. 

I don't think they could even get to GameCube level sales. Just being "cheap" isn't good enough.

Like I don't mean to sound rude about it, but I'm just being real here and not looking at it from "Nintendo fan" rose tinted glasses. This is a system no one but Nintendo hardcore fanatics would buy realistically. NX needs to be much more bold and change many more aspects of Nintendo's (flawed) hardware equation that exists today. 

The Wii did not sell because it was "cheap". At $250 it wasn't even that cheap (about $300 today after inflation, so the Wii U today is the same price and actually comes with 2 free games instead of 1). You could get an XBox 360 for $50 more from day 1 back then too. The reason it sold was because the controller absolutely offered an industry shaking revolution that attracted a completely new audience that was having basically 0 games made for it. 

If Nintendo has *that* idea just waiting in the wings, great, try that again, but my guess is they don't, and if they don't, that's not the end of the world but they have to start thinking outside of the box. 

 

Yes, they will compete in the general sense that every consumer product competes with one another in some form but that does not mean they are in DIRECT competition. Are $300 laptops direct competitors to $1000 Macbooks? What about cheap $100 android tablets, are they competing directly with the $800+ Surface Pro or iPad Pro? Does the $200, 32", 720p TV compete directly with the $1000, 50"+, 4k TV? Do cheap sub-$100 off contract phones compete directly with the flagship Galaxy or iPhone? The answer to all these questions is no, they are similar products but clearly aimed at different demographics just like NX will be to PS/XB.

Casual is not a demographic, it's a stupid term that "hardcore" gamers came up with to discredit sales of devices and games that dont cater specifically to them. And again, controller was not the only selling point of Wii, the combination of software+marketing+price+aiming at a demographic that the others were neglecting were huge factors as well, without those things a controller is useless. So yes the Wii Remote was a major factor in the success of Wii but it was not even close to the only major factor. And once again, why does the console need to replicate the sales of Wii to be a success?

Japanese & indie developers will be on board, Nintendo has strong relations with these types of developers. As far as Western 3rd parties, there are basically 6 major western publishers, EA, Activision, Ubisoft, Warner, Bethesda, Take Two. Bethesda & Take Two have never supported Nintendo in a meaningful way so not having them doesn't really affect Nintendo. As far as the other 4, they will surely give at least minimal support at the beginning and further support will rely on whether or not their games sell well and are profitable, at the bare minimum it just gets the kid/family friendly titles from them that Nintendo currently gets. So worst case scenario is that Nintendo has a strong software output of Nintendo games+Japanese games+indie games+kid/family friendly games.

The problem is there aren't these massive different areas of console demographics. Consoles by their nature are a fairly cheap, easy to use product. That's the entire *point* a home video game console from the onset that they are a cheap, dummy-proof alternative to PCs. 

Yes, that means Sony and MS too. $299-$349 for an XBox One is not a "luxury" item, Sony/MS are not selling Rolls Royce and Lamborghinis here while Nintendo is some mass market savior offering Honda Civics to people who can't possibly afford such luxury items. Or to your analogy, Nintendo sure as hell is not offering $300 laptops to $1000+ Playstation laptops. At best this will be a $100 difference, as PS4/XB1 will be even cheaper a year from now, let alone two.

This is why a $99 GameCube got beat by both the more expensive PS2 and XBox. Game consoles are *all* cheap relatively, what it comes down then it who is offering the best value, and this is painful for some Nintendo fans to hear, but a PS4 with 10x more games offers far more value than Wii U does even if the PS4 costs a little more upfront. 

It's time Nintendo gets its head out of the clouds and realize they're not only in a boxing fight, they're getting their head punched in, and if they don't start swinging back and fighting smart, they are going to get their ass knocked out.

Also I think Nintendo is going to have to accept a painful truth ... the "family console" market doesn't exist in 2015 the way it did in 1985. The console market of today is 95% based in North America and Europe (not 50% in Japan) and they are largely purchased either by A) Grown adults or B) Kids who don't want to play Mario Kart but desperately want GTAV for social acceptance in their peer group. 

That's just the reality of it. If Nintendo had some firm lock on the kids console market, they would not be in the situation they are in right now. Indie developers aren't going to save Nintendo either because they basically put their games on every console, so that's not a savior for them. 

It's time also that more sane people within Nintendo's leadership structure *stepped up* and started making sane decisions in touch with the reality of the market today. Stop living in the 80s/90s. Miyamoto is a brilliant game designer, but he needs to be kept the fuck away from making hardware decisions. You don't let Willy Wonka run the accounting and business side of the chocolate factory. 

 

90% of games on PS/XB are aimed directly at teenage/adult males. There are a number of demographics not being catered to on consoles and that's something Nintendo should try tapping into again. And don't give the bullshit excuse that kids, females & families are forever trapped on mobile because that's not how it works, if a product is appealing to these demographics than they will purchase it.

You have said it multiple times that the "casual" market is fickle and purchases whatever is the hot, new hyped up product. If that's true than there is nothing stopping these people from also playing games on non-mobile devices if such a device is appealing to them.

 

Unfortunately that IS how the market works. Casual market is largely being served by mobile. Nintendo fans need to face the reality here ... mobile is not some small little sheepish compeitior that can be easily pushed aside. It's arguably snowballed into a monster that's the biggest force in gaming today. More people play free mobile games on a daily basis than likely Sony + MS + Nintendo devices combined. I don't personally like app games, you probably don't, but lets also not be naive to what's actually happening here. 

I'm seeing more TV commercials for damn smartphone games than all console games combined. I've seen that Arnold Schwarzenneger war game commercial like 10+ times this holiday week alone. 

90% of Nintendo are aimed at adults/teens too ... they just have a candy-colored veneer over them whereas Sony/MS use more adult themes, but Splatoon isn't something a soccer mom is going to play without getting her head blown off (errr ... "splatted"). The new Zelda sure as hell ain't for her. Xenoblade? Hah. Even the 3D Marios are too complex for people who don't have developed skills in gaming. If you can play 3D Mario, you can play anything on a Playstation or XBox. 

Nintendo isn't really a "casual gaming" company, even the original Donkey Kong arcade game was hard as hell compared to something like Pac-Man. Their games are as deep and challenging and complex as basically the core industry staples (GTA, "Calladooty" as the kiddies call it, Uncharted, etc.). They just design their games with cartoon characters instead and a little more user friendly to start playing. Making things like Wii Sports and Wii Fit was stepping out of their comfort zone and wasn't really what the company was ever about. It wasn't in their DNA, and they failed to iterate on that with things like Wii Music and Nintendo Land not hitting the same jack pot. 

If Nintendo's R&D has some magic new controller that they've *product tested* (with real human beings) that is elicting the same response the Wiimote did 10 years ago ... then *GREAT*. I agree with you. All your problems are solved Nintendo, make a cheap console and ride that controller like a porn star rides a ... well .... uh ... you get the point. 

But I don't think they have that. Those ideas are exceptionally rare, and even the Wiimote ... they didn't invent that even. It fell into their lap when the inventor of the device (a gaijan American *gasp*!) got turned down by Sony and MS first. That is extremely fortitutous and probably will never happen again. And that's OK. There's no reason to cry or pout if that's the case. 

Get yourself together, get your company together, start listening to the market, work hard (that means market), take some chances on new software. In other words *DO WORK*. Get down on your knees and work your ass off, harder than you've ever worked in your gaming lives Nintendo. Stop waiting for a miracle to bail you out. That might honestly be the best thing for Nintendo as they've needed that kick in the ass for the longest time and this smartphone revolution might be what makes them finally have to sober up. 



Soundwave said:

Nintendo handhelds are losing popularity, they're really only "massively" successful in Japan, the erosion of their marketshare in the US and Europe is bordering on a full-on collapse if you study their actual hardware shipments in these regions and look at what even the GBA and GBC sold here (if you want to discount the DS).  

 

Actually "Others" (Europe, Australia, etc.) has not shown much of a drop from GBA to 3DS.

FY01-4.60m vs FY11/1212-5.29m (only available 2 weeks of FY11)

FY02-3.77/8.37m vs FY13-4.00/9.29m

FY03-5.00/13.37m vs FY14-3.56/12.85m

FY04-4.49/17.86 vs FY15-2.74 million/15.59m

Through roughly 4 years, 3DS is only down about 12-13% compared to GBA, it's really only America that has shown a significant decline compared to GBA.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Soundwave said:

Nintendo handhelds are losing popularity, they're really only "massively" successful in Japan, the erosion of their marketshare in the US and Europe is bordering on a full-on collapse if you study their actual hardware shipments in these regions and look at what even the GBA and GBC sold here (if you want to discount the DS).  

 

Actually "Others" (Europe, Australia, etc.) has not shown much of a drop from GBA to 3DS.

FY01-4.60m vs FY11/1212-5.29m (only available 2 weeks of FY11)

FY02-3.77/8.37m vs FY13-4.00/9.29m

FY03-5.00/13.37m vs FY14-3.56/12.85m

FY04-4.49/17.86 vs FY15-2.74 million/15.59m

Through roughly 4 years, 3DS is only down about 12-13% compared to GBA, it's really only America that has shown a significant decline compared to GBA.

Yeah Nintendo's success in Europe came a bit later, largely because they treated Europe like shit (lets be honest) for the better part of the 80s/90s. 

The drop in the US is absolutely a full on collapse though IMO and the loss of the DS-era Europe for Nintendo is still painful and comes at a very bad time regardless of "well you can't replicate the DS" ... well that really isn't something that helps the board of directors sleep any better at night. 

Nintendo simply cannot function in the same way if their handheld shipments going forward are going to be this low. 

In Japan the real reason it's holding steady is because the DS/3DS have *replaced* the home console as the effective lead dedicated gaming device. This will never happen in Europe or North America. 



Soundwave said:
zorg1000 said:

 

90% of games on PS/XB are aimed directly at teenage/adult males. There are a number of demographics not being catered to on consoles and that's something Nintendo should try tapping into again. And don't give the bullshit excuse that kids, females & families are forever trapped on mobile because that's not how it works, if a product is appealing to these demographics than they will purchase it.

You have said it multiple times that the "casual" market is fickle and purchases whatever is the hot, new hyped up product. If that's true than there is nothing stopping these people from also playing games on non-mobile devices if such a device is appealing to them.

 

Unfortunately that IS how the market works. Casual market is largely being served by mobile. Nintendo fans need to face the reality here ... mobile is not some small little sheepish compeitior that can be easily pushed aside. It's arguably snowballed into a monster that's the biggest force in gaming today. More people play free mobile games on a daily basis than likely Sony + MS + Nintendo devices combined. I don't personally like app games, you probably don't, but lets also not be naive to what's actually happening here. 

If Nintendo's R&D has some magic new controller that they've *product tested* (with real human beings) that is elicting the same response the Wiimote did 10 years ago ... then *GREAT*. I agree with. All your problems are solved Nintendo, ride that controller like a porn star rides a ... well .... uh ... you get the point. 

 

I never said they have to beat mobile, I said if they make a device that appeals to demographics such as children, women, families than it can coexist with mobile. Get the "im not successful unless I win" mentality out of ur head because Nintendo does not need to beat mobile and it doesn't need to beat other consoles to be a success, Nintendo just needs to be profitable while offering up a large enough install base for their IP to sell strong numbers on.

And again stop with the "only way to get kids, females, families to buy our device is if we offer a magical new controller" bullshit because Wii's success is tied to a number of reasons combined, it wasn't one simple reason why it succeeded just like Wii U didn't fail because of one single reason. Like I said, Wii Remote was a major factor for Wii's success but without the combination of the other factors than the Wii Remote wouldn't have done shit for Nintendo.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.