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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - 3DS overtracked. ioi...

torok on 07 May 2015
Yakuzaice said:

It's misleading to base the error on the overall number when you get an update every three months.  If I predict zero 3DS units shipped next quarter, and it actually ships 1m, is that a good prediction?  I would only be off by a couple percent on the lifetime number.

Now if ioi had been on a deserted island with no access to the outside world for the last five years, and had 52m scratched onto a coconut.  That would be impressive.


What was the previous shipment information from Nintendo?



Bet with jetforcejiminy: PS4 will pass the Wii lifetime numbers.

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chapset on 07 May 2015

The 360 is undertracked



Bet reminder: I bet with Tboned51 that Splatoon won't reach the 1 million shipped mark by the end of 2015. I win if he loses and I lose if I lost.

Puppyroach on 07 May 2015

Why not just go by comparing shipments with VGC numbers? It seems as though VGC has some pretty good tracking of 3DS sales.



Ryng on 07 May 2015
chapset said:
The 360 is undertracked

And why you write this in a 3DS thread? o.O



Dr.Vita on 07 May 2015

Nintendo home consoles don't sell good in Europe but handhelds usually do decent. But I think you are right, it is overtracked in North America and in Europe.




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Yakuzaice on 07 May 2015
torok said:

What was the previous shipment information from Nintendo?

The 3DS was at 50.41m shipped as of December 31, 2014.



torok on 07 May 2015
Yakuzaice said:
torok said:

What was the previous shipment information from Nintendo?

The 3DS was at 50.41m shipped as of December 31, 2014.


VGC has it at 49.7M sold in Dec 27th. Looks reasonable, so we would have 0.7M on stock, normal for holidays.

So, if we assume this as correct, VGC has it at 52.2M sold, resulting in 2.5M units sold in the quarter. Nintendo shipped 1.6M units so we have 52.1M consoles in the wild and VGC if obviously off. If the 0.7M on stock is correct for December, we can assume that the stock went down in Q1, simply because you won't ship more consoles that the demand if you already had 0.7M on the shelves.

I think something between 0.3 and 0.4M would be a more reasonable stock for Q1, so we can assume something between 51.7M and 51.8M and VGC would be 400~500K off. However, we could have a higher difference if Nintendo overshipped the New 3DS in the west, something that's reasonable. Either way, less than the OP suggests.



Bet with jetforcejiminy: PS4 will pass the Wii lifetime numbers.

fory77 on 07 May 2015
chapset said:
The 360 is undertracked

And so is the 2600...

ioi hates american consoles.

wii need a revolution against his opression!



Soundwave on 07 May 2015
Yakuzaice said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

Yeah, seem correct imo... so, we can say that the 2015 sales are (as for now) around correct, but in the first 4 years, 3DS is overtracked by 1.5m to 2.0m

2015 sales are definitely not correct, I'll just copy my post from the other thread.

A good portion of the 3DS overtracking is from before this quarter, but there was definitely overtracking this year as well.  At the end of 2014 VGC had the 3DS at 50.104m (Jan 3).  Shipments were at 50.41m (Dec 31).  So while that number is probably overtracked, VGC still showed 300k+ on shelves.  Now, 3 months later VGC has the 3DS at 52.15m (Mar 28) versus 52.06m shipped (Mar 31).  So some significant overtracking definitely occured over the three months.


I think VGChartz overtracked the New 3DS pretty hard in NA/Europe, aside from the good launch week(s), I'd say 3DS sales have slowed considerably since then to regular levels. 



chapset on 07 May 2015
Ryng_Tolu said:
chapset said:
The 360 is undertracked

And why you write this in a 3DS thread? o.O

People like you don't like hearing the truth but AS AN AMERICAN FROM CANADA I SHALL NEVEEEEEEEEEEEEER BE SILENCEEEEEEEED GOD BLESS AMERICA. Also leave ioi alone he is building something huge. Be patient my child



Bet reminder: I bet with Tboned51 that Splatoon won't reach the 1 million shipped mark by the end of 2015. I win if he loses and I lose if I lost.