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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - 3DS overtracked. ioi...

Ryng on 07 May 2015

Well, considering that is pretty confirmed that 3DS is overtracked by minimum 1 million, i show you why.

The Japan numbers are correct, and we all know...

For the US numbers, easy, we have VGChartz VS NPD.

2011
NPD: 4.08m
VGC: 4.10m

Pretty good track.

 

2012
NPD: 3.65m
VGC: 3.61m

Looks like is undertracked this year (in the US)

 

2013
NPD: 3.83m
VGC: 4.04m

~200,000 overtracked...

 

2014
NPD: 2.54m
VGC: 2.65m

another ~100,000 overtracked...

 

2015
NPD: 734k in 13 week
VGC: 674k in 12 week

2015 seem ok.

 

2011 to 2015, we have 3DS overtracked by ~300,000 in the US.

 

 

But as we all know, the problem IS NOT the US... is the Europe.

We know that the Nintendo console in the US sell more than in Europe, that is fact. so, if we see the YOY sales US VS EU...

 

2011
NPD US: 4.08m
VGC EU: 3.6m

Seem correct... a 10% difference is probabily what is the 3DS sales US / EU.

 

2012
NPD US: 3.65m
VGC EU: 3.82m

What the fuck? 3DS in Europe above than US? No, just no! at least ~170,000 overtracked (but is more...)

 

2013
NPD US: 3.83m
VGC EU: 4.10m

Again? this time 270,000 in Europe more than the official US sales, so, at least ~270,000 overtracked...

 

2014
NPD US: 2.54m
VGC EU: 3.00m

Seem that the overtracked is increase all year... o.O this time probabily ~460,000 in Europe...

 

Seem that 2014+2013+2012 3DS is overtracked in Europe by att least ~900,000... +1 million seem correct.

 

So, we have 2011 to 2014 3DS over by 300,000 in the US, and by +1,000,000 in Europe.

Adding NA / RW , maybe +1,500,000 overtracked?

 

Yeah, seem correct imo... so, we can say that the 2015 sales are (as for now) around correct, but in the first 4 years, 3DS is overtracked by 1.5m to 2.0m


 

WHAT DO YOU THINK?



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Yakuzaice on 07 May 2015
Ryng_Tolu said:

Yeah, seem correct imo... so, we can say that the 2015 sales are (as for now) around correct, but in the first 4 years, 3DS is overtracked by 1.5m to 2.0m

2015 sales are definitely not correct, I'll just copy my post from the other thread.

A good portion of the 3DS overtracking is from before this quarter, but there was definitely overtracking this year as well.  At the end of 2014 VGC had the 3DS at 50.104m (Jan 3).  Shipments were at 50.41m (Dec 31).  So while that number is probably overtracked, VGC still showed 300k+ on shelves.  Now, 3 months later VGC has the 3DS at 52.15m (Mar 28) versus 52.06m shipped (Mar 31).  So some significant overtracking definitely occured over the three months.



Pavolink on 07 May 2015

Nintendo confirmed today 52M 3DS shipped until March 31th. VGC has at 52 on week ending March 21th...so...



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theprof00 on 07 May 2015
RolStoppable said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

WHAT DO YOU THINK?

I think you should ask sorry for your recently anti-Nintendo fanboy conduct.

Just for anyone paying attention, Rol here is saying anti (nintendo fanboy) as in, against nintendo fanboys.

If he were calling ryng a fanboy, he would've said "[ryng] should apologize for his anti-nintendo, fanboy conduct".



Ryng on 07 May 2015
Yakuzaice said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

Yeah, seem correct imo... so, we can say that the 2015 sales are (as for now) around correct, but in the first 4 years, 3DS is overtracked by 1.5m to 2.0m

2015 sales are definitely not correct, I'll just copy my post from the other thread.

A good portion of the 3DS overtracking is from before this quarter, but there was definitely overtracking this year as well.  At the end of 2014 VGC had the 3DS at 50.104m (Jan 3).  Shipments were at 50.41m (Dec 31).  So while that number is probably overtracked, VGC still showed 300k+ on shelves.  Now, 3 months later VGC has the 3DS at 52.15m (Mar 28) versus 52.06m shipped (Mar 31).  So some significant overtracking definitely occured over the three months.

Only because 3DS sell more than what Nintendo shipped, that don't mean is overtracked.

Look PS3, PSVita, XBO, PS4... all this console have sold more than what have shipped according to VGChartz.

So, ALL cnosole are overtracked? Just for say, one time Nintendo have ship 80,000 GC in a quarter of 2003, and it have sold 120,000 just in a month in the US.

 

Media Create and NPD have 3DS at ~1.35 million Jan to March.

VGChartz have 3DS at ~2 million so far... adding anothe 100,000 because the next week, 3DS will be at ~2.1 million.

750,000 Europe + North America withouth US + Rest of world seem correct, don't forget that N3DS have 160,000 the week ending 14 February.



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torok on 07 May 2015

It's overtracked, but I disagree that's "massive". It sold 52M on VGC. 2M is less than 5% of error. Not bad, actually.



Bet with jetforcejiminy: PS4 will pass the Wii lifetime numbers.

Ryng on 07 May 2015
Ka-pi96 said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

We know that the Nintendo console in the US sell more than in Europe, that is fact.

Not a fact. Sure maybe Nintendo consoles have sold more in the US than Europe in the past, but that guarantees nothing. There is absolutely no guarantee that is still the case or will continue to be in the future.

You right that is not a fact, but at this point very unlucky 3DS in EU above in the US, you don't think? :D



Yakuzaice on 07 May 2015
Ryng_Tolu said:

Only because 3DS sell more than what Nintendo shipped, that don't mean is overtracked.

Look PS3, PSVita, XBO, PS4... all this console have sold more than what have shipped according to VGChartz.

So, ALL cnosole are overtracked? Just for say, one time Nintendo have ship 80,000 GC in a quarter of 2003, and it have sold 120,000 just in a month in the US.

 

Media Create and NPD have 3DS at ~1.35 million Jan to March.

VGChartz have 3DS at ~2 million so far... adding anothe 100,000 because the next week, 3DS will be at ~2.1 million.

750,000 Europe + North America withouth US + Rest of world seem correct, don't forget that N3DS have 160,000 the week ending 14 February.

The difference is that the 3DS showed a much larger gap between shipped and sold all while launching a new model in two territories.  The 3DS showed a 400k drop in units at retail if the VGC numbers are correct.  The PS3 would be ~140k, Vita ~80k, XBO seems to have sales lower than shipped for the quarter, and the PS4 is the only one that gets close at ~320k.

The Japanese shipment was quite low this quarter though, so it is possible that stock was drawn down that much.  It would depend on European numbers.



TheGoldenBoy on 07 May 2015
Pavolink said:
Nintendo confirmed today 52M 3DS shipped until March 31th. VGC has at 52 on week ending March 21th...so...

It's 52.2 million as of March 28th.



Yakuzaice on 07 May 2015
torok said:
It's overtracked, but I disagree that's "massive". It sold 52M on VGC. 2M is less than 5% of error. Not bad, actually.

It's misleading to base the error on the overall number when you get an update every three months.  If I predict zero 3DS units shipped next quarter, and it actually ships 1m, is that a good prediction?  I would only be off by a couple percent on the lifetime number.

Now if ioi had been on a deserted island with no access to the outside world for the last five years, and had 52m scratched onto a coconut.  That would be impressive.