@NJ5

Honestly I didn't expect a single taker on the bet. The challenge is actually a way of humiliating the Sony trolls, and taking away their ability to post within the thread. I basically back handed them, and the best they are going to muster is hang back in the corner and be upset. They don't believe the propaganda they spew so unless they commit to a losing proposition they have gagged themselves.

Metal Gear Solid is kind of ( notice - KIND OF ) a niche game in Japan. Niche games are irrelevant to the platform's userbase, i.e. you are a Yu-Gi-Oh! fan and it's a Nintendo DS exclusive, you'll get it no matter what.

In conclusion, I think MGS4 will eventually reach the previous installment's sales on PS2 and slightly surpass them for a number of reasons :

1) Lack of competition ( by the time MGS3 launched, competition was fierce on PS2 )

2) PS3 userbase is more " hardcore " than PS2's.

Won't make it to 1million though. I'd be seriously amazed if it did. 

MGS has a pretty strong fanbase. I expect it to sell pretty close to the same figures as the previous games - 750k-850k. This implies they should ship 1m to Japanese stores pretty easily.

It should do 450k-500k week#1 - anything less will be a real disappointment.

I know, and it obviously worked ;)

You're very wrong. Minna no Golf 3 was the 7th best sold PS2 game, WE 6 #8, Dynasty Warriors 4 #9. These all were a lot higher than the MGS games (# 23 and 24).

These 3 have sequels on PS3. If a series in the top 10 of the PS2 is not AAA then what is?!?

I think that's possible. Especially lifetime sales.

It also depends on how long they bundle MGS4 with the ps3. A ton of those copies will be sold as a bundle--especially over the holidays if they keep it bundled that long.

I think a lot of people are overestimating MGS4 sales. Come on, just HOW MANY games have come and gone that were supposed to be the 'turning point' for PS3. I'm not saying MGS'll bomb, I'm sure it'll do good. Just not as good as tons of people seem to be expecting.

Well worst case we will see 600k , my expectations are ~ 800k , and if everything goes perfectly , and the game has long legs , than we may see 1000k :D

Lifetime maybe. But it will take a great expansion in the number of consoles sold. At least it has an increasing sales curve for each installment (unless the FF series or GT series).

Mike from Morgantown

I just can't see MGS4 selling million in Japan. Sony was dominant in Japan with both the PS1 and PS2 no other game in the franchise has been able to reach this number. MGS4 is handicapped by the smaller PS4 user base. Not only that, each big release for the PS3 comes out and sells well the first week then drops like a rock.

If Japan were like the Europe and the US, places were the PS3's sales have risen and plateaued at a higher average weekly level, I could see the logic behind this expectation. That isn't the case however. PS3 sales spiked when DMC4 released and promptly plummeted. I see the exact same thing playing out with MGS4. Why? Because it happened with every other major PS3 release in Japan.