Nice i always enjoy your images.

 Brawl had aproximately 16% penetration on a 5.2m install base first week and has since increased that to an aprox 26% penetration on a 5.5m install base.

The weekly sales of Brawl in Japan will stabalize over the the next few weeks and we will be able to see what kind of legs and final penetration number it will hit.  Its also worth noting that hardcore games tending to have front-loaded sales means that their penetration is likely to peak within the first few months but then it can potentially drop as sales of the game are outpaced by the console.

@topic, 

With the PS3 sitting just shy of a 2m install base right now it is likely that given current sales and a sales increase as launch approaches it will be around 2.2m installed assuming a June 12th launch.  Which if it did similar numbers to Brawl in terms of penetration would equate to a 352k launch and after 5 weeks on the market hitting around 624k.  If it manages those numbers it would very doable for it to finish with Lifetime numbers above 1m but not a gaurantee.

I think MGS4's ability to do Brawl like numbers in Japan is also a fairly unproven concept considering the Series history in Japan on a much large install base show it consistently 150-200k shy of the 1m mark. 

To be honest the fact that they have set this goal for themselves is probably the best reason to believe they can meet it.  I have no doubt they will make a real effort to do so and with the previews for the game being fairly positive thus far they very well might pull it off...but they are far from a shoe in. 

Do we even know that our numbers for japan are right. Did we get them from an official source or from wiki or some other place. The PS2 has sold over 1.3bil games, we don't have that many sales listed on this site.

Any idea if the MGS for bundle is limited or not?

First day will be around 850k to 1 million.... wait and see...

Konami wants a million sale in japan, I want a toilet made of soldi gold but we cant all have what we want can we.

I think it will sell about 300-350k in its first week and end with about 750-850k, i just cant see it selling 1mill in japan.

It will sell very well in the u.s and even better in Europe.

@ mesoteto
Damn, that was funny! You did a nice job on them.

ps2 sold 21 million in japan and no mgs sold a million. it would be impressive that mgs4 sold a million with 2 million userbase. go hardcores

 Do you mean WorldWide?  Cause first day of this in Japan would have a next to nil chance of happening.