Even if it's shipped, congrats to Sony for the success of their console. Hopefully the train won't stop.

I just wish for some NPD numbers to see who's where.

Yea I figured that out now but a few hours ago I just read the article on my way out the door. Or should I say I misread the article. Should have stopped to think about it.

Numbers do sound accurate.

Here's my brief analysis on the PS4's sold-through numbers:

At the beginning of this year, Sony confirmed that the PS4 sold 18.5 million units up to January 4. Last month, Sony announced that they sold 20.2 million PS4's up to March 1. After digging up the NPD and Media Create numbers, here's the distribution of sales:

US = 534K
Japan = 210K
ROTW (i.e. Europe, Asia/Pacific, Middle East, etc.) = 956K

We know that for the first quarter of calendar 2015, the PS4 sold 870K in the US and 370K in Japan. If we assume the sales ratio between the US and ROTW remained the same, then the PS4 would have sold 1.558m ROTW, bringing Q1 CY2015 sales to ~2.8m, not including China. That brings cumulative worldwide sold-through numbers to 21.3m + whatever the PS4 sold in China.

Oooh I've been waiting to see Sony's projections for this FY. So they are projecting ~16 million shipped for this FY, which is ~2 million more than the FY just gone. PS4 is running at about 20% down YoY to the end of March I hear. Until there's a price cut there's no reason to think PS4 won't stay about 20% down for the first part of this FY.

So without a price cut one would expect PS4 to ship 11-12 million for the FY. But they are projecting 16 million which is about 15% YoY growth. It is also 33% more than what we could expect with no price cut. 16 million shipped is not an astronomical increase, even considering they will be turning around a start that is down YoY.  So despite earlier saying I think they will cut by $100, I think a 16 million shipped projection suggest more like a $50 cut, with a decent number of holiday goodies.

I also think their projections would have been a bit higher if Uncharted 4 was on track to release this year.

I was actually looking for a 20% YoY increase with shipments of 17 million+. That still may happen of course, but right now Sony's projections are lower than I was expecting. PS4 achieving a 20 million year is looking slightly shaky unless it beats Sony's projections for this year and there is a second $50 price cut in 2016.

35 million sell through by the end of 2015 sounds pretty close to being right if sales follow projections. I might have highballed that too by estimating 36 million (or more, I can't remember, someone should resurrect that thread where people gave PS4 2015 estimates).

I think Sony is trying to play it safe with its projections to make sure PS4 sales do not come in less than what they project. So there is a reasonable chance that shipments and sales will be higher when we get to this point in 2016.

So, right now PS4 has got the 50% Market Share, good job Sony.

A price cut by the end of Oct and exclusive ADs, Contents, and a far better version of COD : Black Ops3 is the ony thing Sony might think about for the Holiday season.

While obviously shipped not sold to customers. I would question 900k sitting on shelves. I think PS4 is undertracked, though of course I couldn't determine by how much.

Well done Sony 

Coming for that 50% market share (if they don't have it already)

It's easy over 50% right now, it's 1st of May and VGC figures only show March 28th...regardless if VGC undertracked or not.

Still hard to understand how medias confusing with financial report numbers.
Isn't this kind of report happen every 3 months.

I agree with those that are suggesting Sony forecast is an indication of a possible price drop. Either that or they have an unannounced game that will sell many PS4s.