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Forums - Nintendo - Is It Possible for 3DS to Reach 75mil Lifetime?

I agree 75M



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No. I'm willing to bet it'll end at 69M.



It's possible. Personally, I think it'll end up hitting 80m. The only way I see it not hitting those sales is if NX launches later next year and the support for the 3DS drops.

If the NX launches in 2017 and the 3DS is supported at least until the end of 2017, I can see it doing 75m+.

By the end of 2014 = 50m
2015 = currently around 2m by the end of March ~ at least 10m by year's end
2016 = around 8m
2017 = around 6m
Rest of its life = at least 3m
Total = 77m



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

tbone51 said:

Not saying it'll hit 75mil, but dont forget hitting next year will be at the earliest 2016 holiday. 50.4mil sold by years end, which means it'll ship for at least 3 more years...

Worst case

2015  6mil (N3ds launched in the west, even if it declined overall shouldnt completely drop)

2016  4mil (3DS Successor releases)     

2017  1mil

2018   200k-400k  Discontinued....

62mil imo is the worst case scenario...

 

I think a better estimate is 

2015  8.5mil

2016  5.5mil

2017  2.5mil

2018  1mil

About 68mil 

2015: 12,500,000

2016: 8,000,000

2017: 5,000,000

2018: 2,500,000

Another millions after that...



Ryng_Tolu said:
tbone51 said:

2015: 12,500,000

2016: 8,000,000

2017: 5,000,000

2018: 2,500,000

Another millions after that...


Your numbers are too high, it might be up YoY now, but 3DS in japan is looking at 2mil-2.25mil Sold this year, Even if US+Europe is up YoY, it wont be close unless some miraculous exclusive comes into the holidays for N3ds.

You said about 3mil Sold US (though i think 2.2mil is a goos estimate), so about 4mil Shipped there. Europe is less so lets say 3mil shipped there. 7mil So far and though Japan has about 2mil sold, the shipped number will be about of that(2mil) or less since japan had N3ds shipped last year.

With rest of the world an optimistic look is already 10mil, but hey i hope it happens!



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LipeJJ said:
2015 = currently around 2m by the end of March ~ at least 10m by year's end

3DS have sold 732,000 in the US (810,000 in NA) and 500,000 in Japan.

TOT: +1,300,000.

Assuming that in Europe 3DS sell just 5/10 % less OR more than in the US, probabily 700,000/750,000 in Europe.

With the rest of world, i think that 3DS is above 2,000,000 by end of March... 2,100,000 to 2,300,000...



Ryng_Tolu said:
LipeJJ said:
2015 = currently around 2m by the end of March ~ at least 10m by year's end

3DS have sold 732,000 in the US (810,000 in NA) and 500,000 in Japan.

TOT: +1,300,000.

Assuming that in Europe 3DS sell just 5/10 % less OR more than in the US, probabily 700,000/750,000 in Europe.

With the rest of world, i think that 3DS is above 2,000,000 by end of March... 2,100,000 to 2,300,000...


Yes, I agree, that's why I said "around 2m" (meaning it could be a little higher xD). I also agree with your LT prediction you just wrote in the post above.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

tbone51 said:

 

Is It Possible for 3DS to Reach 75mil Lifetime? (Shipmemt+Sold)

 

HELL i'll add digital too....

 

Could it hit 75mil lifetime? Its over 50mil by 2014, most likely close to 52mil by end of March.......

If you add shipment and sold, then it is already above 100M

In seriousness, I think 75M can happen, but probably after the successor was released. It will probably have 2015 around 9-10 million again, 2016 another 7M, then it is at 67. After that it will go slowly but finally barely reach 75M.



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Ya, been predicting it for a while



tbone51 said:
Captain_Tom said:
No.


Curious whats your estimate?

 

I think it'll be short.. as of now 68mil-72mil


Let me check.... Well yeah by the charts I am guessing 65-70m tops so I agree with you.  I just really think sales are about to start falling off a cliff next year.