Dont think so. Hard to beat MK8/smash combo.

Until we get some solid release dates, this is all hot air.

So why didn't BLOPS2 do even 200k? 

It also had COD: Ghosts before the PS4/X1. 

It would have had to have been a large, noticable upgrade too. Nobody's buying a $350 platform for a very marginally better version in a handful of areas. 

Don't you remember? There was this whole 'I'll wait until the PS4 happens' thing. But if they found a way to make GTA5 the best version when it launched, it would have been something different. As long as they got the most out of the system to do it.

Besides Black Ops 2 on Wii U did almost 300k.

Yet XB1 multiplats that are worse than the PS4 version still sell very well, no excuses there. It's only on Nintendo systems where excuses need to be made for why no third party game (not a single one) has sold really fantastic. 

Nintendo's issue is they're not relevant to the demographics that buy games like COD and GTA to begin with. They haven't been for a long time. 

XBox is relevant to that audience though that's why it doesn't really matter that much if COD on XB1 isn't as good as the PS4 version, it will still sell in the millions whereas the Wii U versions sold a very small amount by comparison. 

When that crappy COD Vita game outsells both BLOPS2 and Ghosts on the Wii U ... something is wrong. 

To be fair there are ports that are on the PS4 that run better on other systems too. Its not like the PS4 is the end all for all 3rd party ports.

Nintendo's issue is that they are Nintendo. They have to fight their own image of being kiddy even though they have some of the more core gaming experiences. In spite of some of the best games in years they are still being seen as kiddie by the majority of the 'core' gamers. Perception is their worst enemy these days.

The Wii U version of BLOPs and Ghosts were good and if there is a port for Wii U I'm sure that BLOPs3 will be just as great. Believe it or not there is a community on BLOPs2 and they play it pretty religiously. And looking back on the first 18 months of the PS4s life I'm sure that there would have been plenty more people who would have chosen Wii U and waited on the twins.

I don't think so. I don't doubt that WiiU has a great lineup of games for the second half of the year. But Mario Kart and Smash > all of the games they will release this year. I'm talking about sales. Mario Kart and Smash are the most powerful Nintendo franchises. WiiU this year needs a system seller if Nintendo wants to do better than last year. 

If they don't announce anything new for the system for the holiday's it's going to have terrible holiday. Quite possibly the worst holiday for a main Nintendo console ever.

However i expect Nintendo to announce a price cut at the very least, and hopefully one or two more games.

To be honest though it was really only MK8 that caused a really noticable bump for the Wii U. 

Smash bump was OK, but nothing monstrous. November NPD was so-so for Wii U, December was up noticably Y-o-Y but that was it. 

A price drop to $249.99 at some point this year probably cancels out the MK8 bump from last year.

The way I see it, the Wii U is like a turtle running a race ... it's going to plod generally to the same pace, so 3.3 mill or so this year shouldn't be that hard to reach with a $50 drop. 

To be honest too I think Mario Maker is a more mainstream appealling product than even Zelda is. After MK8/Smash/NSMBU and maybe 3D World I could see Mario Maker ending up as the 5th best selling Wii U title for its life time. 

I definitely see potential in Mario Maker, it all depends in how Nintendo will market the game (and we know that Nintendo is not very good at marketing). But I will be very surprised if Mario Maker pushes the WiiU a lot. Maybe a Mario Maker + WiiU bundle (250$) could do the trick, but, as you say, it will only allow the WiiU to keep selling... bad. I don't really know if the price drop will be worth it, maybe they will stick to its actual prize and milk the profits as much as they can before they move on to their next hardware.