i do not think FFXIII will make 10 million and GTA4 will make 10 million but on both combined
tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"
| daactualfact said: MGS4 won't hit 10 million at all. The previous games never hit 10 million. Don't expect this to happen this time around. |
If it was just MGS4 then it wouldn't. However, because it's going to be a major pack in bundle, you can't simply go by previous numbers. Ok, given that the PS3 barely sold over 10m total in over a year, it's highly unlikely... but it still has a better chance than most of the others mentioned for PS3....
most likely nothing on the ps3 will hit 10 million ever, let alone by the end of '09.
Halo most likely will, and COD4 on 360 alone probably will and easily will by combining the two systems.
gta4 will combined for both systems but definitely not on ps3 alone and probably not on 360 alone.
wiiplay don't count cuz it wouldn't sell anything without the controller. wii sports has almost 3 million in japan alone and right now even if it wasn't bundled in the rest of the world would most likely already be above 10 million since tons of people got the wii specifically because of wii sports. but since you can't actually prove that its up to opinion as to whether you count it or not, but obviously it would be as a stand alone game worldwide.
also on wiifit, brawl, and mario kart all will definitely hit 10 mil by the end of '09. wiifit and brawl should be over 8 million by the end of '08 with mario kart playing catching because of a later release. and smg will since it should also be over 8 mil by the end of this year.
end of '08 predictions: wii - 43 million, 360 - 25 million, ps3 - 20 million
Games I've beat recently: Super Mario Galaxy, Knights of the Old Republic, Shadow of the Collossus
Proud owner of wii, gamecube, xbox, ps2, dreamcast, n64, snes, genesis, 3DO, nes, atari, intellivision, unisonic tournament 2000, and gameboy
10 million By the end of 2009?
Just Misses = 6.5 million+ but below 10 million by the end of 2009
Wii: Wii Fit, Brawl, Wii Sports, Wii Play
Just Misses: Mario Kart, Galaxy, Wii Music, Animal Crossing
PS3: Nothing
Just Misses: GTAIV, Gran Turismo 5
Xbox 360: Halo 3
Just Misses: GTAIV, Call of Duty 4
DS: Nintendogs, Mario Kart DS, Pokemon Diamond/Pearl, New Super Mario Brothers, Animal Crossing, Brain Training, Brain Training 2, Pokemon Next/Pokemon Next Alternate
Just Misses: Dragon Quest IX
PSP: Nothing
Just Misses: Nothing
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
| TheSource said: 10 million By the end of 2009?
Just Misses = 6.5 million+ but below 10 million by the end of 2009 DS: Nintendogs, Mario Kart DS, Pokemon Diamond/Pearl, New Super Mario Brothers, Animal Crossing, Brain Training, Brain Training 2, Pokemon Next/Pokemon Next Alternate Just Misses: Dragon Quest IX |
Man Wii Play and Wii Sports. It is certainly not at all problematic classifying those games as 10 mil+ sellers alongside any other game non-bundled, and non-controller containing game...
We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls. The only thing that really worried me was the ether. There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke
It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...." Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson
| johnsobas said: So looking into it further no final fantasy has ever sold 10 million, I don't see that starting now. gt and gt3 sold 10 million, but they were on much more successful consoles with less competition in the genre. Both gt and gt3 were the first on their respective consoles. It might make it, no guarantee. GTA4 will not make it to 10 million on 1 console, GTA never sold more than 15 million, and I don't expect this one to be as successful as that and I also expect sales to be split somewhere around 60/40 or 50/50. Combined I would say it's pretty close to a lock. The only wii game on there that is pretty sure to make 10 million is Wii Fit. I'm not sure how successful it will be in America and Europe, but in Japan it looks like it is heading toward 5 million or more. Brawl and Mario Kart are sketchy, they would have to be much bigger successes than their previous games, but it's possible with a dominant performance by Nintendo. |
Good points, and well made. I agree.
Nintendo Network ID: Cheebee 3DS Code: 2320 - 6113 - 9046
Wii will have 2 certainly - Sports/Play and 2 possibly - SSBB/MK
Xbox 360 - Halo 3
PS3 - ???
GTA IV may make it but it will be both platforms combined.
That my two cents.
Fastrabbit09 said:
what kind of estimates are u coming up with? currently wii sports sells at a 53% attach rate, so it will take less than 20 million wiis to hit 10 million wii sports sold
|
It's attachment rate is slowly going down. Take a look at Japan's numbers for the last week of February. Wii Sports sold ~15,992 units while ~65,116 Wiis were sold. That gives a 24.6% attachment rate (for the Wiis sold that week). The game is 7,157,966 away from 10,000,000 and I used to assumption that the game's weekly attachment rate will slowly go down over the years.
thesource, i think u are underestimating mario kart
it's coming out in April for all 3 territories, so barely has a time-on-market disadvantage...if brawl sells 10+mil by 2009, then so should kart as i'd expect kart to outsell brawl as hardcore still get it but also more casuals will get kart than will get brawl
Bets:Missed by 420k I bet leo-j vg$500 that wii will sell 31 million by 7/31/08. Sorry, I don't think he has enough vg$ to make it with all of u that wish you could. Hit, with room to spare I bet kingofwale a 1-week ban that wii Americas ltd sales>360 Americas ltd sales as of the numbers for week ending 7/05/08 (using vgchartz homepage #s)
Predictions:
Wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07 CHECKWii will sell 45mil+ WW by 12/31/08Wii will surpass PS2 sales WW by 11/17/11 (5yr anniversary)Wii Fit will hit 12mil sales in 2009MKWii+SSBB+Wii Fit+SMG > 50 mil sales by 2010 > gta4+mgs+gt5+ff13+haze+lbp
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