By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Does Zelda U Have a Chance At 5Mil+ Lifetime WW? (Or Close To It)

Materia-Blade on 01 March 2015
Soundwave said:

My metric ... take whatever some Nintendo fans predict for sales and chop a generous 30%-40% or so off that number to get what will happen in reality.

There's always gross overinflation of sales expectations of Nintendo games here I think even VGC gets caught up in it, that's why the Wii U and 3DS are often times overtracked big time.

It's coming fairly late in the Wii U life cycle too, that will limit its sales potential. Zelda: WW (GCN), Zelda: TP (Wii), Zelda: OoT (N64), Zelda: LttP (SNES) were already out in the launch alligned time frame for their platforms by now. That art style is not going to help it sell either, sorry, but the more cartoony styled Zelda games just don't sell and particularily in the modern marketplace ... good luck with that (not saying I approve of that POV, but that's just the reality of the market). 

Even MS had big problems selling something like Sunset Overdrive, which is a third person shooter that had a fairly large marketing campaign behind it, I think the more cartoony art style hurt it. Mario Kart can get away with it because its Mario, but if you're making a "serious" action-adventure game, it's a detriment. 

Funny for you tu say that when more often than not, wii u titles are selling more than people's predictions.

Oh, and 3 years into the console's life is not late.



Around the Network
Soundwave on 01 March 2015
Materia-Blade said:
Soundwave said:

My metric ... take whatever some Nintendo fans predict for sales and chop a generous 30%-40% or so off that number to get what will happen in reality.

There's always gross overinflation of sales expectations of Nintendo games here I think even VGC gets caught up in it, that's why the Wii U and 3DS are often times overtracked big time.

It's coming fairly late in the Wii U life cycle too, that will limit its sales potential. Zelda: WW (GCN), Zelda: TP (Wii), Zelda: OoT (N64), Zelda: LttP (SNES) were already out in the launch alligned time frame for their platforms by now. That art style is not going to help it sell either, sorry, but the more cartoony styled Zelda games just don't sell and particularily in the modern marketplace ... good luck with that (not saying I approve of that POV, but that's just the reality of the market). 

Even MS had big problems selling something like Sunset Overdrive, which is a third person shooter that had a fairly large marketing campaign behind it, I think the more cartoony art style hurt it. Mario Kart can get away with it because its Mario, but if you're making a "serious" action-adventure game, it's a detriment. 

Funny for you tu say that when more often than not, wii u titles are selling more than people's predictions.

Oh, and 3 years into the console's life is not late.


Not really. Most people just quietly forget or don't mention some of the more outrageous predictions. 

On the Nintendo side of the board many people were still predicting 30-40 million Wii Us not even that long ago, that went quiet real fast.

Three years into a life cycle is less time for the new Zelda to sell than any of the other Zeldas I listed, so it is coming later. Not that I really think that would make a huge difference. 

The other problem for Zelda U is I don't see any better than 400k in Japan, it's not that huge in Europe either. It ain't selling 3 million alone in North America. 5 mill ain't happening. 



Materia-Blade on 01 March 2015
Soundwave said:
Materia-Blade said:

Funny for you tu say that when more often than not, wii u titles are selling more than people's predictions.

Oh, and 3 years into the console's life is not late.


Not really. Most people just quietly forget or don't mention some of the more outrageous predictions. 

On the Nintendo side of the board many people were still predicting 30-40 million Wii Us not even that long ago, that went quiet real fast.

Three years into a life cycle is less time for the new Zelda to sell than any of the other Zeldas I listed, so it is coming later. Not that I really think that would make a huge difference. 

The other problem for Zelda U is I don't see any better than 400k in Japan, it's not that huge in Europe either. It ain't selling 3 million alone in North America. 5 mill ain't happening. 

Feel free to think that but it won't happen. how many units you think it will sell? 3m?



binary solo on 01 March 2015
Samus Aran said:
contestgamer said:
binary solo said:

I dunno. Obviously you frequent websites and forums related to Nintendo much more than I do. But not being a member of the Nintendo inner circle of fans I am not perceiving  a huge amount of hype. So the hype possibly is only within the Nintendo fanbase, which might not be enough to get it to 5 million.

Zelda U will probably need to be received almost as well as OOT to hit 5 million on the sort of install base Wii U is looking to achieve. And of course Zelda U could achieve that sort of acclaim. The Wii U is a suffiently powerful machine that Nintendo can do things with Zelda that it has never done before, and I'm sure they will make excellent use of the gamepad. It's still an up hill battle to 5 million though.

 

"Zelda U will probably need to be received almost as well as OOT to hit 5 million on the sort of install base Wii U is looking to achieve. And of course Zelda U could achieve that sort of acclaim."

What would make you believe that a franchise in decline will have a hit game that is recieved as well as the game that is widely considered the greatest of all time even today?

OoT is the most overrated game of all time.

I certianly agree with that. Well I dunno about all time, but I personally didn' like OOT all that muc, I never bothered to finish it, but that might be bcause I tried to play it on 3DS and did not enjoy the experience. Perhaps on a regular TV using regular controller it might be a better experience. But is remains a critical darling, and a favourite among the masses, pretty much always hitting the top 10 best 100 games of all time lists.

The reason I say Zelda U could be received as well as OOT (whether or not you personally agree with OOT's critical and popular acclaim, the fact is it has atttained legendary status) is because of the tech that is available for this game. People say specs don't matter, and to a large degree this is true when talking about within generation competition. But when it comes to generational improvements within a game company specs matter a great deal, as better specs provide opportunity for expanded creative horizons. With Wii U being a huge leap above Wii technologically there is a great deal of potential for Zelda U, if the minds behind Zelda U remain fresh and creatively energised. 



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

S.Peelman on 02 March 2015

Yes, the series doesn't seem too much dependent on install-base like say a Mario Kart, but moreso on good reception and overal hype. Both of which haven't been in short supply. The series continues to show a strong, loyal and consistant fanbase as well. So far, all primary (primary, so the big ones) mainline Zelda games sold 5m on average. I'd say it's a realistic goal.



Around the Network
Soundwave on 02 March 2015
Materia-Blade said:
Soundwave said:


Not really. Most people just quietly forget or don't mention some of the more outrageous predictions. 

On the Nintendo side of the board many people were still predicting 30-40 million Wii Us not even that long ago, that went quiet real fast.

Three years into a life cycle is less time for the new Zelda to sell than any of the other Zeldas I listed, so it is coming later. Not that I really think that would make a huge difference. 

The other problem for Zelda U is I don't see any better than 400k in Japan, it's not that huge in Europe either. It ain't selling 3 million alone in North America. 5 mill ain't happening. 

Feel free to think that but it won't happen. how many units you think it will sell? 3m?


I'd say around 3.25 mill. Maybe a little less, maybe a bit more. 400k in Japan, 1 mill in Europe, the rest in North America. Honestly that might be generous too. 



fedfed on 02 March 2015

So when is this game going to be released?

if not Xmas time than 4 mil LT!



Switch!!!

Wyrdness on 02 March 2015
fedfed said:
So when is this game going to be released?

if not Xmas time than 4 mil LT!


I think it's almost certain to be around November, as  the console games for the past installments have been around then.



Dr.Vita on 02 March 2015

Nope, Mario Kart 8 and Super Smash Bros. hasn't reached 5M and both are bigger than Zelda. I can Zelda doing something around 4M lifetime.




Dr.Vita talks about Playstation Vita in 2016!
Playstation Vita Media Create Sales (2014 vs 2015 vs 2016)
Playstation Vita Japan Retail Software Sales (2013 vs 2014 vs 2015 + 2015 LTD Edition)
Prediction: Nothing will outsell PSP anymore (except Playstation home consoles)

Samus Aran on 02 March 2015
Dr.Vita said:
Nope, Mario Kart 8 and Super Smash Bros. hasn't reached 5M and both are bigger than Zelda. I can Zelda doing something around 4M lifetime.

Lol, they only released last year. They easily will reach 5M. MK8 is tracking ahead of MK: DD on a smaller install base. You also can't ignore that SSB4 also released on the 3DS (and shipped 6.2 million units by the end of 2014).

WW sold 4.60M.