XCX looks amazing and promissing.
But wii U install base is just 1/10 from wii's.

Ok, wii U owners are a niche public that would buy core games more than wii owners.
But XCX doesnt have mario or link on the game, if even DK struggled to reach 1 million, i dont think XBX will.

XC3D is very hard to say. being exclusive to new hardware make difficult to spread. But i can see this game getting the same audience as monster hunter, a multimillion seller on handhelds.

XCX > XBC 3D > XBC

Between being released in the west late, discontinued early, and Shulk in Smash Bros increasing the Xenoblade series's popularity I doubt either XCX or XBC 3D won't manage to pass the original. And although it may seem that 3D has the install base advantage since it's on the New 3DS which the Wii U has a bigger install base than it (For however long that may last.)

Probably XBC > XCX > XBC 3D

Mainly because install base for Wii > Wii U
XBC 3D is exclusive to the n3DS so people who have it on the Wii may not want a ported version of it. The overall hype for XCX > XBC 3D as well so I think that XCX should be able to beat XBC 3D

XCX>XC3D>XC

I think the N3DS port will get good sales for three main reasons. One, it's the only N3DS exclusive currently announced and a lot of people who own a N3DS will likely be interested in a game that pushes the system. Two, loyal XC fans who have a N3DS will likely purchase it. Three, the game has a lot of positivity from reviews and word of mouth as well as heightened exposure from Smash Bros. I think to can combine to bring in at least 1mil sales.

However, Xenoblade Chronicles X has a number of things going for it the original just doesn't. Most obvious is that it is a lot better looking, which goes a long way in promotion. Another is that, as a whole, it's much more in line with the mainstream. It's open world obviously. It has online co-op. The aesthetic is much more suited to mainstream marketing while still being distinct. And of course, this game has much more backing from Nintendo as a whole in the west. It has been in the spotlight a lot more than the first game ever was. And all things point to a much better handling of distribution as well as proper promotion. And another thing is timing. The first game launched on a console with 100mil users, yes, but during a time when the console was viewed as near dead with nothing to offer the core gamer. In short, the lowest point of the Wii in terms of image. Here, it's the opposite: the Wii U may have a small install base, but the view of the Wii U in general is far more positive and people are interested to see what's coming. All these combined, I think Xenoblade Chronicles X will cross 1mil without any trouble and outsell the 3DS game.

I think they got their name out with the Wii release. It's too bad the gem didn't sell as much as it deserved, moreover, it came at the end of the Wii lifespan. With a 3DS release and a dedicated Wii U following I'm sure it will sell far better. XCX> XBC 3D> XC

I checked some other games and you make a good point. Awful was probably too harsh of a word. I still don't think it sold that well, but I do understand there are reasons for that.

Fair, just dont want you to think it was awful in sales :)

I find it hard to believe XCX and XBC 3D won't outsell the Wii original.

There was just so much working against the Wii release; it was an unproven IP, it released late in the West, it arrived in the Wii's twilight years, it was heavily pirated, it had a limited run in North America, etc.

The newer games not only have a chance to avoid all these pitfalls, but will also benefit from digital sales and the promotion of the series in the recent Smash Bros.

Yeah, people should stop referring to XBC sales as crap. They're crap given how well received it was. But for a JRPG, they're pretty damn good. It's usually only Final Fantasy that gets in the millions.

I'm guessing the sequel will come top and hit about 1 million sales. In all of the polls I've seen it's got a lot of people hungry for it. It keeps coming out way on top of Splatoon for example, and only slightly behind Zelda. That's more or less my position on it too. Maybe even ahead of Zelda. Hard to say when we know so little about the latter.

1. Many IPs start out as unproven so this works against just about every other first game in the franchise ... 

2. Releasing late in other territories isn't an excuse seeing as how no next gen consoles were released at the time ... 

3. You might have a point there since the software output was paltry at the time ...

4. The people that had pirated it never intended to get it in the first so there was hardly any lost sales ...

5. It also had reprints ... 

There's a lot less handicaps than you think ...