One dip, boom doomed, I can already see these kind of threads exploding during summer. ''OMG the PS4 is around 100k no console leader selling 100m+ ever sold around 100k on a weekly basis'' (The DS, PS2 and probably the PS1 doesn't count)

Could depend on China, project Morpheus, and PS Now. A big must have game (a la cod4 last gen) wouldn't go amiss.

90M I think this gen will go till 2019 but Nintendo will release Wii U successor 2018

Technology and how advanced it is compared to PC is irrelevant. Mainstream does not care about that.

Ask 100 non-PC gamers what they would plug into their TV to play games from their couch and 99 people will answer with "console". Ask 100 people if they would like to build a PC or just use a console that is cheaper and you will have a similar result. Pixels and performance are absolutely irrlevant to most people's decision between the 2 choices.

Devs have been gimping their games in favor of consoles for the last 5 years when PCs were miles above anything a console could do. This will not change this gen and especially not this early when PC and consoles are closest.

If the specs between PCs and consoles would matter one bit, consoles would've died out by the end of gen 6.

Where do you think most of the casuals that bought into motion controls and handhelds went after last gen? Certainly not PC. Meaning the biggest deflux from dedicated consoles went to mobile, making it the main perpetrator of lost revenue in the console industry. Hence mobile is the greatest danger for consoles today, not PC. Ask Nintendo about this.

This is a short and a very front-loaded gen, Ps4 is behind Wii (ps4-2014: 14m vs Wii-2007: 16.5m, 2008: 24m, 2009:22m and 2010: 17 m) And is starting 2015 almost lower than 2014. So no, lots of people want to believe it will, but is not going to outsell the Wii.

  Ps4 < 100 m.

shouldn't be much of a problem

Lol! VR attracting casuals? I don't think so. Casuals are into devices that are cheap and easy and let you pretend you're not really playing a video game. VR doesn't fit any of those criteria.

Anyway I think 100 million is achievable, but my guess is it will fall short of that. People got all excited about 18.5M at the end of last year, but that's still only ~14 million for the calendar year, which is good, but not necessarily 100 million good. It wil all depend on how long the generation runs. Given Wii U is staring down the barrel of being the worst selling Nintendo console in all of history, and Xb one is looking like it could achieve a 50% reduction compared to 360, those possibilities point to the generation being rather short. Sony won't stick around in the 8th generation by itself so unless PS4 can do 100 million in 5 years it probably won't get there. In some ways, if you want PS4 to sell over 100 million then you need to hope that Xb one sells pretty well too so that MS can feel comfortable with having a 7 year cycle. As long as NES2K is about as powerful as PS4 and not an actual full generation leap, then it might not matter if Nintendo jumps to the 9th gen, as long as MS doesn't jump too.

I think the key thing to remember here is that the PS4 (and XBO) is still being held back by 3rd party devs making games for Gen 7 consoles.

A lot of people still see no real reason to jump in to Gen 8. Give it another 12-18 Months when developers have fully transitioned to Gen 8 and Sony's own developers are really pushing what the system is capable of and we will have a better idea of where the roof is.

When i talk about casual i talk about games like Cook mama and Nintendo dogs did any ps2 or ps4 casuals games like those two sold as much as them the question is no.

If you put Fifa and Call of duty games in casuals range then those gamers never left home consoles

Not saying VR will get the casuals but if anything pushes the PS4 beyond 100m (and it will need casuals for that) then VR will do it.

Look at how the casuals jumped on Kinect last gen. With the right marketing push(Facebook says hello) it could get a lot of casuals hot and bothered. And if VR gets a major popularity boost Sony's VR will profit most from it since it's on a console and the most popular one no less.

Nonetheless I agree with your analysis.