Sanity Check: PS4 still on its path to 100m+?

[vivster]

binary solo said:

vivster said:

Not trying to jump the gun because of sub par January sales. Just a quick check what's the current average estimate here.

I'm still sticking with my sub 100m prediction that I had since launch, with only VR having the potential to bring back enough casuals to beat it. I know I'm in the minority with this.

Lol! VR attracting casuals? I don't think so. Casuals are into devices that are cheap and easy and let you pretend you're not really playing a video game. VR doesn't fit any of those criteria.

Anyway I think 100 million is achievable, but my guess is it will fall short of that. People got all excited about 18.5M at the end of last year, but that's still only ~14 million for the calendar year, which is good, but not necessarily 100 million good. It wil all depend on how long the generation runs. Given Wii U is staring down the barrel of being the worst selling Nintendo console in all of history, and Xb one is looking like it could achieve a 50% reduction compared to 360, those possibilities point to the generation being rather short. Sony won't stick around in the 8th generation by itself so unless PS4 can do 100 million in 5 years it probably won't get there. In some ways, if you want PS4 to sell over 100 million then you need to hope that Xb one sells pretty well too so that MS can feel comfortable with having a 7 year cycle. As long as NES2K is about as powerful as PS4 and not an actual full generation leap, then it might not matter if Nintendo jumps to the 9th gen, as long as MS doesn't jump too.

Not saying VR will get the casuals but if anything pushes the PS4 beyond 100m (and it will need casuals for that) then VR will do it.

Look at how the casuals jumped on Kinect last gen. With the right marketing push(Facebook says hello) it could get a lot of casuals hot and bothered. And if VR gets a major popularity boost Sony's VR will profit most from it since it's on a console and the most popular one no less.

Nonetheless I agree with your analysis.