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Forums - Gaming Discussion - EDIT: The position has been filled (I bet the next Ninty console will be close to or less than PS4 in power)

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Ruler on 12 February 2015

Well nintendo games dont need aditional power anymore as they reached their graphical needs so seems pretty legit. Maybe next mario etc. game will look like knack, cartoony but more beatifull enviroment and physics



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NobleTeam360 on 12 February 2015

Well if the following year PS5 and Xbox Two come out then it won't really matter as those two will still trounce the next Nintendo consoles.



BlueFalcon on 12 February 2015
hsrob said:

Depends on when it's released. The Tegra X1 is delivering 1 teraflop next month in tablet format which is pretty significant. Who knows what will be possible in another 18-24 months.

It also depends on whether Nintendo insists on following the small form factor, low power consumption of the Wiis. Considering how small the Japanese market is these days I just don't think it's a goal worth pursuing.

The 1 TFlop figure has been picked up and ran with by most non-technical sites. All modern GPUs and consoles are measured in 32-bit FP32 flops. 1 TFlop on X1 is only possible at FP16; and that rate drops to just 0.512 TFlops at FP32 vs. 1.84 TFlops for PS4. 

http://www.anandtech.com/show/8811/nvidia-tegra-x1-preview/2

The 2nd mistake almost everyone makes is directly comparing NVidia to AMD floating point performance. It's simply not comparable and never has been a good estimate of actual gaming performance. In fact, floating point performance is a very vague gauge of gaming performance overall even when comparing AMD vs. AMD or NV vs. NV cards:

1. NV GTX 680 is 35-40% faster than a GTX580 but has 3.25 TFlop floating vs. 1.58 TFlops for the 580.

2. NV GTX980 is about 10% faster than an AMD 290X but has just 4.98 TFlops vs. 5.63 TFLops for the 290X. 

3. AMD HD7970Ghz is 70-75% faster than AMD HD6970 but the former only has 4.3 TFlops vs. 2.84 for the 6970, or just 51% more. 

The explanation is very simple -- factors such as instructions per clock cycle, L2 cache, ROPs, Texture full-rate, shader and geometry performance, memory bandwidth and color fill-rate throughput and efficiencies matter a lot more than raw Floating Point performance for games. 

You are right that in 2-3 years performance will be leaps and bounds beyond today's products because GPU makers will adopt 14nm nodes and so on. AMD should also have their brand new Zen architecture made on 14nm node by end of 2016 iirc. That means if Nintendo wanted to, they could make a console at $499 way more powerful than a PS4, with CPU and GPU 50-100% more powerful actually, since 8 Jaguar cores are weak and the GPU is only about HD7850 level of performance. However, if the next Nintendo console is a lot more powerful, but has a low install base, most developers will not spend the extra money to take advantage of all that power since it will be too costly to amortize those costs across a small number of game sales relative to then large PS4/XB1 userbase. 

For this reason, I think N should aims at a $299 console with PS4's power and no more, around late 2016, early 2017. If we project ~ 6 year life for PS4/XB1, next gen consoles would launch Fall 2019. Nintendo has no choice though because the Wii U can't last until 2019. That means Nintendo's best bet is to make 2 consoles between end of 2016 and 2021.  Nintendo then could launch a PS5/XB2 competitor around 2021, albeit 2 years behind. Also, we don't know if Sony/MS will wait until 2020 to launch their next consoles but we do know that after Zelda U and 2015, Nintendo will probably have nothing worthy for the Wii U which means late 2016/early 2017 is a perfect time for them to launch a new console as an intermediary strategy before Ps5/XB2 drop. 

If the console acts as an intermediary stop-gap console, it doesn't even need to be more powerful than PS4 imo. 



TheGoldenBoy on 12 February 2015
the_dengle said:

That's a fool's bet. I don't expect their next console to be anywhere near the PS4 in terms of raw power. It'll probably be barely more powerful than the Wii U, since they've proven that has all the power they need to make the games they want to make.

Basically Nintendo's next-gen console will be to the Wii U what the New 3DS is to the 3DS... with a better name, god willing.

New Wii U



Miyamotoo on 12 February 2015

 

Kami said:
curl-6 said:

I ain't taking that bet, there's a fair chance it will be...

It's really up to timing. If the Console comes out in the next 2 years then It might be stronger unless nintendo tries the cheap rout and opts for a really cheap GPU. But I can't see nintendo going with something Weaker then the Jaguar. Since AMD has come out and said they are making Pumas for a 'consumer' the CPU side will atleast be stronger. With DDR4 out Nintendo could go that rout but I doubt they will put 8GB of DDr4 in one box. Maybe around 4 or so. 

My real conclusion is that It could possible be an x86 APU Puma. Probably with something like 2 to 4gb of DDr4 and a CPU with around as many shaders and such as a PS4. Faster CPU, Faster Ram, and On Par GPU would make Nintendos Next console ahead of the PS4 but only slightly. 

I can see this, more powerful cpu than PS4, similar graphic and 8GB DDR4 ram, seems to me pretty realistic.

I think next Nintendo console will be comparable with PS4, similar like Wii U vs PS360, but I dont think will be weaker, probably little stronger, and probably stronger cpu, because cpu is weakest part of PS4.

 

Soundwave said:

The next console will be less powerful than the PS4 because 

1.) It will be using the same components as the next handheld, just souped up. So it'll be able to probably run games at 1080p, but they'll still look similar to Wii U games (much like the GameCube > Wii situation). 

2.) I don't think Nintendo wants graphics any better than the Wii U. The games are already expensive enough to make that you can bankrupt a studio with even PS3/360 level visuals. Nintendo games look great on the Wii U as is, I think they're quite content with that level of visuals and don't have much interest in making a COD or Destiny or Gran Turismo or NBA 2K killer where graphics and realism matter. For Mario Kart? Something even just double the Wii U with more RAM would give you a gorgeous looking game.

The next Nintendo console will be similar or more powerful than PS4 beacuse:

1. Vith Wii U there target was 720p/30-60 fps without AA, vith next console the target will be 1080p/60fps vith AA.

2. They will want similar architecture and power like PS4 because third party, easiest way for porting and developing multiplatforms.

 

 

Soundwave said:

Too little, too late. 

The PS4 and X1 will be passing 80 million combined install base by fall 2017 (the soonest Nintendo could realistically mobilize a full generational leap from the Wii U and still have actual software to play on it). 

Same thing that happened to Wii U would happen to your proposed system, people would ignore it. The PS4/XB1 have their established online communities (XBLA, PSN) and will have a headstart of hundreds of games in their library by then too. By then both systems will likely have had further price drops too. 

No one is going to give Nintendo a participation ribbon for showing up 4 years late to the party.

Wii U had much bigger mistakes then time of realase and hardware power, like terrible name and marketing (there still some people that think that Wii U is gamepad addon for Wii), bad launch, game droughts, no third party support...

I am pretty sure if Nintendo don't repeat that same Wii U mistakes and again release similar PS4 spec console, just this time around 2-3 years before next PS/Xbox consoles, will be selling much better than Wii U.




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hsrob on 12 February 2015
BlueFalcon said:
hsrob said:

Depends on when it's released. The Tegra X1 is delivering 1 teraflop next month in tablet format which is pretty significant. Who knows what will be possible in another 18-24 months.

It also depends on whether Nintendo insists on following the small form factor, low power consumption of the Wiis. Considering how small the Japanese market is these days I just don't think it's a goal worth pursuing.

The 1 TFlop figure has been picked up and ran with by most non-technical sites. All modern GPUs and consoles are measured in 32-bit FP32 flops. 1 TFlop on X1 is only possible at FP16; and that rate drops to just 0.512 TFlops at FP32 vs. 1.84 TFlops for PS4. 

http://www.anandtech.com/show/8811/nvidia-tegra-x1-preview/2

The 2nd mistake almost everyone makes is directly comparing NVidia to AMD floating point performance. It's simply not comparable and never has been a good estimate of actual gaming performance. In fact, floating point performance is a very vague gauge of gaming performance overall even when comparing AMD vs. AMD or NV vs. NV cards:

1. NV GTX 680 is 35-40% faster than a GTX580 but has 3.25 TFlop floating vs. 1.58 TFlops for the 580.

2. NV GTX980 is about 10% faster than an AMD 290X but has just 4.98 TFlops vs. 5.63 TFLops for the 290X. 

3. AMD HD7970Ghz is 70-75% faster than AMD HD6970 but the former only has 4.3 TFlops vs. 2.84 for the 6970, or just 51% more. 

The explanation is very simple -- factors such as instructions per clock cycle, L2 cache, ROPs, Texture full-rate, shader and geometry performance, memory bandwidth and color fill-rate throughput and efficiencies matter a lot more than raw Floating Point performance for games. 

You are right that in 2-3 years performance will be leaps and bounds beyond today's products because GPU makers will adopt 14nm nodes and so on. AMD should also have their brand new Zen architecture made on 14nm node by end of 2016 iirc. That means if Nintendo wanted to, they could make a console at $499 way more powerful than a PS4, with CPU and GPU 50-100% more powerful actually, since 8 Jaguar cores are weak and the GPU is only about HD7850 level of performance. However, if the next Nintendo console is a lot more powerful, but has a low install base, most developers will not spend the extra money to take advantage of all that power since it will be too costly to amortize those costs across a small number of game sales relative to then large PS4/XB1 userbase. 

For this reason, I think N should aims at a $299 console with PS4's power and no more, around late 2016, early 2017. If we project ~ 6 year life for PS4/XB1, next gen consoles would launch Fall 2019. Nintendo has no choice though because the Wii U can't last until 2019. That means Nintendo's best bet is to make 2 consoles between end of 2016 and 2021.  Nintendo then could launch a PS5/XB2 competitor around 2021, albeit 2 years behind. Also, we don't know if Sony/MS will wait until 2020 to launch their next consoles but we do know that after Zelda U and 2015, Nintendo will probably have nothing worthy for the Wii U which means late 2016/early 2017 is a perfect time for them to launch a new console as an intermediary strategy before Ps5/XB2 drop. 

If the console acts as an intermediary stop-gap console, it doesn't even need to be more powerful than PS4 imo. 

Interesting to know because to be honest :) I haven't really been folowing this too closely, just saw the headline. It will still be interesting to see what level of real-world performance the X1 is capable of (i haven't seen any real-world benchmarks)

I think my main question still stands though, will Nintendo go for low power consumption/small form factor or will they forego this approach.  The WiiU could have been a fair bit more powerful, at the same price point, if Nintendo had just used off-the-shelf parts.



BlueFalcon on 12 February 2015

The problem with Nintendo is even if they put 5960X and 980 SLI inside their consoles, they have alienated the 3rd party developers so much that they need to completely reevaluate their approach.

1. They need some differentiating factor for online. For example, since Sony and MS tend to charge more for online games, Nintendo should charge 10-15% less for new online game sales. Instant market differentiator.

2. To lure back 3rd parties, Nintendo should offer more favorable royalty rates.

3. Nintendo should be working on their key 1st party titles so that Mario, Zelda, Metroid are on the console at launch and within 6 months. Get that install base as high as possible.

4. Offer fully upgradable hard drive like PS4 and have a traditional controller that lasts twice as long as PS4's.

5. Keep online gaming free but make it robust like PSN/Live. Offer subscription based online with free games.

6. Let your friends access your gaming library remotely to try out any game for 2-3 hours. Steam allows Pc gamers to share games with up to 10 friends!!



binary solo on 12 February 2015

Launching in 2016 at $250, I think you'd be right. Launching in 2017 at $300 I think it would have a power edge over PS4, unless it has a tablet controller again to force Nintendo to gimp the power again. But I think they will make the tablet controller an optional extra.



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RenCutypoison on 12 February 2015

I hardly see HDS being as powerful as ps4 =p



curl-6 on 12 February 2015
Tachikoma said:

If you win the bet, nintendo is in for an extremely rough next-gen.
Theyre too late for the jump to this processing level, just as they were with the wiiu getting to roughly ps3/360 level, only difference is, the jump from wiiu to roughly-ps4 level is much less than 360-xbo or ps3-ps4, and significantly less than wii-wiiu.

If I were you, i'd hope Nintendo held out till microsoft and sony released theirs, and actually put something out around the same performance level, preferably with the same architecture too.

I agree with you.

I should probably have clarified; this is more about what I expect to happen, not what I want to happen.