yes | |||
| no | 132 | 100.00% | |
| Total: | 132 | ||
Kerotan said:
|
Sorry, I don`t know that info. I figure with yes enabled, most people would pick that, but with how consoles are doing so far, Wii U is def in a far worse position than Xbox is.
Dance my pretties!
The Official Art Thread - The Official Manga Thread - The Official Starbound Thread
i hope not.
| walsufnir said: 2016? Wow, that's a bold prediction  It will easily. |
I nearly hope it does just so I can bump your comment in 18 months. FYI I'm not predicting anything just asking the good people of chartz what they think.
| Shadow1980 said: I almost thought you meant by the end of June of this year, which is completely impossible, but then I saw you wrote "2016." Well, that may be more plausible, but still unlikely. Let's assume the XBO gets a 30% increase in year-over-year sales this year, which would yield just under 10 million units this year and bring the lifetime total to about 20.75M. Now, let's further assume that 2015 is the peak year for the XBO (the second full calendar year being the most common peak year for a system) and that it declines by only 10% YoY next year, which means 9 million for all of 2016. Since Q4 sales are typically about half the yearly tally, if we divide the remaining quarters up evenly that gives us about 3 million sold in the first half of 2016, which brings it to 23.75M. Now, if the XBO gets a 40% YoY increase this year (which is optimistic given the performances of other systems in the past) but we leave the rest of the above parameters the same, we get 10.75M for 2015 and 3.6M for Q1+Q2 2016, which gives us a LTD tally of just over 25 million. Now, lets assume that the Wii U declines 10% YoY this year. That would give us just under 3.2M for the year and bring the end-2015 LTD total to about 12 million. Let's also assume it declines 20% YoY in 2016. Again assuming Q4 is 50% of the year's sales and Q1-Q3 split the remainder evenly, that would yield 850k for the first half of 2016, bringing the lifetime total to almost 13 million. This means that in the above scenario the XBO falls short of doubling the Wii U's LTD sales by the mid-point of 2016. Of course, the Wii U could fall more than that. If it was only at 12M LTD, that means that the more optimistic scenario for the XBO would cause it to just pass the 2x Wii U mark. If the Wii U does extremely poorly and sells only 11 million by mid-2016, then the XBO would handily double it. However, I doubt the Wii U will drop off that rapidly. If I had to assign odds to the XBO doubling the Wii U by the end of the first half of 2016, I'd give it a one-in-three chance. Certainly possible, but unlikely. Now, it will almost certainly double the Wii U's LTD sales by the end of 2016. In the most optimistic scenarios for both above, the XBO would end 2016 with at least 32 million sold LTD while the Wii U would be at around the 14.7 million mark. In the more pessimistic scenario for the XBO, it would still be sitting at 29.75M, several hundred thousand ahead of double the Wii U's sales. Of course, this is all just conjecture based on historical trends. We'll get a clearer picture of how things might likely pan out as the year progresses. |
Excellent and detailed analysis. I don't think it's a dead cert hence why I asked. It could come right down to the last month.
Yes
Kerotan said:
|
This is against the forum rules so feel free to do so :)
It all depends.... Let's assume that the Wii U will be at 14 Million units sold by then which seems doable I would think.
That means Xbox needs to sell 17 million consoles in 16 months... Doubt that happens to be honest unless they lower the price even more..and they probably will so possibly.
WiiU should be at 13m by then.
X1 will probably miss it by a million or so. ~25m.
Now if you said by the end of Q3 2016...
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