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Forums - Sales Discussion - Xbox Undertracked!!

Yeah, this pretty much confirms the X360 as the 2nd place for the 7th gen.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

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I too dont think Xone in under tracked, but X360 definitely is. The software still is going strong. Its probably at least a million ahead of PS3.



i knew the author of this post from the title.

User was moderated for this post - Conegamer



Seece said:

So MS just released figures and they shipped 6.6m Xbox consoles during the holiday Q.

My estimates (though they are irrelavant to overal Xbox console sales if you notice the title) are that 4.5m are XB1 and 2.1m are 360. This puts 360 at around 86.9m and XB1 around 11.9m.

However you spin the ratios, it's a fact that combined they're at 98.8 million shipped.

We have 95.5m sold, that leaves 3.3m on shelves which is a lot for dying 360 and XB1.

FYI, I don't think XB1 is undertracked, just 360, heavily. (like 1.5m~)

Freudian slip? LoL. if you want to make sure there is no accidental or deliberate misinterpretation you should write "...for XB1 and a dying 360."

Anyway, 3.3M on shelves across both systems is not as big a discrepancy as it looks. I wouldn't be surprised if Xb one had 1.5 million on shelves at present. That's about the maximum extent of what I think might be in the retail channels so for a what's possible analysis I think you can say 1.5M of that 3.3M is Xb one.

So that leaves 1.8M for 360, I agree that's too much, but not so much as to be an outrageous discrepancy. Even for a dying system 1 million in the retail channel is within the bounds of possibility, considering all the markets and retail outlets they need to have covered. 360 is still being actively marketed, indeed here it's probably being marketed more strongly than XB one. All the boxing day sale ads were PS4 and Xbox 360 for instance, no Xb one boxing day promotions. In terms of what's possible I think 800K-1 million on shelves is theoretically possible. MS could, for instance, have decided to ship out half a year's worth of projected 360 sales. And if MS is looking to kill off 360 manufacturing this year they might want to get end of life inventory out into the retail channels sooner rather than later.  

360 could be, IMO, up to 1 million undertracked, which is only 1.16% error. but even at 1.5M it's still only a 1.74% error. If it wasn't for the fact that this error rate is the difference between being ahead of PS3 and being behind PS3 would this thread actually exist? Or would we say, actually VGC's LTD tracking of 360 isn't too bad. IMO, objectively speaking if the LTD for a console on VGC is within 2% of actual sales (which no one knows with 100% accuracy) that is good enough for all practical purposes.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

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IFireflyl said:

So does this mean that we're all done with this thread?

It should be dying those numbers are already bullshit, I can't believe people are actually using those for predicting Xbox One shipments/sales



Proud to be a Californian.

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There's a decent chance that 3.3 mil 360's and xbone are sitting on selves between the two of them but trying to figure out what's on retailers' selves is difficult at best.



kowenicki said:
colafitte said:

OK, I see your post and in fact, I agree with you, but I don't see how can you assume one is beating the other when we don't know PS3 shipments. That's what I was saying and I thought you had numbers for PS3 to validate your opinion. If you have them, I'll be glad to know them.

Look, if X360 is still ahead of PS3, I'm open to accept it, but I want to be convinced with true facts.


Well they release results soon, but the dying quicker is already a fact.  To be fair, yes, retaining 2nd place is yet to be proven.


I'm still waiting for something that confirms your theory. Do we have PS3 shipments of 2014 until September that say so, at least??. How was the situation a quarter ago for PS3 and X360??. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't remember X360 had better shipments back then against PS3 (during 2014) with official numbers for both.



binary solo said:
Seece said:

So MS just released figures and they shipped 6.6m Xbox consoles during the holiday Q.

My estimates (though they are irrelavant to overal Xbox console sales if you notice the title) are that 4.5m are XB1 and 2.1m are 360. This puts 360 at around 86.9m and XB1 around 11.9m.

However you spin the ratios, it's a fact that combined they're at 98.8 million shipped.

We have 95.5m sold, that leaves 3.3m on shelves which is a lot for dying 360 and XB1.

FYI, I don't think XB1 is undertracked, just 360, heavily. (like 1.5m~)

Freudian slip? LoL. if you want to make sure there is no accidental or deliberate misinterpretation you should write "...for XB1 and a dying 360."

Anyway, 3.3M on shelves across both systems is not as big a discrepancy as it looks. I wouldn't be surprised if Xb one had 1.5 million on shelves at present. That's about the maximum extent of what I think might be in the retail channels so for a what's possible analysis I think you can say 1.5M of that 3.3M is Xb one.

So that leaves 1.8M for 360, I agree that's too much, but not so much as to be an outrageous discrepancy. Even for a dying system 1 million in the retail channel is within the bounds of possibility, considering all the markets and retail outlets they need to have covered. 360 is still being actively marketed, indeed here it's probably being marketed more strongly than XB one. All the boxing day sale ads were PS4 and Xbox 360 for instance, no Xb one boxing day promotions. In terms of what's possible I think 800K-1 million on shelves is theoretically possible. MS could, for instance, have decided to ship out half a year's worth of projected 360 sales. And if MS is looking to kill off 360 manufacturing this year they might want to get end of life inventory out into the retail channels sooner rather than later.  

360 could be, IMO, up to 1 million undertracked, which is only 1.16% error. but even at 1.5M it's still only a 1.74% error. If it wasn't for the fact that this error rate is the difference between being ahead of PS3 and being behind PS3 would this thread actually exist? Or would we say, actually VGC's LTD tracking of 360 isn't too bad. IMO, objectively speaking if the LTD for a console on VGC is within 2% of actual sales (which no one knows with 100% accuracy) that is good enough for all practical purposes.

I think considering going forward 360 will be selling about 100k per month, 1m in the channel for 360 is far far too much.



 

Xbox One could be at 11.1m or 11.2m, but yeah that is a lot of under tracking for the 360.

The funny thing is that the US is already over tracked by more than 1 million (I think it was 2 million), so it's doing way better in Europe/ROTW.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

kowenicki said:

is this vgc?  lol

did you read the OP?

Where in the OP can I find PS3 sales?