3DS I don't believe will reach 20 million.

PS4 v X1 is very price sensitive. If MS keep X1 at $399 for the foreseeable future, Sony will win all NPDs in that time period. If MS wait too long to lower the price, Sony will be at a stage where they can immediately counter.

Not sure why everyone is focusing so heavily on exclusives, I thought we had pretty much agreed that their impact in the grand scheme of things is pretty minimal. But if you want to talk about them, it seems MS is counting on another big holiday season to claw back losing all of the slower months. Halo is bigger than Uncharted in the US, though I think the gap between them pushing people one way or the other has never been closer. Quantum Break does not seem like a system-shifter to me, nor does another Forza game. Tomb Raider is a big name, and may sell some units to those unaware of it later coming to PS4 (if it does, hopefully MS can just come out and clarify what the situation is).

I will give the nod to PS4, due to it clearly being the console of choice when prices are at parity, and not having had a price cut yet to entice people close to buying the console, but just being held back on price.

Your points are correct, but your conclusion is not. Momentum means increasing pace; if anything, XB1's momtentum is decreasing due to 1) Recent price increase 2) Lack of exclusives for the next half a year or more. 

Really tough to say, due to all the reasons you suggested.

PS4 is selling well, but I think since 3DS will make it simply because it is closer. Will be really close though and 3DS may just trickle over the 20mill mark.

ALSO, where did you get those numbers from? On the platform totals section it lists each console as a few million more than what you posted. Is that just overtracking?

the 3ds has the lead but its slowing down a bit. I think the end of the xbox price drop and all the exclusives coming up in 2015 will boost ps4 sales significantly tough.

Sunset Overdrive got an 80 on metacritic, LBP3 got 79 on metacritic....

When Seece says "their exclusives", he means the BIG exclusives like Halo and Gears of War. Not tiny exclusives like Sunset Overdrive.

Now, Seece, I'll agree with you that MS' holiday lineup is stronger for the US, although I think Uncharted is only getting bigger in the US, of course certainly it has a looong way to go before it gets bigger than Halo (probably won't happen ever), BUT I think the PS4 will win 2015, not by a big margin though, 1 million or so tops, and in the end I think the PS4 will also be the first to reach 20m, but the XBO will no doubt be far behind. But as you say, we really have no idea what MS and Sony decide to do troughout the gen, and if MS continue to be really aggressive while Sony are complacent, then they'll easily take US.

It was a fire sale no matter how much you wish other wise,  X1 is droping like a rock on amazon, ndp will be mirror image of what it was through 2014.  They were equal price before to and you know damn well how things played out.  Position is no better, what little faith they won back with a fire sale will be erased with their game drought whiel PS exclusives drop one after another.  

Even with lower YoY sale. I think the 3DS will reach the 20M LTD first.

Followed by the Xbox One and then PS4.

I'd go with:

1: PS4
2: XB1
3: 3DS

Damn, another long gen.

PS4 first, X1 second and then finally 3DS.

PS4/X1 will peak in 2016 and probably both pass 20m in the same year.

3DS has been out for almost 4 years, has already passed its peak and is on decline (N3DS should level this year). Wih those years on its side its only at 13m. It will be at least another 3 years before it reaches 20m and may not do it at all.