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3DS I don't believe will reach 20 million.

PS4 v X1 is very price sensitive. If MS keep X1 at $399 for the foreseeable future, Sony will win all NPDs in that time period. If MS wait too long to lower the price, Sony will be at a stage where they can immediately counter.

Not sure why everyone is focusing so heavily on exclusives, I thought we had pretty much agreed that their impact in the grand scheme of things is pretty minimal. But if you want to talk about them, it seems MS is counting on another big holiday season to claw back losing all of the slower months. Halo is bigger than Uncharted in the US, though I think the gap between them pushing people one way or the other has never been closer. Quantum Break does not seem like a system-shifter to me, nor does another Forza game. Tomb Raider is a big name, and may sell some units to those unaware of it later coming to PS4 (if it does, hopefully MS can just come out and clarify what the situation is).

I will give the nod to PS4, due to it clearly being the console of choice when prices are at parity, and not having had a price cut yet to entice people close to buying the console, but just being held back on price.