I think Smash should have bundled, would be more of a system seller like MK8 instead of just selling to people who already have a Wii U

Don't they already kinda suffer from redundancy? Wii U has sold like 40 million less than 3DS to date, clearly outside of the most hardcore Nintendo fans, very few people are buying both, just like it was during the N64 & GC eras as well.

Lifetime sales for 3DS+Wii U will likely be around 80 million (3DS-65m, Wii U-15m), a well done unified concept could sell on par or worst case scenario sell slightly less. The main benefit is that Nintendo can maximize their software output and certain games will no longer under perform simply do to being on a low install base device. Like I said, many Wii U games aren't selling to their potential because Wii U is a low selling device but if these games had a 50-70 million install base to sell to, they would likely sell much more.

Would 3D World/Mario Kart 8 only be at 2-3 million each if they had released on a device with over 50 million owners? Looking at 3D Land/Mario Kart 7 sales being 9-10 million each on 3DS, I would say these games would easily have sold 2-3 as much. Same goes for a game like Donkey Kong, it's typically a multimillion selling series but on Wii U it's struggling to sell 1 million, whereas Returns 3D (a 3 year old port) sold about twice that. If Returns 3D never released and Tropical Freeze was instead released on 3DS in 2013, it would likely sell something like 3-5 million.

With a unified approach, Nintendo can offer these devices lineups that look like 3DS' 2013, every single year.

I'm not sure Nintendo will bring out a later home console. I think their next hybrid handheld/home hybrid is basically withdrawing from the home console market. Nintendo have lost support from third parties and consumers have come to expect weak over-priced game consoles from Nintendo. So a hybrid console is basically saying buy our handheld console which you can also use on a tv. It will likely have a pitiful specification that makes it uncompetitive as a home console and will sell accordingly.

I was expecting a mario kart bundle in the uk at a competitive price. Something like £179 with decent marketing but it hasn't happened. Nintendo seem to have given up on wii u.

Sales figures for the wii u console have not been impressive its having a christmas barely above ps3 and 360 which are end of life. It's no where near matching the sales of ps4 or xbone. Xbone in UK/USA that is, I realise that is failing most other regions.

The wii u basic is still being sold despite production stopping like 18 months ago. Nintendo are still sitting on old stock.

Lets not forget that whatever you believe about the wii u specification in real terms both ps3 and 360 have a much wider technically more impressive range of games available at incredibly low prices nowadays.

You wonder if all the wii u's that Nintendo had made in the first year or so will be all that they actually need. I can imagine a wii u production line in Foxconn that is just one line in a small corner somewhere that is only run on thursday afternoons between 2 and 3pm. Maybe even the wii u premium production line is now inoperative, waiting for orders.

If this isn't the most rose-tinted glasses view on things...

Well what do u suggest they do instead? Chase after the mainstream AAA crowd that PS/XB own or chase the casual crowd that iOS/Android now own?

I know u are a fan of the Wii/DS but do u honestly think they can replicate that type of success again among casual gamers? Yes, Nintendo made some big mistakes at the beginning of this generation but even if they released a $250 console, using an updated Wii Remote and focused on games like Wii Sports/Wii Fit, would we really be seeing drastically better sales? Or if they released a $150 handheld with games like Brain Training/Nintendogs being the main focus, would we be seeing sales more similar to the DS?

Maybe ever so slightly better, but for the most part no, the main demographic for these type of games no longer wants to buy dedicated hardware to play these $30-60 games. They now have smartphones, devices they own regardless of gaming, that offer 100's or possibly even 1000's of games for free. These devices also have many health related apps and education based games so there is very little incentive for anyone to buy a console/handheld to play these type of games.

I'm pretty sure that u agree with me that it's a horrible idea for Nintendo to make a high-powered, $400 console to compete with PS5/XB4 and try winning over 3rd parties and mainstream AAA crowd (if they make a console with similar specs as PS4/XB1, they are essentially making another Wii U so they would have to go one step ahead of that with their next console).

Going for the casual crowd is a dead-end, going for the mainstream crowd is a dead-end, both of these demographics are happy with their current offerings and Nintendo would have a mighty struggle and probably lose a ton of money trying to win these crowds over. The best option to me seems to be capitalize on the 80 million or so lifetime install base for 3DS+Wii U (might be more like 50-70m when u take into account people who own both devices or bought multiple versions of 3DS) and release a shit load of high quality 1st party titles that can sell very well with these numbers.

Games like Mario platformers, Pokemon, Mario Kart, Smash Bros are all capable of selling 10 million or more, Donkey Kong, Legend of Zelda, Luigi's Mansion, Animal Crossing are capable of selling over 5 million, Mario spinoffs, Kirby, Metroid, Kid Icarus, Fire Emblem, Pikmin, Yoshi, Xenoblade, etc are capable of selling 1-3 million on a 50-70 million install base. Then u also have some Japanese 3rd party titles like Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest, Youkai Watch which are capable of selling strong numbers and dozens of kid-friendly western 3rd party titles each year which bring in profits for Nintendo.

There are also some other things I think Nintendo can do to bring in strong profits. Continue to support and expand Amiibo with figurines and cards. They can use Quality of Life to try attracting the fitness/education crowd they had last gen. A $50-100 children's educational tablet with software based around Nintendo ip similar to what Leapfrog/Vtech have could be successful and get young children familiar with their ip so they become fans of their games later on, they can also allow Amiibo support for this. Various inexpensive health/fitness devices like they have already talked about could be successful, for example they could release an updated, rebranded, standalone Wii Fit type device for something like $70-100, it probably won't sell nearly as well as Wii Fit did but it could still be a moderate success and be profitable. Continue to build strong relations with indies to make the eShop more comparable to the App Store/Google Play. Make the Virtual Console a big deal again, even better than it was on Wii and release an optional subscription fee, something like $50/year gives unlimited access to the VC, this could bring in alot of money for Nintendo.

Overall make their dedicated hardware appeal to their current userbase, build up Amiibo, eShop & Virtual Console to bring in strong profits and use Quality of Life to attract children/parents with health/fitness/education based devices. Nintendo doesn't need to sell like Wii/DS in order to have strong software sales and big profits.

A price cut would likely give a boost, but for whatever reasons, maybe volume too low to price reduce, it is not going down.

The 2015 games are nice for fans but don't have the console selling power of MK8 & Smash, so I think 2014 will be peak year.

Is Wii U going to meet Nintendo's forekast 3.6 Million this year?  A few months ago I thought it would pass that, but now I'm not sure it will get to 3.6.

I think OP is right. As long as Nintendo can be profitable with that number and they're collaborating with major western third parties in designing their next console, they'll be fine.

I think they will slightly pass the 3.6 million goal, 4 million at the absolute maximum though.

As for 2015 releases, I agree. Mario Party, Yoshi, Kirby aren't likely to move much hardware, I would put them similar to Pikmin, Tropical Freeze, Wii Party U. Star Fox has been gone for so long and we know next to nothing about it, so it's hard to comment on that. Xenoblade looks great but is pretty niche, I think it could match or slightly exceed it's predeccessors sales but won't move a ton of hardware. Devil's Third will probably only sell similar numbers to Bayonetta 2. Of course Zelda will sell strong and move some units over the holidays but with Wind Waker HD and Hyrule Warriors out, there is a good chance that a pretty large percentage of the Zelda fanbase already owns a Wii U. Mario Maker & Splatoon I think have very strong potential, but that potential will likely go unnoticed. Mario Maker will surely sell well but with NSMBU+3D World already available, I can't see it causing a massive increase. Splatoon looks great and would likely be a strong seller on a Nintendo console with a large install base but on Wii U it's potential is kinda limited, I could see it selling about 2 million lifetime but again won't be a huge system seller.

Overall 2015 seems to have a good lineup of exclusives but many of them appeal to the fanbases of games that have already released. Perhaps a price cut along with better pacing of their releases can result in sales not dropping too much YoY. Overall I think Wii U in 2015 will sell less than 2014 (im guessing 3.8-4 million) but more than 2013 (3.1 million) so 3.5 million give or take a few 100k.

Let's not pretend that price isn't an issue. Just look at how the XB1 took off in North America. 2015 has a solid lineup in store - if Nintendo can match price to perceived market value, they'll be better off.

I'd like to see a $250 Mario Maker bundle w/free AAA download in the late spring/early summer followed by an aggressive $229 Zelda bundle for Black Friday.

I can't see how, at those price points, a carefully timed 2015 lineup wouldn't sell at least 20-30% YoY over 2014.

Thoughts?

Well it also depends on PS4/XB1 prices at the time. Perhaps these consoles get official price cuts to $299 next year. Wii U at $249 vs PS4/XB1 at $299 puts these console very close in price and could result in a mediocre boost for Wii U.

In all honestly, a $50 price cut and better release schedule will just help keep the YoY decline to a minimum, I expect Wii U to be down about 15-20% next year.